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Still Doin Time
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Nokesville, Va.
Posts: 8,225
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Question About The Rise in 10 Treasury Notes?
I've been watching this now for a few months. Just in the last three weeks the % has risen to almost 4 tenths of a point to todays rate of 4.81
Consequently first trusts have risen about 1/2 a % point higher as well. Does anybody know (reasonably) if the upward trend will continue for the next 60-90 days? I am in the market to buy and can see my purchasing power slipping away as the clock ticks.
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02-01-2007, 11:33 AM
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Registered
Join Date: May 2001
Location: Peoples Republic of Long Beach, NY
Posts: 21,140
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market is adjusting to Fed not lowering rates and the possibility he may eventually raise them.
buy a 6mo CD
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Ronin LB '77 911s 2.7 PMO E 8.5 SSI Monty MSD JPI w x6 |
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02-02-2007, 03:32 AM
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Still Doin Time
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Nokesville, Va.
Posts: 8,225
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I am looking to obtain a mortgage not a CD. Anyone else have inside knowledge as to which way the 10 year notes are headed in the next 60 days?
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'15 Dodge - 'Dango R/T Hauls groceries and Kinda Hauls *ss '07 Jeep SRT-8 - Hauls groceries and Hauls *ss Sold '85 Guards Red Targa - Almost finished after 17 years '95 Road King w/117ci - No time to ride, see above '77 Sportster Pro-Street Drag Bike w/93ci - Sold |
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02-02-2007, 04:46 AM
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Unconstitutional Patriot
Join Date: Apr 2000
Location: volunteer state
Posts: 5,620
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Your guess is as good as anyone else's. Bonds rallied today due to lower than expected jobs number. The market is on the edge with each day's news causing swings in either direction.
Based on current news, the chance of a rate cut and lower bond yields is very slim. My guess is lukewarm economic numbers will keep the 10 yr at 4.75% and strong economic numbers push the 10 yr to 5.0%. I'm not willing to put money on that bet, so my guess is worth a bucket full of broken chain tensioners(ummm, worthless). 
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02-02-2007, 04:57 AM
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If anyone can read the tea leaves that well they are likely retired and living a lavish life somewhere tropical.
The trend for mortgages and other long term rates is going to be up, but it isn't necessarily going to be straight up, the current inverted yield curve will work it's way out of the system. When? who knows? If I were shopping mortgages I would lock in now.
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Bill Verburg '76 Carrera 3.6RS(nee C3/hotrod), '95 993RS/CS(clone) | Pelican Home |Rennlist Wheels |Rennlist Brakes | |
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02-02-2007, 04:59 AM
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Unconstitutional Patriot
Join Date: Apr 2000
Location: volunteer state
Posts: 5,620
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From http://interestrateroundup.blogspot.com/
 If you're a technical analysis geek, 10 yr will not get below 4.6-4.7% without breaking the trendline, so you could lock the rate if the 10 yr falls a bit. That's if you're a numbers kinda guy. |
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02-02-2007, 05:28 AM
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Still Doin Time
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Nokesville, Va.
Posts: 8,225
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Now THAT'S what I'm looking for. Solid numbers/history to point to giving at least a reasonable trend / assumption about the next 60 days
Thanks all!!
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'15 Dodge - 'Dango R/T Hauls groceries and Kinda Hauls *ss '07 Jeep SRT-8 - Hauls groceries and Hauls *ss Sold '85 Guards Red Targa - Almost finished after 17 years '95 Road King w/117ci - No time to ride, see above '77 Sportster Pro-Street Drag Bike w/93ci - Sold |
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02-02-2007, 05:52 AM
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Snark and Soda
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: SF east bay
Posts: 24,640
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Locking in for 60-90 days adds to the cost of the loan, but if the market trends up, is fine. Plus, if the pricing is better when you're ready to buy, just switch to another lender, as your lock usually prevents the better pricing from the same lender. I don't read this site, but I believe there's good analysis at www.bondtalk.com
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02-02-2007, 06:36 AM
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Unconstitutional Patriot
Join Date: Apr 2000
Location: volunteer state
Posts: 5,620
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10 yr treasuries down to 4.59% as the markets navigate a series of speed bumps.
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02-27-2007, 05:04 AM
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1976 Porsche Carrera 3.0
1995 Porsche 993 Carrera Coupe
