Tabs, what's the smart money doing?

[Bill Douglas]

Where is the smart money going if it's being pulled out of the stock market and real estate. I know you like collectables; is it time for the swing to collectables and art to happen?

Or is the smart money really battoning down the hatches and buying gold fearing a recession in the US?

[the]

Blue horseshoe loves MOT.

[motion]

If everyone is pulling out of RE, then its time to start putting into RE. If that doesn't work for you, there's always hookers and blow

[Hugh R]

Great question, I was just going to post something along this line. I'm down about 10% from the high of late last year, but still up about 5% from where I was on 1/07. I was watching two fund managers on MSNBC this afternoon, and one was a bear guy and one a bull guy. The bear guy basically said the market is given the investor a "gift" right now that they should heed, its slowly headed down and its a warning before it drops 3-4,000 points (Yikes!). The bull guy said buy gold, neither of those are very good endorsements.

I do my own through Schwab. I've seen the weekly and monthly swings in the markets get greater and greater in the last year. It used to be up 10 pts. down 19, up 12, down 5. Now its up 300, down 200, down 200 up 175. Much greater volatility. Any professional money managers/stockbrokers out there with any thoughts, rationale? BTW my retirement time horizon is about 11 years. Some analysts are predicting a 25-40% further drop in housing, could that be possible? My house value in today's market is about 2.5x what I bought it for, so I'm not too worried about that.

[MT930]

Originally Posted by motion

If everyone is pulling out of RE, then its time to start putting into RE. If that doesn't work for you, there's always hookers and blow

Diversification is the key between both R/E and stock mt.
keep the egg's in a few baskets

Motion:
If there is a return on hookers and blow, I'm in.

[tabs]

Collectables remain strong. Next year Mother says the Bull returns in the SM.

[Porsche-O-Phile]

RE is still way overpriced and will likely be toxic for at least the next two years. Maybe more in some markets, maybe less in others. YMMV.

There is still a helluva lot of money to be made in the stock market. Put options are just as good as call options. As long as the market is moving and not flat, there's lots of money to be made. The direction (up or down) doesn't really matter.

[dewolf]

Originally Posted by MT930

Diversification is the key between both R/E and stock mt.
keep the egg's in a few baskets

Motion:
If there is a return on hookers and blow, I'm in.

there's always money to be made from hookers. Need a brothel. Actually an offshore oil rig converted to a high roller casino with free hookers and booze.

[pavulon]

Originally Posted by Wayne at Pelican Parts

International...

-Wayne

Scouts or Travelalls?

[DanielDudley]

I'm going with Wayne and Mother on this one.

[turbo6bar]

Originally Posted by motion

If everyone is pulling out of RE, then its time to start putting into RE.

Don't buy until you see the whites of their eyes. I'll teach you eventually, old grasshopper.

I do agree with you in general. Zigging while others zag has been good for me, indeed.

[tabs]

Your going International...with the $$ being so low in value..your late to that party. The $$ at some point is going to rebound...and you will be caught with your international..

RE is dead, dead dead...and will be for some years to come. Bonds, interest rates are going lower...so any margin you have their is small.

Commodities...yeah I suppose there is still some room there.

Collectables...remain strong, how much higher they will go is a good question??? If you look for bargains they can be found..I see a plateau for collectables...

Oriental rugs seemed soft last year...this year they have popped up in price, either that or I'm picking better stuff. at least to bid on.

[fintstone]

I will be contrarian and stick with stocks and real estate.

[BeyGon]

Collectables, I think there will be some good deals on nice watches this year, little things some people overspent on.

Wine.

[Mo_Gearhead]

Money to be made overseas, ignore it at your own loss. Several international markets have done/will do well.

USA stock market will react (good/bad?) depending on whom is elected in Nov.

Prepare to move some money into cash. Why? Depending on where you live,
within 12 to 24 months you will WANT to begin purchasing up those heavily discounted real estate ...BARGAINS. Location. Location. Location!!!!

[John_AZ]

The swing to international may be over. Credit Suisse says buy U.S.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/credit-suisse-first-time-decade/story.aspx?guid=%7BEDBD27E6%2DD5D5%2D4357%2D9795%2 D85C4C3E18A9F%7D.

I am having a real problem with all of the paid market sector predictors. There seems to be more of the "pump up and dump" strategy.

John_AZ

[jyl]

Personally, I am slowly nibbling on good growth companies that are selling at bargain valuations, offsetting w/ index shorts. My goal is to not lose much money in down market and have a portfolio of undervalued stocks when the market turns up. Favoring early cyclical sectors and some tech. Avoiding financials simply because I don't understand them, so can't distinguish the good buys. "Bargain" to me means at a multiple similar to early 1990 levels, liking <10X PE names. Am thinking - or rather hoping, not have a strong argument - that market bottoms in 2H08 ahead of economy bottoming in 1H09. I am avoiding high-priced stocks with momentum, the shorts are going after them and I expect 8 out of 10 to blow up before bear market is over, tough to pick the right 2.

Disclaimer: Your mileage may vary, no guarantee mine won't suck, and I don't care if it takes me 2 years to see a profit.

I don't expect real estate to bottom for another 2+ years, and don't expect it to go up much for another couple years after that. Except in San Juan Capistrano of course.

Am wary of international markets because Europe and Japan economies are rolling over. Haven't figured out Chinese stock valuations - been looking at some trading at 60X revenues! Do you expect emerging economies to decouple from G7 economies, I'm skeptical of that.

[motion]

Originally Posted by John_AZ

I am having a real problem with all of the market sector predictors. There seems to be more of the "pump up and dump" strategy.

John_AZ

Welcome to the Internet and the short attention spans that come with it.

[M.D. Holloway]

Bubblegum...invest in Bubblegum

[turbo6bar]

John, I like you're activity. Buying undervalued growth is a great plan.

My personality tends towards the value side. Are you bearish or neutral on value?