Will the "Gun Bubble" break?

[jyl]

You have to think back a little further. Gun industry was caught by surprise when gun demand slowed in late 2007. Sales fell sharply (growth went negative YOY), distributor and manufacturer inventory ballooned, manufacturers resported to heavy promotions to clear inventories. See SWHC stock chart and FBI NICS check data. Through most of 2008, industry was stuck in that slump - and recession hadn't even hit hard yet. Gun mania came just in time to save industry from the worst of the recession, and they had lots of excess inventory to take advantage of it.

[jyl]

Here is FBI NICS check data in YOY. Not perfect tracker of gun unit sales, but pretty good. You can see gun industry was doing very well in 2007, then around start of hunting season 2007 growth fell apart, and stayed weak for a year. The gun mania of 2008/09 was a godsend.

[legion]

But they didn't have any excess inventory. They'd largely idled their factories, laid off staff, and sold off whatever inventory they had unintentionally stockpiled with deep discounts.

We have quite a few manufacturers in western Illinois (Armalite, Rock River Arms, for example) and they were HURTING. They were adjusting to what they saw as permanently lower demand. I don't think any were in danger of going out of business (yet), but they knew their operations had to scale back. Rock River Arms was producing a fraction of what they could produce in one shift. Since the beginning of the year, they've been running three shifts (24 hours a day).

The problem with conspiracy theories is that they require large numbers of people to keep their mouths shut forever to work. In the real world, eventually someone always wants to brag that they know the inside story, and in modern times with instant gratification, it can sometimes only be hours before someone opens their mouth. If you look back through history at the great unsolved mysteries (and I'm not talking about the ones old enough that the cultural context is a mystery as well), like Jack the Ripper or the Zodiac killings, they were probably committed by one person who kept his secrets to himself. As soon as a second person is involved, someone eventually wants credit.

[jyl]

In mid 2008, distributors' handgun invtry was starting to come down but long gun invtry was still high, and gun manufacturers' invtry was still much too high. That is an overall statement. Look at financials for RGR and SWHC - wasn't until C1Q09 that their invtry levels got back to desired levels.

I don't know about niche AR makers like RRA.

There's no "conspiracy" behind the recent gun mania. It is pretty straightforward. The gun media and NRA were handed a great opportunity to get people worked up, generate readers and members, and naturally they ran with it. Gun makers and vendors saw an opportunity to profit, so naturally they did. The only loser are the many guys who paid $1,500 for a $800 AR. I recall a few months ago, on this board, there was talk of how black rifles were better than gold and if you couldn't get a AR you had to at least start hoarding parts kits.

[berettafan]

one thing i have noticed is shotgun prices have gone through the roof over the past...maybe 6 yrs or so. outrageous what a nice clays gun costs now. i wanna say a 390 sporting was roughly $730 or so way back when and the current clays model is something like $1050?!!!

[tabs]

Ohhh I don't know a nice Handbilt Custom O/U 12 GA out of Ferlach...for a K.

[jyl]

Here is a more readable version of the NICS check chart, updated to Jun 09. You can see things are coming back down to earth.

By the way, the vertical axis labels are still hard to read, the decimal place doesn't show up - but what may look like "500%" is actually "50.0%".

[Rick Lee]

I wouldn't use NICS stats for measuring gun buying trends. Plenty of states allow face-face, private party sales with no paperwork. I know people, even some Pelicans, who will not do a gun deal that requires paperwork. I've bought or sold probably seven guns in the last year and have filled out paperwork for two of them. And I'm a total lightweight. NICS stats are for folks who buy online from out of state or stumble across something in a gun store they can't live without (happens to me sometimes). But I do parking lot deals all the time.

[m21sniper]

Originally Posted by legion

But they didn't have any excess inventory. They'd largely idled their factories, laid off staff, and sold off whatever inventory they had unintentionally stockpiled with deep discounts.

We have quite a few manufacturers in western Illinois (Armalite, Rock River Arms, for example) and they were HURTING. They were adjusting to what they saw as permanently lower demand. I don't think any were in danger of going out of business (yet), but they knew their operations had to scale back. Rock River Arms was producing a fraction of what they could produce in one shift. Since the beginning of the year, they've been running three shifts (24 hours a day).

The problem with conspiracy theories is that they require large numbers of people to keep their mouths shut forever to work. In the real world, eventually someone always wants to brag that they know the inside story, and in modern times with instant gratification, it can sometimes only be hours before someone opens their mouth. If you look back through history at the great unsolved mysteries (and I'm not talking about the ones old enough that the cultural context is a mystery as well), like Jack the Ripper or the Zodiac killings, they were probably committed by one person who kept his secrets to himself. As soon as a second person is involved, someone eventually wants credit.

"Three may keep a secret, if two of them are dead."
~Benjamin Franklin

[jyl]

NICS is not perfect for all sorts of reasons, but it is the best data available unless you have insider access at multiple gun manufacturers and distributors. And if one had that insider data, it would be illegal to use it (in what I do). So, NICS is good enough.

You know the saying, don't let "perfect" hold you back from "good enough".

Specifically, I understand the reason you point out - that NICS doesn't capture face-to-face private-party sales in certain states - but it is not important to me. I'm interested in revenue to the gun industry, and private-party sales of used guns don't count. Kind of like, if you're trying to track the health of Ford Motor Co, private party sales of Ford cars aren't important.

Originally Posted by Rick Lee

I wouldn't use NICS stats for measuring gun buying trends. Plenty of states allow face-face, private party sales with no paperwork. I know people, even some Pelicans, who will not do a gun deal that requires paperwork. I've bought or sold probably seven guns in the last year and have filled out paperwork for two of them. And I'm a total lightweight. NICS stats are for folks who buy online from out of state or stumble across something in a gun store they can't live without (happens to me sometimes). But I do parking lot deals all the time.

[targa911S]

Originally Posted by tabs

Ohhh I don't know a nice Handbilt Custom O/U 12 GA out of Ferlach...for a K.

Nice Fish scale checkering. It looks VERY French/Belgian.

[Rick Lee]

Pretty sure the National Shooting Sports Foundation has lots of stats on the health of the industry.

[jyl]

I'm sure they do, but you want monthly data if you can get it.

Shooting Industry magazine (and website) is pretty good too.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by targa911S

Nice Fish scale checkering. It looks VERY French/Belgian.

Austrian

[RPKESQ]

Originally Posted by targa911S

Nice Fish scale checkering. It looks VERY French/Belgian.

Good basic Guild gun. That is not fishscale checkering. It is skipline checkering.

[m21sniper]

Originally Posted by jyl

You know the saying, don't let "perfect" hold you back from "good enough".

"Perfect is the enemy of good enough."
~Kelly Johnson

[targa911S]

Originally Posted by tabs

Austrian

I was close....

[targa911S]

Originally Posted by RPKESQ

Good basic Guild gun. That is not fishscale checkering. It is skipline checkering.

Your screen must have better resolution than mine.

[jyl]

Originally Posted by m21sniper

"Perfect is the enemy of good enough."
~Kelly Johnson

That sounds better than what I remembered.

[targa911S]

What's with that white line pad?