AAPL surpasses RIM in handsets sold last Q

[kstar]

Absolutely amazing numbers from Apple today; they outsold RIM (Blackberry) by number of handsets and are now the #3 handset maker in the world by revenue behind Nokia and Samsung, based on last Q numbers.

And the iPhone has only been out for 15 months.

The rest of the earnings report is extraordinary, as well.

See: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/21/AR2008102102203.html

Now, about that stock price . . . It was trading up 11%+ after hours, but it has taken a severe beating recently.

FYI, FWIW.

Best,

[Porsche-O-Phile]

Their stock is still going in the toilet.

I'm still sore after a HUGE loss a few quarters ago when AAPL killed earnings in 4Q/2007 and still dropped due to guidance projections. Very painful - everything pointed to a spike/uptick in stock price on the report so I took a bunch of call contracts and got smoked on them. As such I'm avoiding AAPL like the plague.

[onewhippedpuppy]

The Storm and Bold are going to be a big boost to RIM, as Wayne said. Of course, Apple has the ace up their sleeve of releasing the iPhone to other carriers. I wonder how long that exclusive contract with AT&T lasts?

[slakjaw]

The Storm and Bold are going to fail.

People want a phone that runs on image and nothing more. There are already a lot of devices available that outperform the iphone yet the iphone continues to sell.

Apple has had recent job postings for CDMA and WIMAX engineers which means the iPhone might be going to another carrier.

[kstar]

Originally Posted by Wayne at Pelican Parts

RIMM has three new devices out or coming out in the next month or so. The Storm is billed as an iPhone killer, we'll have to see...

-Wayne

AFAIK, the Storm is delayed as is RIM's Application Store; the store is scheduled to open next year. After 102 days, 200M apps have been downloaded from Apple's store, granted a significant number of those are . . . not so good.

Also note, the figures I posted in the OP are just based on the last quarter, so they are fluid and Apple could drop in any of those categories.

OTOH, the current "holiday" quarter is when Apple typically sells 2 to 3 times the "non-holiday" numbers of "hot" things like iPods and iPhones.

[slakjaw]

Originally Posted by onewhippedpuppy

The Storm and Bold are going to be a big boost to RIM, as Wayne said. Of course, Apple has the ace up their sleeve of releasing the iPhone to other carriers. I wonder how long that exclusive contract with AT&T lasts?

I think I read its 2009

[svandamme]

the real number that counts for RIM is business users

take out the ipod gadget nuts, and how much of the market does Apple have then?
RIM has never been in the gadget market, but in the business market
It offers security features that Apple just doesn't



apples and oranges...

[Porsche-O-Phile]

I also think that in a deep recession, the market for high-tech, expensive electronic business toys will be pretty weak.

I wouldn't waste my time on stocks for either, to be honest.

[cstreit]

I'm thinking the Storm WILL take much of that Market. WHile the iPhone is cool it's not nearly as practical as the BB. I imagine Apples phones might outsell for a bit, but is it sustainable?

[svandamme]

Originally Posted by Porsche-O-Phile

I also think that in a deep recession, the market for high-tech, expensive electronic business toys will be pretty weak.

I wouldn't waste my time on stocks for either, to be honest.

well so far, at least in Belgium the demand is higher then the supply
there is a shortage of BB devices at the carriers, 88xx, Javelin, Bold
out of stock..

if RIM would friggin get the things to the carriers, maybe they'de sell more of em

[slakjaw]

Originally Posted by cstreit

I'm thinking the Storm WILL take much of that Market. WHile the iPhone is cool it's not nearly as practical as the BB. I imagine Apples phones might outsell for a bit, but is it sustainable?

I agree that the iphone is not practical IMO but people want image which BB has not had since around 2004.

[onewhippedpuppy]

iPhone = toy. BB = tool. It's really that simple. iPhone has lots of neat gizmos to play with, but not as much real business functionality, especially with the lack of enterprise and push email. BB has typically lagged behind in the toy department, but has much more business functionality. Now with BB adding many of the toys and visual appeal of the iPhone, while keeping and enhancing the business functionality.......it's win-win.

[Scooter]

Matt, check your facts on the iPhone. You will find that the iPhone does have push and enterprise functionality. It really is a great business phone.

[kstar]

Originally Posted by onewhippedpuppy

iPhone = toy. BB = tool. It's really that simple.

. . . snip . . .

No, it isn't.

[kstar]

Just got this in the mail:

Dumb iPhone predictions: A look back

Now that Apple (AAPL) has shipped its 10 millionth iPhone this year — outselling Research in Motion’s (RIMM) BlackBerry for the quarter, according to Steve Jobs, and climbing to the No. 3 spot in cell phone revenues worldwide, after Nokia (NOK) and Samsung — this might be a good time to revisit MacDailyNews‘ collection the dumbest things people have said about the device over the past two years.

A sampling:

“Apple is slated to come out with a new phone… And it will largely fail.”
Michael Kanellos, CNET, December 07, 2006


“[Apple's iPhone] is the most expensive phone in the world and it doesn’t appeal to business customers because it doesn’t have a keyboard which makes it not a very good email machine… So, I, I kinda look at that and I say, well, I like our strategy. I like it a lot.”
Steve Ballmer, Microsoft CEO, January 17, 2007

“Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone… What Apple risks here is its reputation as a hot company that can do no wrong. If it’s smart it will call the iPhone a ‘reference design’ and pass it to some suckers to build with someone else’s marketing budget. Then it can wash its hands of any marketplace failures… Otherwise I’d advise people to cover their eyes. You are not going to like what you’ll see.”
John C. Dvorak, Bloated Gas Bag, March 28, 2007

“The iPhone is going to be nothing more than a temporary novelty that will eventually wear off.”
Gundeep Hora, CoolTechZone Editor-in-Chief, April 02, 2007

“I’m more convinced than ever that, after an initial frenzy of publicity and sales to early adopters, iPhone sales will be unspectacular… iPhone may well become Apple’s next Newton.”
David Haskin, Computerworld, February 26, 2007

“There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance. It’s a $500 subsidized item. They may make a lot of money. But if you actually take a look at the 1.3 billion phones that get sold, I’d prefer to have our software in 60% or 70% or 80% of them, than I would to have 2% or 3%, which is what Apple might get.”
Steve Ballmer, Microsoft CEO, 30 April 2007

“How do you deal with that? How do they deal with us?”
Ed Zander, Motorola CEO/Chairman May 10, 2007

“It just doesn’t matter anymore. There are now alternatives to the iPhone, which has been introduced everywhere else in the world. It’s no longer a novelty.”
Eamon Hoey, Hoey and Associates, April 30, 2008

http://apple20.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2008/10/22/revisiting-the-dumbest-iphone-predictions/

[kstar]

Read Ballmer's quotes above in the context of the present:

As for where this growth positions the iPhone industry-wide, recall Microsoft’s projections for Windows Mobile licenses this year:

The warning signs were there. After boldly proclaiming that it would sell “more than” 20 million licenses to its Windows Mobile operating system by the end of its fiscal year on June 30, Microsoft later scaled that prediction back to “nearly” 20 million units. This week, however, the software giant conceded it did not hit its target: The company sold just 18 million units in the fiscal year.

So not only is Windows Mobile growth significantly slower than what Microsoft had publicly anticipated, but the iPhone seems set to surpass unit sales of all Windows Mobile phones combined next year. In fact, given that Apple acknowledged during yesterday’s conference call that, including October sales to date, they’ve already surpassed 10 million iPhones sold for calendar year 2008, the iPhone may well already be outselling all Windows Mobile phones combined.

My emphasis in bold added.

http://daringfireball.net/

[kstar]

Pardon my "fanboi" posts, but this is a good day for us smug, smarmy Mac folk.

It's been a long 24 years.

Complete list of quotes from which the Forbes list was culled:

• "[iPhone] just doesn't matter anymore. There are now alternatives to the iPhone, which has been introduced everywhere else in the world. It's no longer a novelty." - Eamon Hoey, Hoey and Associates, April 30, 2008

• "We are not at all worried. We think we've got the one mobile platform you'll use for the rest of your life. [Apple] are not going to catch up." - Scott Rockfeld, Microsoft Mobile Communications Group Product Manager, April 01, 2008

• "Microsoft, with Windows Mobile/ActiveSync, Nokia with Intellisync, and Motorola with Good Technology have all fared poorly in the enterprise. We have no reason to expect otherwise from Apple." - Peter Misek, Canaccord Adams analyst, March 07, 2008

• "[Apple should sell 7.9 million iPhones in 2008]... Apple's goal of selling 10 million iPhones this year is optimistic." - Toni Sacconaghi, Bernstein Research analyst, February 22, 2008

• "What does the iPhone offer that other cell phones do not already offer, or will offer soon? The answer is not very much... Apple’s stated goal of selling 10 million iPhones by the end of 2008 seems ambitious." - Laura Goldman, LSG Capital, May 21, 2007

• Motorola's then-Chairman and then-CEO Ed Zander said his company was ready for competition from Apple's iPhone, due out the following month. "How do you deal with that?" Zander was asked at the Software 2007 conference. Zander quickly retorted, "How do they deal with us?" - Ed Zander, May 10, 2007

• "The iPhone is going to be nothing more than a temporary novelty that will eventually wear off." - Gundeep Hora, CoolTechZone Editor-in-Chief, April 02, 2007

• "Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone... What Apple risks here is its reputation as a hot company that can do no wrong. If it's smart it will call the iPhone a 'reference design' and pass it to some suckers to build with someone else's marketing budget. Then it can wash its hands of any marketplace failures... Otherwise I'd advise people to cover their eyes. You are not going to like what you'll see." - John C. Dvorak, Bloated Gas Bag, March 28, 2007

• "Even if [the iPhone] is opened up to third parties, it is difficult to see how the installed base of iPhones can reach the level where it becomes a truly attractive service platform for operator and developer investment." - Tony Cripps, Ovum Service Manager for Mobile User Experience, March 14, 2007

• "I'm more convinced than ever that, after an initial frenzy of publicity and sales to early adopters, iPhone sales will be unspectacular... iPhone may well become Apple's next Newton." - David Haskin, Computerworld, February 26, 2007

• "Consumers are not used to paying another couple hundred bucks more just because Apple makes a cool product. Some fans will buy [iPhone], but for the rest of us it's a hard pill to swallow just to have the coolest thing." - Neil Strother, NPD Group analyst, January 22, 2007

• "The iPhone's willful disregard of the global handset market will come back to haunt Apple." - Tero Kuittinen, RealMoney.com, January 18, 2007

• "[Apple's iPhone] is the most expensive phone in the world and it doesn't appeal to business customers because it doesn't have a keyboard which makes it not a very good email machine... So, I, I kinda look at that and I say, well, I like our strategy. I like it a lot." - Steve Ballmer, Microsoft CEO, January 17, 2007

• "The iPhone is nothing more than a luxury bauble that will appeal to a few gadget freaks. In terms of its impact on the industry, the iPhone is less relevant... Apple is unlikely to make much of an impact on this market... Apple will sell a few to its fans, but the iPhone won't make a long-term mark on the industry." - Matthew Lynn, Bloomberg, January 15, 2007

• "iPhone which doesn't look, I mean to me, I'm looking at this thing and I think it's kind of trending against, you know, what's really going, what people are really liking on, in these phones nowadays, which are those little keypads. I mean, the Blackjack from Samsung, the Blackberry, obviously, you know kind of pushes this thing, the Palm, all these... And I guess some of these stocks went down on the Apple announcement, thinking that Apple could do no wrong, but I think Apple can do wrong and I think this is it." - John C. Dvorak, Bloated Gas Bag, January 13, 2007

• "I am pretty skeptical. I don’t think [iPhone] will meet the fantastic predictions I have been reading. For starters, while Apple basically established the market for portable music players, the phone market is already established, with a number of major brands. Can Apple remake the phone market in its image? Success is far from guaranteed." - Jack Gold, founder and principal analyst at J. Gold Associates, January 11, 2007

• "Apple will launch a mobile phone in January, and it will become available during 2007. It will be a lovely bit of kit, a pleasure to behold, and its limited functionality will be easy to access and use. The Apple phone will be exclusive to one of the major networks in each territory and some customers will switch networks just to get it, but not as many as had been hoped. As customers start to realise that the competition offers better functionality at a lower price, by negotiating a better subsidy, sales will stagnate. After a year a new version will be launched, but it will lack the innovation of the first and quickly vanish. The only question remaining is if, when the iPod phone fails, it will take the iPod with it." - Bill Ray, The Register, December 26, 2006

• "The economics of something like [an Apple iPhone] aren't that compelling." - Rod Bare, Morningstar analyst, December 08, 2006

• "Apple is slated to come out with a new phone... And it will largely fail.... Sales for the phone will skyrocket initially. However, things will calm down, and the Apple phone will take its place on the shelves with the random video cameras, cell phones, wireless routers and other would-be hits... When the iPod emerged in late 2001, it solved some major problems with MP3 players. Unfortunately for Apple, problems like that don't exist in the handset business. Cell phones aren't clunky, inadequate devices. Instead, they are pretty good. Really good." - Michael Kanellos, CNET, December 07, 2006

• "We've learned and struggled for a few years here figuring out how to make a decent phone. PC guys are not going to just figure this out. They're not going to just walk in." - Ed Colligan, Palm CEO, November 16, 2006

http://macdailynews.com/index.php/weblog/comments/18840/

[MRM]

Impossible. The iPhone failed. I read it here on PPOTBB. It must be true.

Seriously, RIM is not a good strategic stock to buy, and Apple is a one trick pony. Apple develops a new device every year or so, gets great earnings off of it, their price shoots up, the novelty of the device wears off, competition moves in, Apple's earnings fall and their stock takes a hit. Don't look at Apple as a tech stock. Look at is as a consumer stock like Best Buy. Compare Best Buy's stock with Apple's and I'll bet you'll see them both swing up when times are good and there's a new product out; they both sag at other times.

RIM is in a bad position, not because the Blackberry is a bad product. It's a good product and it generates a lot of revenue. But the share price already reflects the revenue the BB generates, so RIM needs to expand the brand or come up with new products to generate new revenue. When it came out the BB was revolutionary. Now there's a BB knock off on every corner and serious competitors are creating excellent products. RIM is being squeezed, and will get squeezed more as the business smart phone becomes comdotized.

RIM and Apple will fluxuate in price but they will never again be the incredible stocks they were because the market their game-changing products created are becoming mature. Unless they can come up with more market-creating products, they will stagnate where they are, fending off competition from everyone who wants to build a phone/PDA/computer/MP3 player with 90% of the capabilities for 50% of the price. Of the two, Apple has the best chance because it has a history of creating new devices that create new markets, but it alwys comes back to the same business plan of having to create a new revolutionary device every year or so to maintain the rush of increased earnings that supports a high share price.

[techweenie]

Apple cannot succeed. I know. I heard it at the West Coast Computer Faire in April '77, and by over 100 industry pundits, since.

I mean, how could you believe in a company fronted by a damn 21-year old hippie?

[slakjaw]

Originally Posted by MRM

Impossible. The iPhone failed. I read it here on PPOTBB. It must be true.

Seriously, RIM is not a good strategic stock to buy, and Apple is a one trick pony. Apple develops a new device every year or so, gets great earnings off of it, their price shoots up, the novelty of the device wears off, competition moves in, Apple's earnings fall and their stock takes a hit. Don't look at Apple as a tech stock. Look at is as a consumer stock like Best Buy. Compare Best Buy's stock with Apple's and I'll bet you'll see them both swing up when times are good and there's a new product out; they both sag at other times.

RIM is in a bad position, not because the Blackberry is a bad product. It's a good product and it generates a lot of revenue. But the share price already reflects the revenue the BB generates, so RIM needs to expand the brand or come up with new products to generate new revenue. When it came out the BB was revolutionary. Now there's a BB knock off on every corner and serious competitors are creating excellent products. RIM is being squeezed, and will get squeezed more as the business smart phone becomes comdotized.

RIM and Apple will fluxuate in price but they will never again be the incredible stocks they were because the market their game-changing products created are becoming mature. Unless they can come up with more market-creating products, they will stagnate where they are, fending off competition from everyone who wants to build a phone/PDA/computer/MP3 player with 90% of the capabilities for 50% of the price. Of the two, Apple has the best chance because it has a history of creating new devices that create new markets, but it alwys comes back to the same business plan of having to create a new revolutionary device every year or so to maintain the rush of increased earnings that supports a high share price.

I agree I don't think the novelty of the iphone has worn off enough yet to call anything RIM develops an "iphone killer" though.