If you need fuel, BUY IT TODAY

[Joeaksa]

Oil prices just jumped because of whats going on in Egypt.

If you are low on fuel, buy it NOW before they raise prices.

[kaisen]

Thought you used home-grown diesel, and very little of it

[Joe Ricard]

Everything I own is full. But it will be empty soon, so pay now AND pay later.

[gprsh924]

Saving a few bucks on this one tank of gas saves very little money in the scheme of things. I won't go out of my way to put in half a tank on the drive home tonight. Perhaps if I the my usual station is empty (and I remember) I will stop in.

[EarlyPorsche]

Haha relax.

[Rot 911]

Originally Posted by EarlyPorsche

Haha relax.

Don't do it.

[red-beard]

Everybody Wang Chung tonight!

[Joeaksa]

Originally Posted by kaisen

Thought you used home-grown diesel, and very little of it

I do! Right now in stock we have enough bio, mix and "other fuel" to drive the truck for the next 9 months with no outside purchases.

Was talking about everything that takes gasoline, not diesel although it will be effected eventually on my end.

[1990C4S]

Oil is up 12 cents today. Per barrel.

[ronster]

If a camel farts somewhere in the middle east the profiteers raise the price of oil. It's just another excuse.

[Porsche-O-Phile]

The speculators get excited and think the price might go up, so they buy... expecting to be able to sell tomorrow at a higher price. Their buying drives up the price (self-fulfilling prophecy effect due to others seeing the buy orders and thinking demand is going up so THEY need to buy before the price adjusts tO reflect the new demand, etc.)

Pretty straightforward, predictable market behavior for an event like this. Profiteering and conspiracy has little if anything to do with it...

The big question is whether to go long now (in anticipation of further climbs or go short, betting that this works out and that the run-up has already been realized and is priced into the market...

I'm thinking play the downside but how down... And when? A week? A month?

[sammyg2]

Crude prices do not directly effect retail gas prices. They tend to follow one another in many cases but it's two different markets with two different sets of influences.
The US retail gas market has enough excess supply right now to even out the temporary crude spike. Long term is a different story.

Gas will continue to gradually climb until august or september, peaking at around $4 in the US and $4.50 in California, at least that's my prediction.

[doug_porsche]

In the crude oil market you:

Buy on reality, sell on rumors.

[gt350mike]

Originally Posted by sammyg2

Crude prices do not directly effect retail gas prices. They tend to follow one another in many cases but it's two different markets with two different sets of influences.
The US retail gas market has enough excess supply right now to even out the temporary crude spike. Long term is a different story.

Gas will continue to gradually climb until august or september, peaking at around $4 in the US and $4.50 in California, at least that's my prediction.

Sammy, do think the increase is directly tied to the devaluation of the dollar? Not that it matters for me (I'm going overseas for several months), but what is your opinion on diesel prices?

[svandamme]

Egypt produces less then 1% of the oil in the world... It's not in a very strategic place relative to other oil countries either...
Libya left, Sudan below, Israel/Jordan to the right. It's not in the Gulf.
Egypt produces more natural Gas then Oil...
The military have just gone on the news stating they do not plan to raise the levels of violence towards the civilians.

So my 2 cts, I doubt current events can make that much of a difference on the global price...
I give it 2 more days, 1 week tops, and Mubarak is out of country and in retirement.

[sammyg2]

Originally Posted by svandamme

Egypt produces less then 1% of the oil in the world... It's not in a very strategic place relative to other oil countries either...
Libya left, Sudan below, Israel/Jordan to the right. It's not in the Gulf.
Egypt produces more natural Gas then Oil...
The military have just gone on the news stating they do not plan to raise the levels of violence towards the civilians.

So my 2 cts, I doubt current events can make that much of a difference on the global price...
I give it 2 more days, 1 week tops, and Mubarak is out of country and in retirement.

Two words: SUEZ CANAL!

[svandamme]

And how many boats have been blocked these last few days?

Mubarak won't block em, nothing to be gained.
Anybody who overthrows Mubarak won't block em either.. again, nothing to gain by doing so.

[sammyg2]

Originally Posted by gt350mike

Sammy, do think the increase is directly tied to the devaluation of the dollar? Not that it matters for me (I'm going overseas for several months), but what is your opinion on diesel prices?

The value of a dollar has a direct and almost immediate influence on the price of fuel, with about a 6 to 8 week lag in most cases.

In order to understand what diesel is going to do, watch the price of imported diesel. It's been very cheep over the past two years because demand overseas was down a little, in India, china Russia, Europe, etc. Now the demand is recovering a little over there so imports aren't as cheap and they can't hold down the wholesale price here as much. For the past 2 years refiners have been lucky if they could break even, many lost money.

With oil at $90/bbl, gasoline really should be around $2.70 a gallon wholesale but it's well below that.
As the demand overseas recovers the prices here should be able to equalize, which means more expensive.
That's assuming something unexpected doesn't happen, like the Suez canal shipping getting disrupted.
It only accounts for about 3% of the oil that's shipped world-wide but 3% is enough to completely upset the apple cart until we're rationing odd-even again.

Lots O'info at U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis iffn you have the patience to wade through it.
Info overload at first. I spend prolly an average of 15 minutes a day there and have been for years and still some of it's over my haid.

[jyl]

We use about 10-12 gal per week, so a $1/gal increase in gas cost is fairly irrelevant for us. If it were to increase $2, I'd ride to work more often - prolly good for me.

[sammyg2]

Originally Posted by svandamme

And how many boats have been blocked these last few days?

Mubarak won't block em, nothing to be gained.
Anybody who overthrows Mubarak won't block em either.. again, nothing to gain by doing so.

None so far.
But could it happen? Sure. All it would take is a few of the protesters to attack the shipping and disrupt the canal. They are muslim after all.

Or, it could escalate until Israel gets drawn into the mess and that could mess up the suez. Happened before.

Lots O'things could happen but I'll admit the odds are against it.
We can be sure the speculators are going to hedge their bets just in case.