DECISIVE BATTLES - Pick The Most Decisive and Provide Rationale...

[m21sniper]

Originally Posted by Super_Dave_D

Well at least you backed off the term perfected. I agree that they were the first to employ the general tactic. Tanks and aircraft were not advanced enough.

The US Army still uses blitzkrieg tactics, and is still refining them even to this day.

So yes, "perfected" was an overstatement by me. "Invented" would have been more appropriate.

[1967 R50/2]

Originally Posted by Taz's Master

With no Normandy landing, or had the Germans pushed the Allies off the beaches, where do you think the limits on Soviet control of Europe would have been drawn? Do you think that would have resulted in the Cold War going hot? It's ironic that Normandy was pushed for by Stalin, but ended up setting limits for Soviet dominance of Europe.

Clearly the Soviets could have advanced to the Atlantic had they so desired. Indeed they probably would have as it would have given the Soviets access to real oceanic ports that has been their desire (and the aim of the Russian Empire before) seemingly, forever.

Allied troops and the hanging threat of the atomic bomb stopped that.

Would the cold war have gone hot? Dunno. Different scenario entirely.

[pwd72s]

Whole lot of "what if's" when one looks at the history of war.

[m21sniper]

Originally Posted by 1967 R50/2

5. In the modern era: Midway. Battle could have gone either way and would really have decided the fate of the war in the Pacific.

While midway could have gone either way, it would not have mattered in the end. The Japanese lost WWII the instant the first bomb landed on a US target at Pearl Harbor.

By the end of WWII the USN had IIRC 173 carriers of all types. The 3 at Midway were not going to make any real difference at all even if we lost all of them. For this reason, one cannot really argue that Midway was decisive...because the outcome of the war was already a foregone conclusion.

As for the Japanese, the utter destruction of Kido Butai ended all designs for pursuing an offensive doctrine in the Pacific. Forever after, they were on the strategic defensive.

[1967 R50/2]

Originally Posted by m21sniper

While midway could have gone either way, it would not have mattered in the end. The Japanese lost WWII the instant the first bomb landed on a US target at Pearl Harbor.

By the end of WWII the USN had IIRC 173 carriers of all types. The 3 at Midway were not going to make any real difference at all even if we lost all of them. For this reason, one cannot really argue that Midway was decisive...because the outcome of the war was already a foregone conclusion.

As for the Japanese, the utter destruction of Kido Butai ended all designs for pursuing an offensive doctrine in the Pacific. Forever after, they were on the strategic defensive.

I find this a bit speculative. Nor do I think the conclusion was foregone., I also take issue with those who say it was American industry that won the war.

Although clearly a part of it, the much larger factor was American SCIENCE and TECHNOLOGY. We had the planes (B-29, P-51Norden Bomb Site), subs (GATO campaigns in the Pacific), Computers, (code cracking and targetting), radar and most importantly the A-bomb.

Unfortunately we had few of these items in 1941-1942. If the Japanese had won at Midway, there would have been little stopping them from running rampant over the Pacific, besieging Hawaii and maybe bombing the Panama Canal zone (to prevent transfer of fleets). In short, it would have been very hard for the US to maintain any kind of surface naval presence in the Pacific with no carriers

Of course the Japanese army kept advancing in China and Burma almost until the end of the war. They would have advanced much furtherer had we not kept our allies supplied. Without a surface navy that would have been impossible.

[jyl]

Had the US carrier fleet been wiped out, how could Japan have stopped us from building more carriers? Japan's five or six carriers could not have sustained air superiority over the West Coast, not against large numbers of land based US planes. The shipyards of the West Coast would have replaced the Midway losses in six months.

[1967 R50/2]

Originally Posted by jyl

Had the US carrier fleet been wiped out, how could Japan have stopped us from building more carriers? Japan's five or six carriers could not have sustained air superiority over the West Coast, not against large numbers of land based US planes. The shipyards of the West Coast would have replaced the Midway losses in six months.

You miss my point: Out and out production did not win the war by itself. Technology did. Technology we did not have in 1942.

But the counter question to yours is: If we had lost Midway, how could we have stopped them from raiding the west coast, including the shipyards?

We could not...or at least we would be severly hindered.

With the advantage of mobility they could pretty much pick the time and place.... Anywhere our forces were not. The US military would have been relegated to the role of "Waiting for them to arrive."


BTW: If the US had lost Midway, there is no way the US could have replaced 3 heavy carriers in 6 months. ONLY 1 Essex class carrier was produced in 1942 and only 3 of the light Independence class carriers. And all came in the 2nd half of the year. Not quite up to going face to face with the Japanese heavies.

[imcarthur]

Originally Posted by 1967 R50/2

1 Of ancient battles, probably the most decisive was Actium. It assured the fate of the Roman Republic/Empire for centuries.

I would disagree. The Republic was dead by Actium. The battle decided who the 1st emperor was going to be (excluding JC of course), however.

To the list, I thing the battle of Aquae Sextiae in 102BC & the subsequent battle of Vercellae in 101BC should be included. If the German migration had been successful, the Roman world might well have been cut short by 500 years. Gaius Marius & Sulla are often ignored - probably because they both turned nasty in their older years.

Ian

[m21sniper]

Originally Posted by 1967 R50/2

I find this a bit speculative. Nor do I think the conclusion was foregone., I also take issue with those who say it was American industry that won the war.

Although clearly a part of it, the much larger factor was American SCIENCE and TECHNOLOGY. We had the planes (B-29, P-51Norden Bomb Site), subs (GATO campaigns in the Pacific), Computers, (code cracking and targetting), radar and most importantly the A-bomb.

Unfortunately we had few of these items in 1941-1942. If the Japanese had won at Midway, there would have been little stopping them from running rampant over the Pacific, besieging Hawaii and maybe bombing the Panama Canal zone (to prevent transfer of fleets). In short, it would have been very hard for the US to maintain any kind of surface naval presence in the Pacific with no carriers

The premise i laid out is that arrived at in the book Shattered Sword, probably the pre-eminent non fiction work on the Battle of Midway.

I highly reccomend it.

Midway was not a decisive engagement because, in reality, the outcome of the war was already decided.

[m21sniper]

Originally Posted by 1967 R50/2

You miss my point: Out and out production did not win the war by itself. Technology did. Technology we did not have in 1942.

But the counter question to yours is: If we had lost Midway, how could we have stopped them from raiding the west coast, including the shipyards?

We could not...or at least we would be severly hindered.

Incorrect, the entire US P38 Lightning fleet, BY FAR the most advanced long ranged single seat fighter in the world at that time, was tasked with the defense of the US west coast. What's more, without first taking Hawaii, no attacks on the west coast were even reasonable.

Using 20/20 hindsight, any Japanese attempt to take the Hawaiin Isles would've ended in disaster.

Originally Posted by 1967 R50/2

With the advantage of mobility they could pretty much pick the time and place.... Anywhere our forces were not. The US military would have been relegated to the role of "Waiting for them to arrive."

You are massively under estimating US Manpower and production capability in the areas of fighters and warships. Kido Butai was already hobbled from Coral Sea. Even before Midway they'd suffered irreplaceable losses.

Originally Posted by 1967 R50/2

BTW: If the US had lost Midway, there is no way the US could have replaced 3 heavy carriers in 6 months. ONLY 1 Essex class carrier was produced in 1942 and only 3 of the light Independence class carriers. And all came in the 2nd half of the year. Not quite up to going face to face with the Japanese heavies.

The Japanese Heavies were irreplaceable, as were their aircrews. At whatever stage they were lost, they'd have been gone forever. What's more, you are totally overlooking US production in "escort carriers" and submarines(which in and of themselves are very dangerous counters to any carrier fleet)

Midway was not a decisive battle.

[varmint]

the first big essex class carrier did not reach the pacific til may of 43. and the bad guys had there own new ships under construction.

the japanese could have easily taken some of the hawaiian islands. and made a run at oahu. retaking them would have been a nightmare. image the nightmare naval battles around guadalcanal off waikiki beach. or okinawa with american civilians in the cross fire.

the japanese strategy was to take as much territory as possible, and then negotiate a peace. with the german threat much more real in FDR's mind, and his advisors talking about a pacific war stretching into 1947, it might have made sense.

[Super_Dave_D]

Originally Posted by m21sniper

The Japanese Heavies were irreplaceable, as were their aircrews. At whatever stage they were lost, they'd have been gone forever. What's more, you are totally overlooking US production in "escort carriers" and submarines(which in and of themselves are very dangerous counters to any carrier fleet)

Midway was not a decisive battle.

I agree - It was all about who could produce the most stuff. Japan and Germany BOTH found out the hard way!

I will take 50,000 Shermans over an est. 1200 Tigers anyday!

[m21sniper]

Originally Posted by varmint

the first big essex class carrier did not reach the pacific til may of 43. and the bad guys had there own new ships under construction.

The japanese produced a mere handful of new carriers during the war. The US, on the other hand, produced very close to 200 new carriers during the war.

Originally Posted by varmint

the japanese could have easily taken some of the hawaiian islands. and made a run at oahu.

Easily? How can you say that when historically they failed utterly at even taking Midway? Do you know how many divisions of troops the US could have flooded the Hawaiin Islands with? Not just infantry, but armor as well. And hundreds, if not thousands of fighters.

Post war analysis of the Japanese threat to Hawaii showed that it was never a realistic threat at all.

Originally Posted by varmint

the japanese strategy was to take as much territory as possible, and then negotiate a peace. with the german threat much more real in FDR's mind, and his advisors talking about a pacific war stretching into 1947, it might have made sense.

The US was never going to accept anything short of unconditional(or very close to it) victory.

Even with the casualty projections of Olympic and Coronet, and all the suffering we'd seen all accross the Pacific, there was no serious thought given to cancelling Operation Downfall, the military invasion of the Japanese Home Islands.

[m21sniper]

Originally Posted by Super_Dave_D

I agree - It was all about who could produce the most stuff. Japan and Germany BOTH found out the hard way!

I will take 50,000 Shermans over an est. 1200 Tigers anyday!

Yep.

[varmint]

Originally Posted by m21sniper

T\
Easily? How can you say that when historically they failed utterly at even taking Midway? Do you know how many divisions of troops the US could have flooded the Hawaiin Islands with? Not just infantry, but armor as well. And hundreds, if not thousands of fighters.

\

the whole point of this discussion is to speculate on what would have happened if we'd lost the naval battle of midway. the japanese invasion only turned back because they lost air superiority. the marines on the island simply could not have held.

imagine losing the enterprise and hornet as well as the yorktown. most of the enemy carriers survive. the japanese then have almost ten months before the first essex class shows up. they base bombers out of midway, land on kaua'i, and put up a fighter strip there.

the p-38s are all going to europe. the pacific command has to beg for everything they get. the sub fleet is still crippled by torpedo problems. and surface ships are useless without air cover. it only makes sense to withdraw the fleet back to san diego.

armor almost pointless on a jungle island. and the enemy could have cut off and starved any army there. exactly the way macarthur and nimitz treated most of their strongholds. look at how corrigedor and the phillipines fell.

american industry would win eventually. but the war goes on 2-3 years longer.

[tabs]

Midway DID NOT end Japanese Offensive operations..they were continuing on down the Solomons Islands building an airstrip at Guadalcanal and were moving troops over the Owen Stanley mountains in New Guinea.

As previously stated the Japanese air crews were being depleted and were not at full strength anymore by the time of Midway. That was how shallow the Japanese well of trained manpower and material was in conducting their Pacific war of aggression.

Science and Technology comes from having a mfg base. All things considered The USA MASS PRODUCED its way to victory in WW2. Plain and Simple.

The USA was basically one step behind Germany in technology ( the Germans were the first to put Jets and rockets into military operation). Before the war American scientists all looked to Germany for technical expertise. Germany by excluding and persecuting the Jews shot itself in the foot with regards to science and technology. As many of their top scientists left Germany before the war with the USA as their destination. The Germans had a nuclear program but suspended it in 1942. Hitler even ordered the suspension of the development of new fighter aircraft in 1941, his thinking was that the war was already won. This all slowed the German armaments industry from putting new models at the front. Germany did NOT go to a complete war time economy until 1945....they were still making Steinway Pianos in 1945.

The German armaments industry was basically very inefficient working at cross purposes with each other, that even extended to the German military. AS the Luftwaffe did not cooperate with the Kriegsmarine in the war in the Atlantic. The Luftwaffe had its own infantry and mechanised divisions. The Waffen SS was an independent command, but for practical purposes was subordinated to the German Army. Each member of Hitlers entourage basically had their own fiefdom which they jealously guarded, as was Hitlers style of leaderhsip...It was only Albert Speers organizational skills that coordinated the German armaments industry after he took over in 1942. Even with the Heavy bombing by the US and Brits of Germany, Germany produced more war material in 1944 then at any time before.

Keitle in a conversation with Guderian in 1943 stated that Germany was losing 150,000 men a month without fighting any major battles. But could only replace 75.000 of them a month...This statement indicates that Hitler and the German High Command knew the war was lost, due to attrition of manpower and material.

Had the US lost at Midway, it would have put the Hawaiian islands into play....possibly neutralizing them as a jumping off place for military operations. It would also have made Australia's existence more tenous.

The Japanese wouldn't have had the reach to seriously threaten the West Coast on a continuing basis. However the West Coast of the US as a base of operations instead of Hawaii would have made it much more difficult to win.

[m21sniper]

Originally Posted by varmint

the whole point of this discussion is to speculate on what would have happened if we'd lost the naval battle of midway. the japanese invasion only turned back because they lost air superiority. the marines on the island simply could not have held.

Hold what ? The Island itself was useless for what the Japanese needed. That was one of the great failures of the Japanese plan to begin with. They expected to turn it into a major base, but it was wholly unsuited for such a use. Their intel sucked, the entire operation was nonsensical. As was their invasion of the Aleutians.

Originally Posted by varmint

imagine losing the enterprise and hornet as well as the yorktown. most of the enemy carriers survive. the japanese then have almost ten months before the first essex class shows up. they base bombers out of midway, land on kaua'i, and put up a fighter strip there.

You're smoking hashish. Huge quantities of it. The US would have had Hawaii so well defended the whole darn IJA couldn't have taken it.

No post war study has suggested the Japanese could ever have taken Hawaii due to a US loss at Midway. It's a total pipe dream. It's even more ridiculous a hypothetical than Sea Lion was in the ETO.

Originally Posted by varmint

the p-38s are all going to europe. the pacific command has to beg for everything they get. the sub fleet is still crippled by torpedo problems. and surface ships are useless without air cover. it only makes sense to withdraw the fleet back to san diego.

The P38 fleet was only sent to Europe in response to the disastrous early daylight bombing raids over Germany, and only because the threat to the West Coast- which was never real anyway- had receded.

USN Surface ships operating off the US West coast would have had air cover from P38s as far out as 1000-1500+ miles from shore. Had the P-38s been moved to Hawaii(as they'd almost certainly have been if the US lost at Midway), they'd have been able to start hitting any Japanese Invasion fleet at ranges triple that of the Japanese own carrier based fighters ability to launch strikes.

It is true the USN MK13 torpedo was a disaster, but they did work sometimes, and the US would have had so many subs guarding the approaches to Hawaii it's highly likely they'd have done some significant damage to the Japanese Invasion fleet.

Originally Posted by varmint

armor almost pointless on a jungle island.

Hawaii is not a jungle island, and no, armor is not useless in Jungle terrain either. Limited yes, but not useless. All the more so because of the IJA's complete lack of suitable anti-armor weapons.

Originally Posted by varmint

and the enemy could have cut off and starved any army there.

With What? Flying against Hawaii Kido Butai would have been outnumbered massively in aircraft. Probably 4 or 5 to 1. If not more. And unlike Pearl, there would be no massive strategic surprise.

The US would have been waiting for them, with the kitchen sink.

Originally Posted by varmint

american industry would win eventually. but the war goes on 2-3 years longer.

It would not have lengthened the war appreciably given the fact that US heavy bombers flying out of China using atomic weapons would have still ended it in 1945.

The Japanese just plain could not compete in the long term with US industry and manpower levels, let alone the US nuclear program.

[m21sniper]

Originally Posted by tabs

Midway DID NOT end Japanese Offensive operations..they were continuing on down the Solomons Islands building an airstrip at Guadalcanal and were moving troops over the Owen Stanley mountains in New Guinea.

As previously stated the Japanese air crews were being depleted and were not at full strength anymore by the time of Midway. That was how shallow the Japanese well of trained manpower and material was in conducting their Pacific war of aggression.

Science and Technology comes from having a mfg base. All things considered The USA MASS PRODUCED its way to victory in WW2. Plain and Simple.

The offensive operations the Japanese conducted post Midway were for the mot part aimed at strengthening their defensive perimeter.

The threat to Aus was gone after the Battle of the Coral Sea.

Originally Posted by tabs

Had the US lost at Midway, it would have put the Hawaiian islands into play....possibly neutralizing them as a jumping off place for military operations. It would also have made Australia's existence more tenous.

The Japanese wouldn't have had the reach to seriously threaten the West Coast on a continuing basis. However the West Coast of the US as a base of operations instead of Hawaii would have made it much more difficult to win.

The Hawaiin Islands were never in play, nor would they ever be in play. Japan simply lacked the assets to take them. Every single post war study on the subject has borne this out (AFAIK).

There was never any real Japanese threat to the West Coast. In retrospect the entire notion was laughable.

[pwd72s]

I voted for the Battle of the bulge. Why? Because I have the honor of knowing one who was there, Sgt. Don Malarkey.

A quote from his book, "Easy Company Soldier".

"The seige of Bastogne was finally broken. A tank battalion from Patton's 3rd Army had penetrated the German lines and rolled into town. That was wonderful. The circle was broken. We could get supplies in and wounded out. But later, we heard that the 3rd had rescued us. That cockeyed idea is phonier than a three-dollar bill. Easy company didn't need rescuing."

[tabs]

Originally Posted by m21sniper

The offensive operations the Japanese conducted post Midway were for the mot part aimed at strengthening their defensive perimeter.

The threat to Aus was gone after the Battle of the Coral Sea.


The Hawaiin Islands were never in play, nor would they ever be in play. Japan simply lacked the assets to take them. Every single post war study on the subject has borne this out (AFAIK).

There was never any real Japanese threat to the West Coast. In retrospect the entire notion was laughable.

The move down the Solomons was an extension of their empire...a gamble on their part..

Coral Sea did not end the threat to Australia..the move over the Owen Stanley's and a subsequent base on he Australian side of the island would have endangered Australia.


A loss at Midway would have opened the Hawaiian islands up to attack, thus making them a more unstable base of operations. Also the West Coast would have been opened up to Japanese raids...the end result is that the war in the Pacific would not have been the foregone conclusion it was but would have eventually ended the same way only it would have taken longer.