Tabs, what's the smart money doing?

[jyl]

Jurgen,

I don't have much opinion on value vs growth. I leaned toward value when I was focused on large cap stocks, of course that was when value was having a multi-year run of outperformance. Now growth seems to be outperforming, if you can call it that, and I'm focused on small cap stocks where valuation support seems less firm, to say the least. Anyway, the declines are taking most stocks down hard, so if I can buy a growth company at a near-value multiple, why not.

This market is acting awful. I don't recall if I posted about the historical declines in the indicies into recessions, but anyway I think there is a considerable ways down to go. Which is what you've been looking for all along.

[the]

Dow will get well into 4 digits.

[Porsche-O-Phile]

Originally Posted by the

Dow will get well into 4 digits.

Short the index.

[SLO-BOB]

Originally Posted by fintstone

I will be contrarian and stick with stocks and real estate.

I'm with you.

There are some areas that aren't as hard hit by the RE fallout. Right now we're on the hunt for investment properties in the midwest. Interest rates vs low prices make it a bargain. Not that interest rates are even a big player for someone who is going to flip the property in 8-12 weeks. I have one on the hook now. I'll clear 60k in 8-12 with only a 50k investment. Yeah - there's sweat involved. The real kind, not the worrying kind.

What is they say about stocks - for every winner there's a loser? Right now money can be made, but it's not fish in a barrel like before. Gotta be smarter than the next guy.

If by collectables you mean the Ferrari 330 Berlinetta that you've been hanging onto for 10 years, yeah, I suppose you will get rich off of that. If you mean stuff on Ebay, only Paypal will get rich off of that.

[turbo6bar]

Originally Posted by jyl

This market is acting awful. I don't recall if I posted about the historical declines in the indicies into recessions, but anyway I think there is a considerable ways down to go. Which is what you've been looking for all along.

Point made by one analyst was that (some) stocks are still fairly valued after the crush of the recession in 01. They are perhaps prepared for the upcoming consumer-led recession. On the other hand, if consumers slow spending, what happens to earnings?

I am at a crossroads. I may never reinvest my cash in the stock market outside of tax-deferred accounts. I may go long RE and try to make the transition into commercial RE. I see high single-digit to low double-digit returns + full control + favorable tax treatment and perfect information. Flip side--I'd nibble on BRK if the price dropped another 30%.

I haven't seen enough bearish sentiment yet, but it is rapidly changing.

[911teo]

Cash and Fixed income. Stay away from risky stuff. Stick to AA or Govt Bonds. In 2 weeks we wiped out last year... The next stop for the S&P is 1,200....

5y treasury is yielding 3% right now (ouch), 5y swap rates (proxy for 5y deposits) are at 3.60%

There are some interesting structured product avaliable out there in FI.... I would not touch the stock mkt right now.

[legion]

Silver spoons chasing....spoons.

[the]

Originally Posted by turbo6bar

I am at a crossroads. I may never reinvest my cash in the stock market outside of tax-deferred accounts. I may go long RE and try to make the transition into commercial RE. I see high single-digit to low double-digit returns + full control + favorable tax treatment and perfect information. Flip side--I'd nibble on BRK if the price dropped another 30%.

I haven't seen enough bearish sentiment yet, but it is rapidly changing.

I'm with you on all of that. (Although I think it's still early to go long RE).

In what cities are you seeing "high single-digit to low double-digit returns + full control + favorable tax treatment and perfect information?" What kind of commercial are you thinking about?

[jyl]

I'd like to see SPX <1240, -20% from highs - wipe out 2006 as well as 2007.

Well, I wouldn't "like" it, but you know what I mean.

SPX has fallen at least -15% into every recession since WW2, except one.

Don't have an analytical argument why it falls that far (vs not as far, or vs farther), just looking at history.

Originally Posted by turbo6bar

Point made by one analyst was that (some) stocks are still fairly valued after the crush of the recession in 01. They are perhaps prepared for the upcoming consumer-led recession. On the other hand, if consumers slow spending, what happens to earnings?

I am at a crossroads. I may never reinvest my cash in the stock market outside of tax-deferred accounts. I may go long RE and try to make the transition into commercial RE. I see high single-digit to low double-digit returns + full control + favorable tax treatment and perfect information. Flip side--I'd nibble on BRK if the price dropped another 30%.

I haven't seen enough bearish sentiment yet, but it is rapidly changing.

[turbo6bar]

Originally Posted by the

I'm with you on all of that. (Although I think it's still early to go long RE).

In what cities are you seeing "high single-digit to low double-digit returns + full control + favorable tax treatment and perfect information?" What kind of commercial are you thinking about?

I also believe it is too early to go long RE. The primary reason is the collapsing lending market. I don't want to blow the cash now, knowing that future deals will be compromised due to tight lending conditions. 20-30% down on several commercial deals would sap my bank account quickly.

I am mainly hunting around the Memphis, TN area. A recent listing (multi-tenant office space) is listed at 9.0 and 9.78 CAP rate. My interest wouldn't grow until that reached 11, implying a 15-20% drop in price.

I keep hearing about the impending downturn in CRE, but I don't know how it will affect pricing for the properties I want to buy.

[turbo6bar]

Originally Posted by jyl

I'd like to see SPX <1240, -20% from highs - wipe out 2006 as well as 2007.

Well, I wouldn't "like" it, but you know what I mean.

SPX has fallen at least -15% into every recession since WW2, except one.

Don't have an analytical argument why it falls that far (vs not as far, or vs farther), just looking at history.

-20% SPX would put prices at the point at which I sold everything, Aug/Sept 05. Stating I was too early is a staggering understatement.

I do like chasing quality names, though. If the company is quality, it's worth holding for the long-term. Therefore, timing the bottom isn't critical.

[the]

Originally Posted by turbo6bar

-20% SPX would put prices at the point at which I sold everything, Aug/Sept 05. Stating I was too early is a staggering understatement.

LOL, again, I'm with you. I was a little later, but not much.

[WI wide body]

Originally Posted by fintstone

I will be contrarian and stick with stocks and real estate.

Hmm...you had previously indicated that you were in, and had been in for quite some time, an index fund. Don't you recall your words "any dummy can do it."

When did that all change?

[the]

Isn't an index fund usually nothing more than a bunch of stocks?

[jyl]

At this rate, we'll be there in no time. Arrgh.

Originally Posted by turbo6bar

-20% SPX would put prices at the point at which I sold everything, Aug/Sept 05. Stating I was too early is a staggering understatement.

I do like chasing quality names, though. If the company is quality, it's worth holding for the long-term. Therefore, timing the bottom isn't critical.

[turbo6bar]

We should stop bad-mouthing the economy. Such gloom and doom is sure to propel the Dow below 10k and the S&P to terrible depths.

[fintstone]

Originally Posted by WI wide body

Hmm...you had previously indicated that you were in, and had been in for quite some time, an index fund. Don't you recall your words "any dummy can do it."

When did that all change?

You prove me wrong. Obviously, you are clearly a dummy that could not do it. A stock index fund is; surprisingly enough...composed of stocks.

[RWebb]

Originally Posted by turbo6bar

We should stop bad-mouthing the economy. Such gloom and doom is sure to propel the Dow below 10k and the S&P to terrible depths.

No no - keep it up. I may have some cash to buy stocks with soon & I'd like to have some real bargains out there.

[Joeaksa]

Originally Posted by Wayne at Pelican Parts

International...

-Wayne

Been doing VERY well with this....

[tabs]

I no longer have a clue about anything and am at the mercy of whichever way the winds are blowing.