Are things really that bad?

[onewhippedpuppy]

Every day, it's doom and gloom. The media, the Democrats, the Supe and Shawn in PPOT. Every day it's how bad things are, how they're getting worse, how America is going to crap. Which of course plays well into politics, but lets avoid that topic. Obviously prices of many things are going up and some stupid people made bad choices and lost their homes. Then on the other hand, unemployment is low, America in general still has an incredible standard of living, and I don't see people starving or dying in the streets.

My question: in your life are things getting worse, better, or is it business as usual? Why? Be mature and answer the question, don't bring in childish political mud-slinging.

[lendaddy]

Yes, financially it's really bad. Seriously worse than I would have ever imagined. I can see the whites of the reapers eyes and I welcome his cold embrace.

I've told my story before, Michigan is no place to be right now....it's hard out here fo' a pimp.

[Hugh R]

About the same for me over the last five years. We're slow on making movies due to the looming SAG strike. We don't have any features starting until February/March. We're doing one in Morocco right now. Boss says don't worry, I do Television Production as well. Still, not going out to make any big purchases.

[cmccuist]

I'm an engineer living in the Houston area. In the last three years i've increased my salary by over $50k. I guess it depends on individual circumstances and location.

I'm livin' large right about now. However, I'm saving for a rainy day, because things have a way of cycling in my business.

[onewhippedpuppy]

For me, it's been a constant path of improvement. 4 years ago I decided that I wanted a better life for my family, so I went back to college. Now graduated, I've never made more money and never had a brighter future. I have a great wife and two wonderful, healthy kids. We have a nice house, two decent paid for cars, and no debt other than student loans and mortgage. While things are occasionally tight, we have no serious worries, and all the confidence in the world that things will only get better.

Summary: better.

[kstar]

And one of my favorite Reagan stories is applicable here:

Over lunch today I asked Ed Meese about one of Reagan's favorite jokes. "The pony joke?" Meese replied. "Sure I remember it. If I heard him tell it once, I heard him tell it a thousand times."

The joke concerns twin boys of five or six. Worried that the boys had developed extreme personalities -- one was a total pessimist, the other a total optimist -- their parents took them to a psychiatrist.

First the psychiatrist treated the pessimist. Trying to brighten his outlook, the psychiatrist took him to a room piled to the ceiling with brand-new toys. But instead of yelping with delight, the little boy burst into tears. "What's the matter?" the psychiatrist asked, baffled. "Don't you want to play with any of the toys?" "Yes," the little boy bawled, "but if I did I'd only break them."

Next the psychiatrist treated the optimist. Trying to dampen his out look, the psychiatrist took him to a room piled to the ceiling with horse manure. But instead of wrinkling his nose in disgust, the optimist emitted just the yelp of delight the psychiatrist had been hoping to hear from his brother, the pessimist. Then he clambered to the top of the pile, dropped to his knees, and began gleefully digging out scoop after scoop with his bare hands. "What do you think you're doing?" the psychiatrist asked, just as baffled by the optimist as he had been by the pessimist. "With all this manure," the little boy replied, beaming, "there must be a pony in here somewhere!"

"Reagan told the joke so often," Meese said, chuckling, "that it got to be kind of a joke with the rest of us. Whenever something would go wrong, somebody on the staff would be sure to say, "There must be a pony in here somewhere.'"

Source: http://www.phrases.org.uk/bulletin_board/28/messages/718.html

[Burnin' oil]

Originally Posted by lendaddy

Yes, financially it's really bad. Seriously worse than I would have ever imagined. I can see the whites of the reapers eyes and I welcome his cold embrace.

I've told my story before, Michigan is no place to be right now....it's hard out here fo' a pimp.

Daddy-O'

You would fit in well with the regular phone calls between my brother-in-law and I.
Numerous references to falling down, the dark abyss, sweet relief, the grim reaper, etc. Very uplifting.

In response to the question: Ebb and flow, ebb and flow. And, no matter how bad it gets, I never think the government can make it better, except by taking less.

[onewhippedpuppy]

]

I ordered a beer, and YOU BRING ME A WATER!!!!!

[MRM]

This is a serious question and it deserves a serious response. The quick answer is that we are in the trough of a business cycle. The economy is cyclical. Times are good, things turn sour, and times get hard. We've had it so good for most of the last 25 years that this downturn seems particularly bad. Since the early 1980s, we've had some downturns, most notably in 1991-1992 and 2001, but we haven't had many sustained downward slopes on the business cycle curve. Since we are used to sustained good times, any downturn makes it hard to tell the difference between the end of the world and what is simply the end of the good times.

That being said, there are other factors at work that spread pain disproportionately and hit some people and sectors worse than others. To the people being affected, this is not a mere downturn in the business cycle; it is a fundamental shift in the economy that is eliminating what they used to do and it is difficult for people in those positions to find replacement work.

As Len points out, there are entire sectors of the economy that are dead. That would include the state of Michigan and the American auto industry and all the businesses and industries that depend on the auto industry. All businesses are cutting to the bone, so the days of safe, well educated white collar professionals is gone. The companies are cutting staff, managers and executives. The numbers don't tell the whole story for a couple of reasons.

What is different now is 1) that many of the jobs that were lost were high paying professional and skilled blue collar positions; 2) those jobs are not coming back; and 3) the people who had those jobs are not going to get new ones just like the job they lost. The people who have lost jobs or have businesses like Len's that are in declining industries are not in a business cycle. They are like the miners in a boom town that ran out of gold. They are superfluous to American industry.

This is not an entirely new phenomonon. Since the 1990s companies have been cutting middle management, but what is new is that entire industries are downsizing and not coming back. They don't have plans to increase staff even when business picks up. GM, Ford, etc. all have plans to be fully staffed at something like half the size they were a year or two ago.

So, the current economy is putting strains on everyone who buys gas, borrows money or shops for groceries - the real costs of food and energy and consumer loans have gone up. For those people this is the end of the good times. But for a significant minority of people in the country who have lost theor jobs or businesses or are at risk to do so, the end really is here.

To a 50 year old white collar professional with a 25 year job history of increasing management responsibilities with the same company, who finds himself unemployed 24 months before his pension kicked in, there is no diference between today and the Great Depression. My wife's company just created a couple of thousand people just like that. To the rest of us, it's just higher prices and flat wages.

[cgarr]

I think it depends on what business you are in, We have never had more work at our Company and yes its in Michigan but we are not reactive, we saw this coming for some time now and adjusted, but then we are in snack foods too which is one of the big sellers, that and beer when times get hard I guess.

[lendaddy]

Originally Posted by kstarnes

Very nice, here's mine:

[nynor]

things have been better here. we bought a house five years ago, which promptly appreciated over 50%. i used some of that capital to go back to school 1.5 years ago and i am almost done. i will probably make twice what i made before going back to school in the first year than i made the year before going back to school.

[Scuba Steve]

Things are going pretty well. Within the last year and a half I've made a couple of great moves and have managed to go up in pay by a good 50% or so (that's partially thanks to going from underpaid to over the average). Jobs in the field I'm in seem to be available if you're willing to move to where they are located.

[lendaddy]

I'm not sure you guys know I'm just goofing around with the depression comments. Things really are bad here but I'm optimistic. We make our own beds and I don't blame anyone.

There is still plenty of opportunity out there(even in Michigan) make no mistake.

[cgarr]

Here is ours!

[The Gaijin]

Originally Posted by MRM

The quick answer is that we are in the trough of a business cycle. The economy is cyclical. Times are good, things turn sour, and times get hard. We've had it so good for most of the last 25 years that this downturn seems particularly bad. Since the early 1980s, we've had some downturns, most notably in 1991-1992 and 2001, but we haven't had many sustained downward slopes on the business cycle curve. Since we are used to sustained good times, any downturn makes it hard to tell the difference between the end of the world and what is simply the end of the good times.

This bares repeating. It is a big economy, a big country and very diverse.


My tawdry industry has been firing folks and done no hiring and little training for a dozen years. So finally, we are getting a little respect, some real wage growth and job security after many dismal years..

The question remains - how long is this downturn going to take to work it's self out??

And as more organized groups write more checks to more politicians (take teachers for instance..) to insulate themselves from any changes or taking their own fair lumps in this game - how is that going to affect the outcome??

The Japanese had their own credit crisis and real estate meltdown almost 20 years ago. But because powerful groups resisted change the economy took years and years and years to recover. And on a certain level has never come back..

[pwd72s]

Thing just peachy keen here...well, they will be once a kitchen remodel is over and I can return home from a road trip.

Lovin' retirement! Keep working guys...I'm really appreciating that monthly check from the government for getting old.

[lendaddy]

Originally Posted by cgarr

Here is ours!

Can I sponge up your excess please?

[Superman]

It's all Dubya's fault. (I couldn't resist)

I'm doing well. Frankly, my future depends partly on the election of Mr. Obama and the quick and decisive recission of Executive Order 13202, signed by Mr. Bush as one of his very first acts as "president." Mr. Bush has been (quite predictably) an enemy not just of organized labor, but of the working men and women of America. Not only do my fortunes ride on this election, but so do the fortunes of most working Americans. A great many workers' rights have been denied these past seven years.

[The Gaijin]

Originally Posted by pwd72s

Lovin' retirement! Keep working guys...I'm really appreciating that monthly check from the government for getting old.

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