TSO, VLO stocks still going up

[sammyg2]

I've been blabbing about these two companies for at least 5 years on this board, and they just keep going up. Close to or better than 100% per year over the last 5 years. It's not easy to get your life savings to double 5 times in 5 years.

Valero is sitting at $60.76, up from around $48 at the first of the year
Tesoro is at an all time high of $95.33, up from about $65 at the first of the year.

I'm guessing that Valero will hit $70 by late June or July, then I'll sell it around the end of August and buy back in in December after it drops significantly, just like I did last year. The seasonal cycles have been very easy to predict with this stock so far and have added a great deal to the profitability of trading this stock. (knock on wood).

Tesoro is probably about topped out but I said that at 80 also.
It might make it to 100 this summer, I'll probably sell it around the end of June. It it goes over 100 and splits two for one, it would probably climb some more after.

[sammyg2]

VLO is almost $64 now, up 4% in 2 weeks.
TSO is $100.8, up 6% in 2 weeks.
Both have roon to grow.

[sammyg2]

VLO up to $67.30, TSO skyrocketting to $108.26

Ordinarily I would be happy about that, but I had a sell order placed at 104.
Took the money and ran.

[Chocaholic]

...and your point is?...

[sammyg2]

Well, instead of posting about anna nicole's kid or global warming or what some idiot radio guy said or what some special interest minority figurehead is grabbing for, I posted some real investment information.
Please excuse me for that. I'll try to stick to useless drivel from now on

[slodave]

Bummer, Wish I had seen your earlier posts. Could've used the quick cash. Looks like you are doing well!

Dave

[MRM]

How did you identify these two stocks?

[TerryBPP]

My 2 promising stocks are ISIS & BRCD. Isis is a antisense drug company with a nice cholestrol drug in phase 3 research. Should sky rocket when/if its approved.

Brocade (BRCD) is a tech stock (yeah, I know) that is making some serious gains through some recent expansion.

Seems like everything is down today though.

[KFC911]

Originally posted by sammyg2
....Please excuse me for that. I'll try to stick to useless drivel from now on

That's what we've come to expect from you...just kidding ! Seriously, I've been one of those who has ranted about "price gouging", etc. with you, but I also own(ed) some Valero. However, instead of VLO, I've had a position in Valero Limited Partners (VLI), which just changed it's name and symbol to NuStar Energy LP (NS) a few days ago. It's done very well for me, but I'm wandering whether to let it ride, or move my position over to VLO. To be honest, I'm not sure I knew the nuances between owning VLO and VLI, when I purchased some time back, and I am just reevaluating my position after the name change. Thanks!

[widebody911]

I bought small amounts of TSO and VLO some time ago, and had a limit order to sell @ $100, but it expired and I never renewed it...

[sammyg2]

MRM, I've been working in the refining business for nearly three decades and that's how I came to know these stocks. no insider trading, all publicly available info. I used to work for Ultramar (which became Valero) and now I work for a refinery that Tesoro has purchased.
Three of the Vice Presidents of Tesoro are old friends of mine from the Ultramar days.

KC, good call on NuStar. It's run by Bill Greehey, the guy who built Valero from almost nothing. Very sharp cookie, I've had BBQ with him and just sat there with my trap shut and listened. He has a brand of BBQ sauce that he's very proud of, a bit too sweet and not hot enough for my taste but I didn't say so.
I figured when he stepped down from VLO and took over NuStar he was up to something, they took it in the shorts a little this quarter because the McKee refinery was shut down, but next quarter looks to be much better. To tell you the truth i have more faith in greehey than the current VLO management. They are good but Greehey is almost magic. I would not bet against him ever.

I'm still deep into VLO ($71.25 in afterhours trading) but the real shocker is Tesoro. Darn thing just keeps climbing, over $119. I sold at $104, shoulda-coulda-woulda.
I'm sticking with VLO until at least August. It has the potential to hit $100 and split (again) or it could fall to $60. Better upside than down.

[widebody911]

I sold my TSO at the opening bell @ 121 and change.

[sammyg2]

Looks like I got out way too early. I chickened out and sold VLO at $72.80, it's at $77.76 now.

TSO is up to $63.70 (after the two for one split, or $127.40 pre split)

How high can these go? I've heard speculation that VLO will hit $100 and TSO will go to $75, but that's gotta be wishful thinking, right?

I'm still betting they will both fall at least 20% by October, and I'll get back in around December and ride them up another 40% or so next spring.

[widebody911]

Yeah, I sold about 3 weeks ago - shoulda held on a little longer...

[MRM]

I didn't mean to imply insider info, Sammy, was just wondering if I could glean a stock picking tip or two from you. The sector's on fire right now (so to speak) so if you have any more ideas, let us in on them. My only idea is the upcoming VISA IPO. No insider information, I do some work in the field and they seem like a money machine to me.

[sammyg2]

Unfortunately, I only go with what I know and the energy sector is what I've spent the most time studying. It is and almost always has been seasonal which is a plus, buy in winter, sell in summer is almost guaranteed to make good $$$$.
For while I traded back and forth between refiners and airlines, when jet fuel was down the airlines made money, when it was up the refiners made money, but nowadays the airlines are so screwed up they scared me away.

In fact all my money is tied up in three mutual funds right now, if that's any indication. I'm always looking but rarely do I find one that is obviously a winner like VLO and TSO.

[sammyg2]

I sold off both of these stocks about a month ago or so, before they hit all time highs. I figured I got out at the wrong time and then bam! They started dropping like rocks.
TSO is down to $48.60 from $60, VLO is at $68.47 off from $78 a few weeks ago.
Yesterday Valero posted an all time record quarterly profit of $2.25 billion, 19% higher than same quarter last year and well above analysts estimates. AND IT STILL FELL HARD! I don't understand that at all. Gasoline inventories are high right now and will end up lowering the price of gas, but the amount these stocks are dropping is irrational.
I was going to wait until December to get back in but I'm seriously considering getting back in now. I think they are over-sold, all it would take is one big hurricane in the gulf coast to send these stocks up big time.
My gut says don't, my head says do it, I'm going to have to think about this one for a while.

[sammyg2]

Well, I chickened out and didn't get back in on these stocks and it's a darned good thing.
They are both still dropping, VLO is down to 60.50 (I got out at 72.80) and TSO is down to 43.70 from a high of almost 65 (i sold at 52).
I don't think they are going down much more, Im getting back in at the bottom which should be sometime this winter but it may turn back up as early as october. With any luck I might turn a 50% profit on them over the next 18 months. Then again, I could loose everything

[jyl]

Market selling for liquidity and de-leverage more than for fundamentals. Plenty of stocks w/ strong fundtls being sold down hard. Possibly explains the TSO VLO.

[Aurel]

This forum is great: it teaches you how to maintain your Porsche, and it also gives you tips on how to get the money for it

Aurel