Undeniable Folly of Letting Politicians Dictate Tech Design Solutions

[M.D. Holloway]

A friend sent this to me - pretty interesting...

The Chevy Volt reminds us--once again-- of the undeniable folly of letting government politicians dictate technological design solutions:

Both Popular Mechanics and Motor Trend have completed road testing and report SEVERELY disappointing gas mileage. Popular Mechanics reports a pitiful 32-36 MPG from the $41,000 car--about the same as the gas-powered Hyundai Sonata which costs only $19,000 and features similar creature comforts. To fully appreciate the government collusion angle, consider that the EPA claims the Volt gets 236 MPG on their official 52 mile test cycle. So the 236 MPG EPA Rating is what consumers see on the window sticker when they consider buying. Imagine their disappointment after the first tank of gas!

For more details see this link:
The American Spectator : Embarrassing Volt Charges

But amid all of the hype, the essential question is obvious: Why is the government throwing so much money at a technology that shows so little promise?

Ever since we moved from horse-drawn power to automobiles, the electric-car industry has been promising that it was just on the cusp of viability. Today is no different. We are being told that this time things are different, that the technologies are better, the batteries are better, and that consumers are ready to adopt electrics like never before. Perhaps that’s true. But consider this declaration: The electric car “has long been recognized as the ideal solution” because it “is cleaner and quieter” and “much more economical.” That story was published by The New York Times on November 12, 1911.

Or given that the new Chevy Volt costs as much as a new Mercedes-Benz
C350, consider this assessment by a believing reporter: “Prices on electric cars will continue to drop until they are within reach of the average family.” That line appeared in The Washington Post on
Halloween 1915 .

And since the Volt is being built by GM, this news item says that the giant carmaker has found “a breakthrough in batteries” that “now makes electric cars commercially practical.” The new zinc-nickel oxide batteries will provide the “100-mile range that General Motors executives believe is necessary to successfully sell electric vehicles to the public.” that story was published in The Washington
Post on September 26, 1979



For more read Robert Bryce's Unplugged! Why Electric Cars Are the Next Big Thing...And They Always Will Be Unplugged! Why Electric Cars Are the Next Big Thing...And They Always Will Be | Robert Bryce-author/journalist

Those that aren't familiar with battery physics may be shocked by this disappointing news. But, to better understand why electric cars can not deliver on the politician's promise, review the below chart showing the relative energy density of various automotive fuel sources.



Folks with common-sense will instantly understand that the reason we use gas in our cars isn't because we have been brainwashed by "Big Oil"-- WE USE GAS BECAUSE IT WORKS BEST!

Don't forget these same know-nothing politicians have already passed a new law mandating that by 2016 your new car MUST achieve 35
MPG--even though the $41,000 Chevy Volt can barely reach that number and the Obama Admin is now talking about a totally insane 62 MPG requirement by 2025. MOTORCYCLES CAN'T ACHIEVE 62 MPG! If this law happens you will not be driving anything remotely comparable to car--even if a few real cars are still available you won't be able to afford it.

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2010/10/01/general-specialized-consumer
-services-us-fuel-efficiency_7978767.html?boxes=Homepagebusinessnews

[GH85Carrera]

I am sure glad I don't have to use old car tires to power my cars!

Shoveling coal would suck as well.

[techweenie]

It may ultimately be better to throw billions at emerging electric drive technology than trillions at the middle east. Just sayin.

[GH85Carrera]

Most of our oil comes from Canada & Mexico as I recall.

[techweenie]

Yes, and if we can eliminate that 8-16% we send to the middle east, we can cut off the non-friendlies who are funding Jihadists with our oil money.

[techweenie]

Oh, and a little research shows the typical American Spectator accuracy:

Motor Trend: Chevrolet Volt gets 127 mpg in real-world driving test | MLive.com

Motor Trend reports 127 MPG in real world driving

[MRM]

It's not just that gasoline has a lot of energy in it, it's that it is so easy to convert the mass of one gallon of gas into energy. And that the engine necessary to convert the fuel to energy is so simple and durable. And that petrolium-based fuels are easy to store and transport, the raw material is relatively abundant and easy to obtain, refine and distribute. And that there is nothing else on the horizon that comes close to the cost efficiency of good old fashioned petrolium-based fuels.

We can work on the margins and increase efficiencies with turbo diesels, lighter weight cars, more efficient engines, etc., but we cannot end our use of oil in favor of any other fuel without some brand new (and so far unknown) technology coming on line. Eventually, as oil becomes more expensive, the cost of gas and diesel will rise while new technologies bring down the cost of alternatives, which should make alternatives economically viable. Unless someone finds a huge new source of petroleum in something like shale and develops a more efficient method of extraction, doubling the world's known reserves of petroleum and reducing the cost of extraction.

In which case the Volt will be returned to the same shelf on which the Stanley Steamer sits.

[RWebb]

shale oil has lots of problems

I predict the real solution will be fuel cells

From what I've read, the Volt looks like a good general purpose vehicle w/o some of the constraints of the Nissan Leaf, which is currently limited to commuter use.

Mike - you need to do some checking before posting things as facts.

[sammyg2]

As usual MRM nails it.

BTW, as far as burning old tires for fuel?
Unless I'm mistaken the virgin galactic spaceship burns old tires for fuel and it hits mach 3 and goes into space. I believe the prototype burned old tires and nitrous oxide.
There's a lot of energy in a tire.

[sammyg2]

Originally Posted by RWebb

shale oil has lots of problems

I predict the real solution will be fuel cells

From what I've read, the Volt looks like a good general purpose vehicle w/o some of the constraints of the Nissan Leaf, which is currently limited to commuter use.

Mike - you need to do some checking before posting things as facts.

This is a direct quote form GM's own volt FAQ website:
Chevy Volt FAQs | GM-VOLT : Chevy Volt Electric Car Site

Q: What is the driving range of the Chevy Volt?
A: The car has been designed to drive at least 40 miles on pure electricity stored in the battery from overnight home charging. The acutal range will vary from 25 to 50 miles depending on temperature, terrain, and driving style. (at a whopping equivalent to 35 horsepower, weeeee! my 2 cents)

After that the gas engine will kick in and allow the car to be driven more than miles on a full tank (9.3 gallons) of gas (all 74 horsepower of it, whoopie, my two cents again no, the electric and gas motor horsepower cannot be combined, it doesn't work that way).

Q: How many miles per gallon will the Chevy Volt get?
A: A bit of a trick question. For the first 40 miles it will get infinite mpg, because no gas will be burned. When the generator starts, the car will get an equivalent of between 35 to 40 mpg thereafter. One can calculate the average mpg per for any length drive starting with a full battery:

Total MPG = ~37 x miles/(miles-40). The official EPA fuel economy determination and label has not yet been made available.

Q: How much will the car cost?
A: $41,000, $33,500 after a 7500 tax credit. It may be leased for $350 per month for 36 months, 12,000 miles.

Q: What is the cost of operation of the car?
A: With current average U.S. electric rates GM estimates it will cost roughly $1.50 per day to travel 40 miles. After that, considering mpg in the mid to high 30s, will depend on gasoline rates.

So if you drive 40 miles on the battery and then one mile on gas, you'd get great mileage. but if you drove 40 miles on the battery and then used up the 9 gallon tank at 35 mpg you'd have a total range of 355 miles, at 39 mpg.
At $3 gallon, that's a cost of 16 cents per mile just for fuel.

It's not unsual for a prius to get 46 mpg real world, that's a cost of 15 cents per mile for fuel. Now if you only drive 30 miles a day, it'd save you money. But you'd give up a heck of alot of performance. And it takes 10 hours to re-charge it.

That's not very good for a $41,000 econo box.
The prius outperforms it in every way and costs much less.

And Mike, your facts were spot on.

[MRM]

Randy, I didn't mean to suggest that shale oil literally doubled our proven oil reserves. I don't know how much it expanded our known reserves. I was using shale oil as an example to illustrate the point that oil exploration and technology expands and improves even as technology for alternative energy improves and that quantum leap breakthroughs happen in the fossil fuel industry even more frequently than in the alternative fuel industry.

The point is that alternative energy doesn't make sense until it is as cheap as hydrocarbons. So even though alternative energy gets cheaper, the bar keeps getting higher for alternative fuel to compete with fossil fuels because the petroleum and coal industries are improving their efficiencies at the same time. The joke I heard in college was that the world had 20 years of oil left, and that every 20 years they find another 20 years' reserves.

Geroge Will had an excellent column on this recently.

Oil's Expanding Frontiers - George Will - Townhall Conservative

The problem is that oil and coal are so efficient that it will take a huge technological leap to create an energy source that provides as much energy per pound or gallon, that is as easy to use and transport, and costs as little as fossil fuels. We just don't have a technology like that right now. When turbo diesels make almost the same mileage at a fraction of the cost and infrastructure expense as hybrids, it's clear that the technology isn't there yet.

Until the cost/benefit analysis changes in favor of alternatives, forcing alternative energy onto consumers will be like pushing rope.

[red-beard]

Originally Posted by RWebb

shale oil has lots of problems

I predict the real solution will be fuel cells

What fuel will you be using in the fuel cell?

[red-beard]

Originally Posted by MRM

The problem is that oil and coal are so efficient that it will take a huge technological leap to create an energy source that provides as much energy per pound or gallon, that is as easy to use and transport, and costs as little as fossil fuels. We just don't have a technology like that right now. When turbo diesels make almost the same mileage at a fraction of the cost and infrastructure expense as hybrids, it's clear that the technology isn't there yet.

Until the cost/benefit analysis changes in favor of alternatives, forcing alternative energy onto consumers will be like pushing rope.

And the only one that works and has a higher energy density is Nuclear fission.

[red-beard]

Originally Posted by sammyg2

This is a direct quote form GM's own volt FAQ website:
Chevy Volt FAQs | GM-VOLT : Chevy Volt Electric Car Site




So if you drive 40 miles on the battery and then one mile on gas, you'd get great mileage. but if you drove 40 miles on the battery and then used up the 9 gallon tank at 35 mpg you'd have a total range of 355 miles, at 39 mpg.
At $3 gallon, that's a cost of 16 cents per mile just for fuel.

It's not unsual for a prius to get 46 mpg real world, that's a cost of 15 cents per mile for fuel. Now if you only drive 30 miles a day, it'd save you money. But you'd give up a heck of alot of performance. And it takes 10 hours to re-charge it.

That's not very good for a $41,000 econo box.
The prius outperforms it in every way and costs much less.

And Mike, your facts were spot on.

Agree with all, but we need to look at total life-cycle cost.

It take more energy to build a Hybrid car and even more energy to build an all electric car. This is shown in the higher cost of the vehicle.

Looking at the total lifecycle cost of a Honda Civic at $15K vs. the Hybrid version, we find that while the Hybrid will save energy in post purchase terms, it will never pay for itself in total lifecycle cost. The obvious exception is where the price of the fuel is set by government fiat and not market forces.

[M.D. Holloway]

The true answer - Horses! Lets get back to horses! And while we are at it, how about sidearms as well.

[MRM]

The problem with that is that horses run on beer and riders run on whiskey. The barley/wheat input required to make enough to fuel all the horses and riders would probably stress our food supply. But on the up side we'd gain efficiencies by ending ethanol subsidies. Cutting beer or whiskey with 10% of anything is a hanging offense.

[sammyg2]

Of course all these cost estimates are based on today's fuel costs.
Gasoline, diesel, natural gas and coal are extremely cheap now when compared to alternatives, but what if they weren't so cheap?
What if natural gas prices tripled over the next 5 years? What if gasoline shot up to $7 per gallon and diesel was $8? What if the cost of coal quadrupled over the next several years?

Then the alternative fuels would be more competitive, if anyone could still afford anything.
There are folks out there who are working very hard to do exactly that, raise the cost of fossil fuels so much that the other types of energy can compete.

Onliest problem is, everything we buy or use is related to energy and transportation costs somehow, so raising these prices so much would make everything we buy more expensive so there would be much less discretionary spending left.
California already passed that law to raise those prices through "environmental" taxes and if the proposition to stop it fails, .................................................. .....................
No money, no purchases, no jobs, no money, no businesses, no jobs, no economy.
Very dangerous slippery slope.

[BRPORSCHE]

MRM,

You truly are one smart dude.

[RWebb]

Originally Posted by red-beard

What fuel will you be using in the fuel cell?

I prefer H, but will settle for something we build up from natural gas.

Even if we crack the fuel down from crude oil, it is still cleaner than lighting a fire to push a piston down, then trying to change that linear motion into rotation, and....

I love my IC engine, but you have to admit that it sounds like a Rube Goldberg device.

[RWebb]

MRM - did not take your shale comments too literally, but thanks for expanding on it.

My advice is to not mention the word "fracking" to various people living above shale deposits.

I also want to see the environmental and health issues included in those total life-cycle costs.

I am however, firmly opposed to allowing horses to use sidearms.