Can you still "Move In" to So CAL??

[silverc4s]

This aimed at Wayne and the group that was having the Southern California housing discussion in "Wayne's formula for when to buy real estate again... "

I lived in San Jose in the 80's and 90's, moving back to Texas in 1996. Came out well on my house there, but of course now could never afford to go back there and repurchase my house. The stats were like 3 br, 2.5 ba, 2 car garage, 2600 sf. Purchased in 1985 for 213K, sold in 1996 for 650K. That house was as high as $1M before the loan debacle started to unfold, no idea what it wold be worth now..

So, here is the question that was put to me earlier this week, prompting me to ask the "experts" (expert = you are in SOCAL & you have or want to have a house there today).

You are a 40 year old, very successful sales exec with a leading sporting goods company. They have a lot of their base in San Diego, but you currently live & work in Austin, TX. You are offered a VP Stripe, a corner office, and a great set of challenging accounts. The catch: you have to move to San Diego to do this job. You have a wife and two small boys, just starting school. You currently live in a Country Club Community, HOA, lots of rules, very nice desireable neighborhood, etc. Your house, 3100sf, 4-3.5-3 on a corner lot with a nice pool and spa will likely sell for around $500 to $600K. You will get a raise, but even so, can you afford to move? Also if you buy in San Diego now, are you buying in a falling market where your house will be worth less every quarter for years to come? What the he!! should you do??

[Porsche-O-Phile]

If you're a millionaire, sure.

But honestly, why would you want to?

[LakeCleElum]

Do whatever it takes to get out of that "Country Club, HOA, lots of rules" neighborhood...

I'd say go for SD, I love the weather there. The market is low now - You'll be ahead if you can stay 5 yrs or longer...

[silverc4s]

Originally Posted by Porsche-O-Phile

If you're a millionaire, sure.

But honestly, why would you want to?

As usual, I was not specific enough in my question. This is NOT about my personal situation, I was just using that example to "set the stage". This is a friend/neighbor that is wrestling with a sudden carreer opportunity that has been put in front of him. He's asking me for advice from a been there done that perspective..

I am never moving back, too old to dive back into that rat race...

[Scuba Steve]

I'd get out of the place with all the rules... last neighborhood I lived in with those was too picky about small things that don't matter. Seriously, getting on people because their small trash can was stored *next to* their house behind a bush rather than in the garage...

I've wondered about that sort of thing too though. I moved from San Antonio and had a normal house for the area in a gated neighborhood that sold for $135,000 last year. Moved to Seattle and am pretty much priced out, so what to do? Stick around and try to get by on my income while the other half finishes school (2 1/2 years left)? Move back to SA if a good opportunity comes along (she would still get in-state tuition there), work hard and continue to save while she finishes school and then think about moving again? Maybe the housing market in the NW would be softer by then. Either way, what I make here vs. there did not increase enough to cover the cost of living difference. I'm leaning towards the second option.

I really miss the nice 2 car garage I left behind and the yard my dog enjoyed running around in. It'd be a long time before I could afford that here.

[MRM]

From the way you phrase the question I suspect your friend will never feel right about it if he passed up the oportunity. Financially I see lots of inflation in the near future. The inflation rate for the past 12 months is just over 7%. Historically that's astronomical and in recent history it's mind bogling. Last time it was that high was 1982. And we're just starting. I think this is a good time to get into an affordable house and lock in on a 30 year fixed rate mortgage. The SC market might fall more, but I don't think it's in a free fall for nice houses in a nice neighborhood with good schools. I have no idea what houses like that are going for, so I can't say whether he'll be able to afford it.

In straight dollars for the short term he'll probably come up short considering the cost of living, even if he gets a salary bump. But longer term he has to consider promotional oportunities and access to stock options, bonuses, etc.

If he balances potential career success against the cost on his personal life to succeed in that environment, I think it's a fool's bargain, but I understand why people chase that particular dream.

[fingpilot]

One word. Get used to it, it will control your San Diego lifestyle and security forever the way things are going.


Tiajuana.

[Porsche-O-Phile]

Si.

[motion]

Funny thing is, tourism is down in Tijuana by 90%. Yes, thats NINETY PERCENT. They still love our dollars, so now they are coming over the border more now than ever to get 'em.

[JavaBrewer]

San Diego RE has/is taking a solid beating with South County (Chula Vista/Eastlake) leading the charge and North County (Rancho Bernardo/Poway/Escondido/San Marcos/Encinitas/Vista) trailing. Not surprisingly these are the communities that had a gigantic growth spurt in the late 90s' and early 2000. Lots of foreclosures and many more coming this year.

I think with a solid 20% down your neighbor could do very well - like picking up a home that previously sold for $850K for $600K. It all depends on how they like the area and the stability of the new gig. Renting in San Diego is still very expensive but I would still recommend it for the first 6 months so they can get a feel for the area and decide if SD is a long term candidate for residency. With the coming increase in foreclosures that $600K home could slide even more though it really depends on the neighborhood.

[scottmandue]

Originally Posted by LakeCleElum

Do whatever it takes to get out of that "Country Club, HOA, lots of rules" neighborhood...

I'd say go for SD, I love the weather there. The market is low now - You'll be ahead if you can stay 5 yrs or longer...

What he said!

Yeah... sure there may be a real estate bust coming some day... but SD is going to be the best place to be in So. Cal. when it happens IMHO...

Mexicans? Yeah we got Mexicans! They have Mexicans in Chicago for heavens sake... better get used to it!

[the]

Originally Posted by scottmandue

Yeah... sure there may be a real estate bust coming some day... but SD is going to be the best place to be in So. Cal. when it happens IMHO...

May be a real estate bust . . . some day?????

You don't get out much, do ya!

[sammyg2]

San Diego has some of the best, mildest weather in the country.
Most people who live in San Diego absolutely love it.
I'll be down there in La Jolla on Friday. It should be warm enough for the girls near the beach to start shedding layers, I'm looking forward to the scenery.

[silverc4s]

Thanks for all the thoughtful replies, guys. Keep em coming. What is the $/sq ft in upscale San Diego areas right now??

[Tobra]

Originally Posted by motion

Funny thing is, tourism is down in Tijuana by 90%. Yes, thats NINETY PERCENT. They still love our dollars, so now they are coming over the border more now than ever to get 'em.

that is because of all the kidnappings and murders across the border

SD is a beautiful place to live, very expensive, but very nice. Think of all the money you will save on not having to run your furnace or AC.

[Sapporo Guy]

Lolo, move into South of Chula Vista and get flooded out every once in a while.

Mom said to wait a bit more before SD starts to get a real beating... After the dust settles, lots of nice stuff will be up for grabs.

yeah, I wish I could move into La Jolla too

[lowyder993s]

Days like today make it all worthwhile. 40 mile vis, 68 degrees air, 58 in the water, 4' waves and the crowds aren't too bad. I'm a local (47 years)...seen lotsa changes...but I ALWAYS think to myself, how could anyone live anywhere else. Couple weeks back, foreclosure auction had 2br/2ba condos in Eastlake for 125k. That area is in freefall right now. Will be for awhile. Been a few abductions there recently, but the apple dumpling gang keeps getting the wrong person. Tijuana is whack right now!!! WAY WORSE then scarface. They found a house w/ a full shooting range below w/ trash cans FULL of used brass!!! Nobody heard nuthin'
Narco-corridos (singers who extoll the virtues of certain drug cartels) getting whacked all over the place. Northern SD county seems a little more insulated...not that it doesn't have its problems.