Is the iPhone Launch doomed? I think it might be so...

[techweenie]

The 'cool factor' will sell the first 3 million. By then, 3G or whatever new technologies will be available in a rev. 2 version. Apple is famous for working on the replacement for each product long before the first rev. is even finalized.

[island911]

Originally posted by Halm
The iPhone will be a ground breaking device in many ways, especially the keyboard/interface. ...

How is the touchpad different than the HTC touch? --I haven't been able to find any differences in technology. (?)

[nostatic]

Originally posted by island911
How is the touchpad different than the HTC touch? --I haven't been able to find any differences in technology. (?)

its running a different os. implementation, not technology is the key.

[MichiganMat]

That, and HTC will probably be sued into the next millenium for patent infringment if they get too close to the iPhone functionality

[techweenie]

Originally posted by nostatic
its running a different os. implementation, not technology is the key.

Oh yeah, technology. Zune has just destroyed the iPod, as predicted.

[Halm]

Originally posted by nostatic
... but remember, this isn't a "corporate" phone. Most non-geeks are texting, not emailing. Email is for old farts.

Forgetting all the drivel in your earlier statements, it must be a blinding flash of the obvious that the iPhone is not a corporate device.

But you also miss the point that it is the corporate world that is buying most of these new phones. And they are doing it for email to keep their employees tethered to the business. Why do you think RIM was so successful with the Blackberry? The fact that a Blackjack, Treo, or whatever Pocket PC / Smartphone you want to mention plays music or DVD’s is just gravy to pull multimedia enthusiasts in as buyers. And with the pricing structure of the iPhone it will be the well off enthusiast that buys the iPhone, not the millions of junior high kids. Plus a lot of those kids already have iPods. Heck, we don’t even know if as a phone it is Blackberry quality or very good. Other than the “chic” factor –which the iPhone clearly has- why would anyone other than an Apple aficionado run out to buy one?

[techweenie]

Originally posted by Halm
SNIP Other than the �chic� factor �which the iPhone clearly has- why would anyone other than an Apple aficionado run out to buy one?

Are you putting your money where your mouth is and buying Apple put options? Timing is good with the Google buyout rumor rolling around...

And for those of you who can't tell the difference in UI implementation, you'll be satisfied with the inevitable knock-offs. Here's one, already:

http://www.engadget.com/2007/06/20/keepin-it-real-fake-part-lx-iphone-clone-on-video/

[KFC911]

Originally posted by Halm
....why would anyone other than an Apple aficionado run out to buy one?

Marketing? I'm not an Apple user, but am a music afficianado and I simply couldn't understand why anyone would want an Ipod (or any MP3 player) a few years ago. That didn't stop me from purchasing Apple stock however once I saw what a cash cow it was. I didn't hold a position in Apple the day the Iphone was announced, and I immediately jumped back in. I don't really know squat about devices like these, and Hal is absolutely spot on about the corporate environment, but I also think the Iphone is going to be HUGE regardless of the technology limitations (that can be corrected over time). In this case, I'm betting that "cool" beats technology hands down (and I'm a computer geek)!

[nostatic]

drivel?

Well, I'm sure you know more about the industry, and more importantly, the content side of things that will drive these devices than I do. Best of luck with designing your next killer app/device/whatever.

Zune. Yeah...go MS! They rock!

[Halm]

Tech, the question as I read it, is the upcoming iPhone going to be a success? To phrase my answer differently, I think it will be a moderate sales unit success because of lack of 3G and corporate oriented API's. I also think it will get rave reviews and possibly break some new technology ground. Maybe they have found a way to over come, for example, the issue of no tactic feedback from a touch screen when typing????

Is it going to make me go buy stock in Apple? Nope.

[island911]

Originally posted by MichiganMat
That, and HTC will probably be sued into the next millenium for patent infringment if they get too close to the iPhone functionality

Seriously, I don't see it. I keep hearing that Apple has so super IP, but I can't find it (haven't seen it). Multi-touch? . .is that "new" (patentable) because that 20+y/o idea hasn't been put into a phone until recent? Seriously, I don't get it. I can understand what Dr no is saying "it's the implementation" that people like. But that's GUI, not hardware.

[MichiganMat]

Pelicans: No one gives a crap about EDGE or 3G or any of that stuff, no one understands it, its still voodoo. The average consumer does however understand WiFi, its in every coffee shop, library, and business from coast to coast. Those of us on the left coast are privileged to have it almost everywhere for free. I think you're going to see these closed technologies fail in favor of open standards and networks, the iPhone will only serve to lead the way, something Apple is very very good at doing.

[KFC911]

Originally posted by Halm
Is it going to make me go buy stock in Apple? Nope.

I wouldn't either....now

ps: But I'm not selling either...I think Apple is gonna hit a grand slam (again).

[KFC911]

Originally posted by MichiganMat
.... I think you're going to see these closed technologies fail in favor of open standards and networks, the iPhone will only serve to lead the way, something Apple is very very good at doing.

I agree...

[Halm]

Mat, think of EDGE as the old days where you used a modem and dialed up to the Internet. 3G is like DSL / cable.

WiFi will certainly help overcome most of the multimedia issues I voiced earlier. However, it is yet to be seen if the phone will make it to market with WiFi. AT&T/Cingular has a history of crippling that feature on phones that would otherwise have it.

[MichiganMat]

I would be suprised if Steve Jobs would let AT&T grab him by the balls. If he's not going to let the RIAA and the record companies lead him around by the nose, I doubt he'll let the telco's do it.

[nostatic]

Originally posted by Halm
AT&T/Cingular has a history of crippling that feature on phones that would otherwise have it.

and Apple has a history of getting other industries to change the way they do things (think music and movies/tv).

[Halm]

Originally posted by MichiganMat
I would be suprised if Steve Jobs would let AT&T grab him by the balls. If he's not going to let the RIAA and the record companies lead him around by the nose, I doubt he'll let the telco's do it.

More power to him. I'd love it!

With regard to WiFi, keep in mind a couple of things. First the coffee shop is paying for that "free" bandwidth Mat mentioned. Second, studies have shown that where a user has both WiFi and 3G on their phone, they seldom use the WiFi. Third, cellular revenues are rapidly moving towards dependence on data plans. And fourth, as much sense as off loading to free WiFi makes for the cellular carriers, they view it as competition and will fight to keep WiFi off their devices. That is why I buy international phones from places like Expansys and Mad Monkey Boy so I can have both data paths.

[Racerbvd]

I was thinking about getting one, as the old i870 is wearing, but I don't want to be the 1st on the block to make a 6 bill boo-boo, but then I saw it doesn't have a camera, and with my work, I really use that feature, and for fun too. Just think Joe, I would have so many less pix to post without my phone

[island911]

Originally posted by nostatic
.... Most non-geeks are texting, not emailing. Email is for old farts.

hmmm, I thought Most non-geeks are simply talking (not texting) with the phone.

No doubt the iphone will have all sorts of geek methods available.