The Myth of the Math and Science Shortage

[fastpat]

Of course there's no shortage, Bush is, as usual, just vying for additional government power through federal handout money.

The Myth of the Math and Science Shortage

by Llewellyn H. Rockwell, Jr.

[Posted on Tuesday, February 07, 2006]

Why do we keep falling for this? Once in every second-term presidency, the chief executive lectures the country about the impending disaster of a shortage of mathematicians and scientists. People think: oh no, we'd better get on the stick and create some in a hurry!

Thus does the President want to spend $50 billion over 10 years � a figure these people made up out of whole cloth � and we are all supposed to submit, cough up, and turn our sons and daughters into natural-science brainiacs. And the President is just sure that his great job-training mission is not limited to Silicon Valley but extends to all cities, rural areas, and ghettos in America.

He is not only raising false hopes, diverting career paths, and wasting money, he is raising a non-problem and purporting to solve it with a non-solution. The central-planning approach to boosting science was tried and failed in every totalitarian country, and the same will be true in nominally free ones as well. Still, it seems that megalomaniacs just can't resist the urge to push the idea, which is why mathematicians and scientists leftover from Soviet days are driving cabs and tending bars in today's Russia.

Let's say the president made a huge stink about the shortage of teeth cleaners, web designers, dancers, or piano tuners. We might more clearly recognize the error. Professions are things chosen by individuals as they follow market signals. If there is a shortage, the wages of the people with these specializations would go up, thereby drawing more people into the profession. People would rush to study teeth cleaning and the like. This influx of new labor would push wages down again. When the wages get too low, people leave these professions and find others.

Thus does the market for labor specializations work rather well, here, there, and everywhere. Wages aren't the only consideration for why people go into some fields and not others, but it is a major factor. The market provides a helpful signaling mechanism to assist people in the development of certain skills. Shortages and surpluses resolve themselves.

No presidential speeches are necessary. No commission needs to be established. No taxpayer dollars need to be expended to make it all happen. We need only pay attention to the signals of the market and follow our own self-interest. The shortages and surpluses are systematically driven toward equilibrium, provided there is no government intervention to spoil the process.

Think of how jobs have changed. We have fewer people around today who know how to farm because fewer people are necessary to do the job. More kids than ever are going into computer sciences because of the perception that these fields will be lucrative in the future. In neither case was a government program necessary. People entering the job market find out quickly what is in demand and what isn't and compare that to their own capacity for doing the job.

The reason the whole math and science racket bamboozles us again and again has to do with our own limitations and our perceptions of foreign countries. We think: heck I know nothing of these subjects, so I can believe that there is a shortage! And surely math and science are the keys to just about everything. And look at those Japanese kids in school that we see on television. They can run circles around the tattooed bums that populate American public schools. We are surely "falling behind!"

In the first place, it wouldn't actually matter if it were true. The whole point of the international division of labor is that we benefit from the skills of everyone around the world. If there were one country in the world where everyone knew math and science � call it Nerdistan � and one other country in the world where everyone specialized in art and literature � call it Poetistan � both countries would enjoy the benefits of both talents provided they were engaged in trade. The Nerds could enjoy poetry and the Poets would have lots of hand-held contraptions. And since the professions in both countries were presumably chosen by market means and voluntary choice, that configuration of talent yields the best of all possible worlds.

Apart from that, however, there is another consideration: none of the past predictions of a math-and-science shortage have ever come true. In fact, when Al Gore raised the same frenzy some years ago, some commentators noted that it is actually easier to make a case that we face a shortage of less skilled workers: people to drive trucks, work in warehouses, clean kitchens and hotels, take care of kids, and work on docks. Here is probably where we are going to see the wage growth in the future.

In any case, people who have studied this in detail have reached an inconclusive verdict, except to observe that current unemployment rates among math and science people with PhDs are higher than the general population.

Also, as Daniel Greenberg writes, "Average salary scales for professors show the marketplace value of different disciplines: law, $109,478; business, $79,931; biological and biomedical sciences, $63,988; mathematics, $61,761." He points out that the editor of Science Magazine even noted the absurdity: "Why do we keep wishing to expand the supply of scientists, even though there is no evidence of imminent shortages?"

Actually, Donald Kennedy's entire article is worth a read. He points out that the worst thing that could happen is for government to attract people into a technical field that they really can't handle. They only end up working outside the area in which they are trained, or adding to the ranks of the unemployed. The scientists themselves know how hard the job market is, and of course they don't want more people in their field driving down wages. But the point stands: if wages were high enough, good people would be attracted to these fields without subsidies, badgering, and lecturing.

And what pretense does government have for purporting to know better than the market what jobs are necessary in the future? Somehow it seems especially egregious for the political class to get into this act, for this group is probably the least well educated in technical fields. Their specializations are in duplicity, glad handing, and handing out other people's money to those who are willing to participate in the racket of the redistributivist state. What do they know about the market for mathematicians?

So why does government continually badger us about the impending shortage of mathematicians and scientists? Maybe it is just a big excuse for getting and spending our money, and one excuse is as good as another. But maybe there is something more sinister at work. Perhaps government would like to create a glut of mathematicians and scientists who cannot find work in the private sector, and so these people would have no alternative but to go to work for the Pentagon and other warfare state agencies. Here, politicians imagine, they would create great gizmos to spy on people, centrally plan, and create smart bombs and other toys for politicians to play with.

Sound crazy? I'm open to any explanation, and perhaps this "conspiracy" view supposes the political class to be smarter than it really is. Regardless of the real reason, let us not suppose that the real reason is the one they give: that we face an imminent shortage. We don't. And if we did, the political class would be the last to know about it. To the extent they succeed, they will end up wasting people's time and money, and the person repainting your house might just have a PhD in mathematics.

Lew Rockwell is president of the Mises Institute and editor of LewRockwell.com. Rockwell@mises.org.

[BlueSkyJaunte]

Of course there's no shortage

You have absolutely, positively no farking clue what you're talking about.

[Icemaster]

When was the last time you had an opinion about something that wasnt cut and paste?

[widebody911]

He points out that the worst thing that could happen is for government to attract people into a technical field that they really can't handle. They only end up working outside the area in which they are trained, or adding to the ranks of the unemployed.

Because what we really need are people at McDonald's who can count change in moles

[Icemaster]

Originally posted by widebody911
Because what we really need are people at McDonald's who can count change in moles

Reminds me of the time I told the clerk at Arby's I wanted half a dozen roast beef sandwiches. Clerk sez OK, leans over to the next register and asks the clerk there "How many is that...?"

True story.

[Aurel]

All I know is that I receive resumes all the time from India and China from kids who want to to phDs and post-docs in my laboratory, but never did I get a request from a US born citizen.
Also, I have a collegue who has hired a US citizen for a phD, and he deeply regrets it because the guy is as lazy as it gets. It is fair to say that US born citizen are the minority in math and science fields, at least from what I can see on a 50,000 students campus.

Aurel

[BlueSkyJaunte]

For once Aurel and I are in complete agreement.

[Aurel]

You guys should realize something: professors like myself, who are not even US citizen (I have a green card) have the power to support student visas for foreigners, and facilitate the obtention of such student visas by providing research funding for the students.
Where it gets scary is that in the fields of maths and science, many of the professors are foreigners themselves, and tend to bring in students from their country of origin. Chinese professors are notorious for that, and many of their research crew are chinese.
So, it is funny that Bush not only is going to war to secure oil reserves for the chinese, but he is also funding the education of their students...just because there are not enough local US candidates.

Aurel

[fastpat]

Originally posted by Icemaster
When was the last time you had an opinion about something that wasnt cut and paste?

Number one, that wasn't opinion, it was an article based on actual fact.

Number two, it wasn't my opinion, but if I were to write an article that extensive, please be assured it would strive to be as lucid.

And last, do you want to argue facts, or prose styles, or something else?

[fastpat]

Originally posted by BlueSkyJaunte
You have absolutely, positively no farking clue what you're talking about.

So, you didn't read the article, did you?

[nostatic]

That article is FOS.

Look at the demographics at the universities. Look at who are doing the research in this country. Look where they go when their training is done.

This country is fat, slow and stupid. And conspiracy-theorists nonsense suggesting that the call for more science and math education is a plot to populate govt weapons research is unimitigatetd tripe.

[onewhippedpuppy]

Originally posted by fastpat
Number one, that wasn't opinion, it was an article based on actual fact.

Number two, it wasn't my opinion, but if I were to write an article that extensive, please be assured it would strive to be as lucid.

And last, do you want to argue facts, or prose styles, or something else?

Actually Pat, I don't recall seeing a single fact or statistic quoted in that article. The last time I heard, it was roughly 50,000 American engineers graduate for every 500,000 Japanese and Chinese engineers. Why they lump those two together I have no clue, I don't gather the data. The article is complete crap, it reads like something from a blog, all opinion and conspiracy theories.

I am an Aerospace Engineering student at Wichita State University, right here in the good old red state of KS. As a white guy, I can now say that I know what it is like to be a minority. Every department is dominated by people from other countries. And when I say from other countries, I mean from other countries, only here for school. I'm not even lumping immigrant families into this. The bulk of our teachers are foreign as well. Many of these students study in the US, then take their knowledge back home. We have a huge outflux of knowledge right now, so it's not surprising that the US is falling behind in innovation in many technical and industrial fields. Despite globalization, we are still in competition with other countries to stay on the leading edge of innovation, and we are losing. Knowledge is power, right?

What's wrong with encouraging students to take the hard road, and to fill a need as they do so? Most people I know went to school and got a business degree, now they're making $25k as an assistant manager at Target.

[Aurel]

Originally posted by onewhippedpuppy


What's wrong with encouraging students to take the hard road, and to fill a need as they do so? Most people I know went to school and got a business degree, now they're making $25k as an assistant manager at Target.

It not such a hard road if you look at the economics of it: a graduate student in science gets paid $20k/year for 4 years during his phD, then can either do a post-doc that is paid $35-55k/yr for 1-2 years depending where he lands, and then he can start a career at $65-70k/year.
That sound a whole lot better to me than getting stuck in a lower paying job for life, even if you started higher after 4 years of cruising in college.

Aurel

[slakjaw]

Originally posted by nostatic
That article is FOS.

Look at the demographics at the universities. Look at who are doing the research in this country. Look where they go when their training is done.

This country is fat, slow and stupid. And conspiracy-theorists nonsense suggesting that the call for more science and math education is a plot to populate govt weapons research is unimitigatetd tripe.

Your wrong!

This country is a juggernaut of creativity and creative talent that has not been matched by any other place on earth.

[fastpat]

Originally posted by onewhippedpuppy
Actually Pat, I don't recall seeing a single fact or statistic quoted in that article. The last time I heard, it was roughly 50,000 American engineers graduate for every 500,000 Japanese and Chinese engineers. Why they lump those two together I have no clue, I don't gather the data. The article is complete crap, it reads like something from a blog, all opinion and conspiracy theories.

I am an Aerospace Engineering student at Wichita State University, right here in the good old red state of KS. As a white guy, I can now say that I know what it is like to be a minority. Every department is dominated by people from other countries. And when I say from other countries, I mean from other countries, only here for school. I'm not even lumping immigrant families into this. The bulk of our teachers are foreign as well. Many of these students study in the US, then take their knowledge back home. We have a huge outflux of knowledge right now, so it's not surprising that the US is falling behind in innovation in many technical and industrial fields. Despite globalization, we are still in competition with other countries to stay on the leading edge of innovation, and we are losing. Knowledge is power, right?

You were looking for statistical analysis and didn't find any, that does not mean no facts were present.

That your taxpayer supported school allows foreign nationals to be educated there is a socialist program in progress and of course should be stopped immediately. Fat chance that will happen, it's the same everywhere and is rationalized with the myth if we let them come here to learn, they'll love us and want to be like us which has been phony from the moment it saw the light of day.

The government schools of the fifty states are for educating the citizens of the respective states and a few from other states and no one else.

What's wrong with encouraging students to take the hard road, and to fill a need as they do so? Most people I know went to school and got a business degree, now they're making $25k as an assistant manager at Target.

What's wrong with it that it's another socialist program whose sole objective is to enhance federal government power through funds transfers from those that have it to those that want it. Don't you know that there are already funds allocated to do this? And don't you know that much of those funds goes to the foreign nationals studying engineering at your school and hundreds of other state supported schools nationwide, and has been for years?

[widebody911]

This country was a juggernaut of creativity and creative talent that has not been matched by any other place on earth.

Intel, HP, Oracle, Microsoft, GE, etc have spent millions training India and China to replace us in this regard.
They decided the US would be better off with a 'service economy'.

[Aurel]

Originally posted by fastpat
[B]You were looking for statistical analysis and didn't find any, that does not mean no facts were present.

That your taxpayer supported school allows foreign nationals to be educated there is a socialist program in progress and of course should be stopped immediately.

Nope, it is the law of supply and demand. I would not ming hiring US student who where interested in science and willing to work hard. But unfortunately, they are extremely difficult to find.

The government schools of the fifty states are for educating the citizens of the respective states and a few from other states and no one else.

Evidently, you have not set foot on a campus in a very long time, and you have no idea of the demographics there.



What's wrong with it that it's another socialist program whose sole objective is to enhance federal government power through funds transfers from those that have it to those that want it. Don't you know that there are already funds allocated to do this? And don't you know that much of those funds goes to the foreign nationals studying engineering at your school and hundreds of other state supported schools nationwide, and has been for years?

The problem is not lack of funds, it is lack of US students in engineering and science. If they were present, the funds would go to them, and there would be less foreigners. Given the choice, I`d hire someone who speaks good english without having the trouble of getting him a visa, anytime.

[IROC]

This subject hits close to home for me. While I won't try to argue whether there is a shortage or not, one thing is for sure - this country does not place much value on engineers and scientists. Kids growing up these days are not steered towards careers in science - it's too hard and there's no glamour in it.

The only time that engineers or scientists are in the news is when something bad happens. The average person never stops to think that nearly every aspect of their daily lives is impacted (positively) by engineers and scientists. Everything.

NPR had an new story the other day that disputed the popular thought that outsourcing tech jobs is due to evil corporations looking for short-term profits. Evidently there is alot of data to suggest that there is a shortage of qualified personnel in this country. I've seen it myself.

Mike

[wludavid]

The article was an opinion piece. True, it's a fact that those were the writer's opinions, but it's still editorial.

The author does seem to get it when he says, "heck I know nothing of these subjects, so I can believe that there is a shortage!" But he misses the point. The very idea that it's okay to be afraid of numbers is rampant even among otherwise smart people. In college (a liberal arts school, fwiw) students were requred to take 5 PE classes, 4 semesters of foreighn language, and 2 semesters of literature, but only required to take Calc 1 and one semester of some lamed-up lab science. (Physics for non-majors aka Physics for *****ups was a favorite.)

The standards for math and science in this country are pathetically low. People who run the damn country - lawyers, MBAs, and some MDs don't even understand the difference between a scientific theory and hypothesis. Virtually no one you picked off the street randomly could explain what an integral is. Calculus is seen as High Math, when in fact it's not much more than glorified arithmetic.

It doesn't matter if there is a shortage or not. We should be raising the bar for education's sake, not because of some economic phantom.

[slakjaw]

Originally posted by widebody911
This country was a juggernaut of creativity and creative talent that has not been matched by any other place on earth.

Intel, HP, Oracle, Microsoft, GE, etc have spent millions training India and China to replace us in this regard.
They decided the US would be better off with a 'service economy'.

I disagree.

most new advancements will continue to come from this country.

You are also forgetting that we supply the world with Music, TV shows, Movies, Books, Storys....... The list goes on.