Recovery? I Don't Think So (Check July ABI Numbers)

[JeremyD]

Originally Posted by RWebb

for homework, list all the Leading Indicators...

Box Manufactures
Temporary Help and Staffing (general, LI/Clerical)
Underwear Sales (both male and female, non premier)

[jyl]

This shows the index of inquiries for new work, which presumably leads the index of actual billings.

No dispute that it is very tough out there today for architects and lots of other industries. I'm more interested in tommorrow than in today.

[jyl]

Someday I will figure out how to size pictures in MS Paint.

[Porsche-O-Phile]

Agreed - however tomorrow is uncertain at best. There's certainly some demand in healthcare and education, as well as a little in "green building" upgrades as well as occasional remodels. However, here's my take on those growth sectors:

Healthcare is doing well, but is uncertain because of concerns over potential nationalization or pseudo-nationalization. I'm certain that the pending healthcare reform bill is putting a crimp on new projects going forward and a lot of people are taking a "wait and see" attitude before committing money to projects. If the bill goes forward, it will almost certainly adversely impact this sector.

Education is being propped up largely due to stimulus money right now. When that dries up, where will the money for work come from? Pretty unstable place to be right now...

Green building - the jury is still out on how much real dollars this will represent in terms of architectural billings. Some growth here, but a little bit risky. This is where I'm putting my efforts in independent consulting, FWIW.

Remodels will always happen - in fact I foresee virtually ALL work being remodels for the near to intermediate future (5-7 years). Nobody's going to spend big money on new projects (that have to comply with newer, more stringent codes that cost a lot more $$$ to comply with) when there's a glut of vacant buildings of ALL types, sizes, etc. sitting around for the pickin'. Way cheaper to remodel. However, the raw numbers are way down and firms are still suffering from declines in this kind of work.

I'm not saying it'll be down forever, but the prospects for the construction industry at large are very, very bleak for the foreseeable future. Since that industry represents a huge portion of our economy (it did disproportionately in recent years, one of the reasons its declines are being magnified in this downturn), this is not good news. There's simply no demand and a TON of existing supply.