Will the "Gun Bubble" break? - Page 2

BlueSkyJaunte · 07-14-2009, 03:26 PM

+2 to Rick and Graham....Wally World here only has 7mm Rem and shot shells.

The range near me is charging $43/box of .45 ACP. And they wonder why it's slow...

tabs · 03:36 PM

As the asault weapon market gets saturated the inventory will build up and prices will eventually return to equlibrium..

I still have my Arsenal Milled receiver AK 47 now for sale at $1150.00
I also have 400 to 500 rounds of Wolf ammo for it at 25 cents a round plus shipping via UPS. Anyone interested you know the drill.

I had it sold on GB for $1250 but the guy never sent the check. The guy also flaked out on 2 other AKs the same week?

targa911S · 07-14-2009, 03:37 PM

Now my collection is mainly older shotguns, doubles mostly. Foxes, SKB, Lefever's, Ithaca's, mostly field grades in the older ones. The SKB's are newer and higher grades. My point being that the cost of black guns is not my concern. The prices on my stuff have been steadily up over the last 5-7 years about 20% per year. I just wonder when the price of a Fox Sterlingworth, Remington early doubles or early Lefevers will stop. Others, Parker, Boss, Purdy and the likes in higher end items has shown me that they can still go up. I'm asking more about how much I should pay. Do I pay more now than I have in the last 5 years with the thought of that same 20% upward trend?

tabs · 07-14-2009, 03:42 PM

From reading my little observations you should have come to some conclusions Targa...

Yep I see the price of good stuff continuing to escalate, more people less supply..If the US goes to inflation watch out the price of a good Parker might be a big downpayment on a house.

targa911S · 07-14-2009, 06:29 PM

I counted on you Tabs. You seem to have the best handle on what's what with what I have.

red-beard · red-beard's Garage

Quote:

Originally Posted by tabs

As the asault weapon market gets saturated the inventory will build up and prices will eventually return to equlibrium..

I still have my Arsenal Milled receiver AK 47 now for sale at $1150.00
I also have 400 to 500 rounds of Wolf ammo for it at 25 cents a round plus shipping via UPS. Anyone interested you know the drill.

I had it sold on GB for $1250 but the guy never sent the check. The guy also flaked out on 2 other AKs the same week?

I left the thumbhole stock on my SLR-95. I like it.

red-beard · red-beard's Garage

When the market gets back to normal, and I have some money, I'm going to get a better M1A. I would prefer an LRB, but I'm not sure I'll have money anytime soon. Probably a standard Springfield.

aigel · aigel's Garage

I can already see it calming down. While still overpriced, the semi auto rifles stay on the shelves now. There will be a lot of people still out of work next year looking for something to turn into cash. I am expecting used gun offerings to be plenty and affordable next year.

George

Jeff Higgins · 07-14-2009, 08:39 PM

None of the firearms that interest me were affected in the least. Single actions, single shots, and lever guns were all but unaffected. I load all of my own ammo, cast my own bullets for 90% of my shooting, and keep a good supply of primers and powder on hand at all times. This whole mad rush was a non-issue for me.

tabs · 07-15-2009, 05:29 AM

Well everybody and there brother rushed out to get those Black Rifles. Now for the most part the demand is being satisified. It will effect other gun market segments, as people put their disposable gun $$$ into those black rifles and not into something else. This is what happened in 94 witht the assault weapon ban. Prices went flat for a few years.

On the Smith Forum one of the denizens was complaining that the prices of guns at auction were nutz. people paying more than retail for a used Saturday Night Special.

Good quality collectable (older used) guns will always retain most of their value if not increase. The newer used that is still in curent production may suffer. Usually a clean used gun that is still in production will be worth let say about 5% under distributor price.

aigel · aigel's Garage

The used gun prices have gone up because the new gun prices have increased by a lot. Even plain Jane stuff. 30% in 5 years is my estimate. This means that your used gun that you bought new 5 years ago can be sold for what you paid for it today.

George

legion · 07-15-2009, 05:11 PM

I think the hysteria has largely worn off and supplies are just starting to come back up.

Then again, I thought the same thing in February and several statements by Eric Holder and Hillary Clinton touched off fresh waves of panic buying.

I do think that manufacturers capacity to produce ammo will have to be increased. I think a lot of life-long shooters have been born in the past eight months. Unfortunately, we are looking at years of short supplies of ammo as most manufacturers are using machines that are decades old. Ironically, I hear that the only manufacturer of large-scale ammo machines still around is a French firm.

jyl · jyl's Garage

Ammo has to be pretty profitable to make. The raw material cost is not high, the technology is old, and the retail price is high. If the US producers decide to sit back and enjoy these high prices, then hopefully some Chinese companies will step in and bring Asian mfg costs to bear. Ironic maybe but it is ridiculous to pay $1.00-1.50 for a single 9mm cartridge.

Rick Lee · Rick Lee's Garage

Quote:

Originally Posted by jyl

Ammo has to be pretty profitable to make. The raw material cost is not high, the technology is old, and the retail price is high. If the US producers decide to sit back and enjoy these high prices, then hopefully some Chinese companies will step in and bring Asian mfg costs to bear. Ironic maybe but it is ridiculous to pay $1.00-1.50 for a single 9mm cartridge.

I think the issue is that suppliers never know when they're gonna get more materials for more productions runs, so they have to charge more to keep in business during the times they can't keep the production going. I know a lot of the gun stores would rather make their old profit margin on guns and be able to order and receive more anytime they want rather than having huge markups for fear of not getting more inventory and then having bare shelves.

jyl · jyl's Garage

Why is the supply of brass, lead, nickel, powder, etc so unpredictable? These seem like basic commodities.

berettafan · 07-16-2009, 04:50 AM

i perceive two bubbles. the soldier of fortune nutbag that owns 15 AR's and 50,000 rds of .223 is one. this bubble won't burst unless these poor guys figure out they're never going to get to legally shoot random people from the tops of buildings. the obama paranoia surely boosted sales and pricing of both guns AND ammo and i personally am not convinced that obama has anything but the worst intentions for the ENTIRE bill of rights.

the other being the collectible gun market. have no idea what's going on with that market.

berettafan · 05:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tabs

As the asault weapon market gets saturated the inventory will build up and prices will eventually return to equlibrium..

I still have my Arsenal Milled receiver AK 47 now for sale at $1150.00
I also have 400 to 500 rounds of Wolf ammo for it at 25 cents a round plus shipping via UPS. Anyone interested you know the drill.

I had it sold on GB for $1250 but the guy never sent the check. The guy also flaked out on 2 other AKs the same week?

See this is exactly where i see a bubble. When people are willing to pay a premium for a milled receiver AK something is out of whack. You take a gun made famous by being a) cheap to manufacture via stampings and b) tolerant of poor conditions due to very loose tolerances and you eliminate those selling points........shouldn't it be worth less? kinda like putting burled walnut and hand stitched leather in a mexican vw bug.

of course i can offer my own counter point...the rem. 870 wingmaster. std. grade 870's are possibly one of the ugliest firearms i've ever handled. but they function and are quite popular. yet i paid a good 60% more to get one with nice blueing and wood. i would claim that for my money i got a smoother action and better rust resistance......but we're still talking about a basic utilitarian firearm.

widebody911 · widebody911's Garage

I wonder how much of the "Obama paranoia" was actually instigated by the gun industry.

charleskieffner · 07-16-2009, 05:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jyl

Why is the supply of brass, lead, nickel, powder, etc so unpredictable? These seem like basic commodities.

CHINA MAN................CHINA! it takes a lot of metals to build a BLUE WATER NAVY!

legion · 07-16-2009, 05:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by widebody911

I wonder how much of the "Obama paranoia" was actually instigated by the gun industry.

If it was, they wouldn't have been caught with their pants down. It took them MONTHS to ramp up manufacturing as gun stores literally sold out of everything. You'd think they'd at least have a stockpile on hand if there was a conspiracy.