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-   -   AAPL: How high will it go? (http://forums.pelicanparts.com/off-topic-discussions/698286-aapl-how-high-will-go.html)

krystar 08-28-2012 07:18 AM

this might be the apple killer. now that google's bank is behind motorola mobility

Motorola’s New Patent Lawsuit Against Apple: The Details | TechCrunch

enzo1 08-28-2012 09:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by krystar (Post 6940194)
this might be the apple killer. now that google's bank is behind motorola mobility

Motorola’s New Patent Lawsuit Against Apple: The Details | TechCrunch

FOSS Patents: Google loses leverage as Motorola Mobility confirms German patent license to Apple edit: Google's bank: how much cash do they have vs Apple's "bank"?

techweenie 08-28-2012 09:47 AM

"Apple killer." ROFLMAO

widebody911 08-28-2012 09:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by techweenie (Post 6940489)
"Apple killer." ROFLMAO

The word "killer" is one of those words that when you see it, you know whatever it is they're talking about is probably junk. Same goes for the word "authentic" - if you have to qualify something as authentic, it's probably not. ie "Authentic Mexican food"

enzo1 08-28-2012 10:02 AM

Apple Jury Foreman: Here's How We Reached a Verdict: Video - Bloomberg

enzo1 08-28-2012 10:10 AM

BBC News - Euro ban for Samsung Galaxy phone

techweenie 08-28-2012 10:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by widebody911 (Post 6940515)
The word "killer" is one of those words that when you see it, you know whatever it is they're talking about is probably junk. Same goes for the word "authentic" - if you have to qualify something as authentic, it's probably not. ie "Authentic Mexican food"

When I was at the West Coast Computer Faire in April '77 and we were introducing the Apple II, the competitors were saying it was a "toy" and doomed and "might make a good video monitor driver" for their serious computers. So I've listened to people predict the demise of Apple from the very beginning. Yes, it came close to happening in '85 and '97. But to predict an Apple failure today? Wow.

krystar 08-28-2012 11:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by enzo1 (Post 6940461)
FOSS Patents: Google loses leverage as Motorola Mobility confirms German patent license to Apple edit: Google's bank: how much cash do they have vs Apple's "bank"?

good article

AAPL's cash balance: 7.945 bil
GOOG's cash balance: 7.974 bil


on par with each other for sure.

techweenie 08-28-2012 11:19 AM

AAPL cash balance is approximately $97 billion.

motion 08-28-2012 11:21 AM

97B, wow. Last I heard it was 85B. I wonder where Apple would rank in the list of countries? Can't wait to see their new spaceship campus.

enzo1 08-28-2012 11:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by techweenie (Post 6940651)
AAPL cash balance is approximately $97 billion.

that was on March 19, 2012....over 100 billion now:)

enzo1 08-28-2012 11:29 AM

One important point about Apple's announcement that it will begin to pay a 2% dividend and spend $10 billion on a share buyback...
The company's cash balance should continue to grow rapidly even while it is using this cash.
Why?
Because Apple is generating a lot more cash each year than it plans to pay out.
Apple generated about $33 billion of cash last year.
Assuming Apple continues to grow rapidly and maintain high profit margins, the way most analysts expect it will, this annual cash flow should increase. A back-of-the-envelope assumption would be cash flow of $40 billion this year, $50 billion next year, and $60 billion the following year, for a total of about $150 billion over three years.

Meanwhile, Apple says its dividend and buyback program will use up to $45 billion of cash over the next three years. This is composed of about $10+ billion a year in dividends and $10 billion in the buyback.
If Apple generates $150 billion of cash and pays out ~$45 billion in dividends and a buyback, its net cash should increase by ~$100 billion over the next three years.
So in three years Apple's cash balance could approach $200 billion, even with the dividend and buyback.
Now, Apple could obviously use some of its cash to make acquisitions or investments. And it could increase its dividend and buyback program. And its margins or growth could stumble.
But the important point is... assuming ongoing growth and no huge acquisitions, Apple's cash balance should continue to grow rapidly, even with the dividends and buyback.

techweenie 08-28-2012 11:52 AM

Some analysts are saying Apple could accumulate that $200 billion in cash by the end of 4Q 2013.

Their cash balance hit $110B in March, but between dividends, $45 billion in (reported) purchases, data center investments and other, less visible changes, I'm seeing reports of a cash balance as low as $27 billion today. Reasonably healthy in any case.

Neilk 08-28-2012 12:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by techweenie (Post 6940718)
Some analysts are saying Apple could accumulate that $200 billion in cash by the end of 4Q 2013.

Their cash balance hit $110B in March, but between dividends, $45 billion in (reported) purchases, data center investments and other, less visible changes, I'm seeing reports of a cash balance as low as $27 billion today. Reasonably healthy in any case.

$45 billion in purchases? Who did they or will they buy for that amount? I haven't seen any big purchases by them.

Are they going to buy Dell, shut it down and return the cash to their shareholders?

techweenie 08-28-2012 12:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Neilk (Post 6940746)
$45 billion in purchases? Who did they or will they buy for that amount? I haven't seen any big purchases by them.

Are they going to buy Dell, shut it down and return the cash to their shareholders?

I haven't seen any purchases over several hundred million this year, so unless they are committing to huge amounts of RAM or LCD displays or other components for stockpiling (as rumored), I have no idea where that cash went. The land they've bought (TX, NC, CA) is only in the millions, AFAIK.

enzo1 08-28-2012 06:54 PM

Apple

pitargue 08-28-2012 08:39 PM

The big story of Apple is to prove to the MBA's of the USA that off shoring is bullcrap. Just check out any box an Apple product comes in: Designed in Cupertino, CA. This means all the developers and marketing people all are in one location. The success of Apple shows that face to face interaction of all departments makes pretty damn good products. Off shoring just cuts (perceived) cost which just fragments the critical thinking due to time zones.

The greatest strength of the US is ideas. Don't see how ideas can get anywhere with time and distance in the way. The hallway conversations can't be quantified on a finance sheet, which the bean counters don't get.

The return on investment of off shoring just means you're just sending your Intellectual Property (IP) off shore, with shady laws to protect that IP. Most executives can't think past one quarter with no regards to long term strategy. Shameful. Of course this lesson will be bypassed in hopes that reduced costs can bring a company on the path of success. (Penny wise, pound foolish.)

And Foxconn is not Apple.

IMHO

slakjaw 08-28-2012 10:03 PM

Does anyone else here think that the publicity over the Samsung vs apple stuff has actually strengthened samsungs brand image?

I don't think apple is going anywhere. Just sayin'

red-beard 08-29-2012 03:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pitargue (Post 6941742)
The big story of Apple is to prove to the MBA's of the USA that off shoring is bullcrap. Just check out any box an Apple product comes in: Designed in Cupertino, CA. This means all the developers and marketing people all are in one location. The success of Apple shows that face to face interaction of all departments makes pretty damn good products. Off shoring just cuts (perceived) cost which just fragments the critical thinking due to time zones.

The greatest strength of the US is ideas. Don't see how ideas can get anywhere with time and distance in the way. The hallway conversations can't be quantified on a finance sheet, which the bean counters don't get.

The return on investment of off shoring just means you're just sending your Intellectual Property (IP) off shore, with shady laws to protect that IP. Most executives can't think past one quarter with no regards to long term strategy. Shameful. Of course this lesson will be bypassed in hopes that reduced costs can bring a company on the path of success. (Penny wise, pound foolish.)

And Foxconn is not Apple.

IMHO

You don't know things work.

The model works this way: You keep enough jobs onshore to minimize profits generated in the high tax location. You build the product elsewhere and keep the profits in the low tax location.

We will never get low tech manufacturing back here. But high tech manufacturing should be here. It isn't because of the very high taxes. We can "onshore" a lot of this manufacuring if we change our taxation model to sales tax and stop taxing all forms of income.

jyl 08-29-2012 04:44 AM

So US tax policy incents companies to keep jobs in the US (on shore)? Interesting.

The tax strategy actually has more to do with transfer pricing. Overseas subsidiary spends $1.00 to build the widget and transfers it to the onshore company at $2.00, the onshore company sells it for $2.50 and spends $0.25 on G&A and R&D, that is $1.00 of profit offshore and $0.25 onshore. If your offshore operations are in a low tax jurisdiction, you have successfully lowered your tax bill.

The number of low tax jurisdictions where major operations can be carried out is, however, shrinking.

red-beard 08-29-2012 05:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jyl (Post 6942076)
So US tax policy incents companies to keep jobs in the US (on shore)? Interesting.

Only to the extent that you use up most of the profits. Look at the Gawker is organized. They keep most profits form sales overseas and only keep enough profit in the US to pay minimal taxes.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jyl (Post 6942076)
The tax strategy actually has more to do with transfer pricing. Overseas subsidiary spends $1.00 to build the widget and transfers it to the onshore company at $2.00, the onshore company sells it for $2.50 and spends $0.25 on G&A and R&D, that is $1.00 of profit offshore and $0.25 onshore. If your offshore operations are in a low tax jurisdiction, you have successfully lowered your tax bill.

Agreed. You have nailed the mechanism. I was "schooled" in this by the plant manager in Romania. Everyone talks about worker pay, etc. The tax situation is much more important. What kills me is these taxes go to another country!

Quote:

Originally Posted by jyl (Post 6942076)
The number of low tax jurisdictions where major operations can be carried out is, however, shrinking.

China doesn't have low taxes, except when they want your business there. Then they put you in a different tier. If I remember correctly, 25% is "standard" but 10% is more normal. It is a country of "men" not laws. You befriend the right people, your tax rate goes down.

Apple has a ton of overseas cash because it does this. If we changed our taxing methods, a lot of this offshoring would go away.

Neilk 08-29-2012 06:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slakjaw (Post 6941827)
Does anyone else here think that the publicity over the Samsung vs apple stuff has actually strengthened samsungs brand image?

I don't think apple is going anywhere. Just sayin'

I am not quite sure how Samsung's image was strengthened. Samsung execs all but admitted copying Apple's features during their "design crisis". I think this picture says it all-

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1346250318.jpg

They revealed themselves as phone copiers, not innovators.

That said, I like their TVs.

krystar 08-29-2012 06:39 AM

yea that picture is wholy misleading. it should read "samsung before android" "samsung after android"

red-beard 08-29-2012 06:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Neilk (Post 6942233)
I am not quite sure how Samsung's image was strengthened. Samsung execs all but admitted copying Apple's features during their "design crisis". I think this picture says it all-

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1346250318.jpg

They revealed themselves as phone copiers, not innovators.

That said, I like their TVs.

To which I say: So what?

Apple copied its interface for the MAC from XEROX. MS copied the Windows GUI from the MAC. It looked similar, but executed differently and had different code.

Look at cars today. Many look similar, but they are very very different. Is looks alone enough for patent infringement?

Palm had a keyboardless device out for many years before the iPhone. And Apple copied the Palm icon filled interface. To which I say again: So What!

JavaBrewer 08-29-2012 08:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Neilk (Post 6942233)
I am not quite sure how Samsung's image was strengthened. Samsung execs all but admitted copying Apple's features during their "design crisis". I think this picture says it all-

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1346250318.jpg

They revealed themselves as phone copiers, not innovators.

That said, I like their TVs.

Samsung makes the hardware - Android provides the OS. What that picture also says (to me) is how Android took a good idea and enhanced it. Notice how the 4 Android phones on the right have a different look and feel. Infinitely customizable to accomodate end user individuality and function. iOS...not so much.

techweenie 08-29-2012 09:33 AM

Back to how high AAPL will go... we have a rumored 9/12 iPhone 5 launch and a rumored Oct. Mini iPad launch. We know there's pent-up demand for both. We know the used gen 1 through 4 iPhones expand the iOS market through secondary sales. We assume the price point could be under $300 for a 7.85" iPad. Both of these factors bode well for iTunes and App Store sales.

This is all good for AAPL.

There's one thing that is not ideal. The recent rumor that the iPhone 5 will not incorporate NFC. That will keep some Android players (and RIM) alive a bit longer.

enzo1 08-29-2012 09:42 AM

iPhone 5: No room for NFC? Well, maybe there is... - NFC World

Ronbo 08-29-2012 09:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by red-beard (Post 6942268)
To which I say: So what?

Apple copied its interface for the MAC from XEROX...

This is not true. Xerox SOLD their GUI, mouse, etc. to Apple. Apple then took the Xerox concept of GUI and significantly changed it for their OS.

I used the Xerox system in the early '80s when I was conducting an audit of a program at PARC. It was truly revolutionary, but Xerox management didn't have a clue and sold it to Apple who did.

red-beard 08-29-2012 09:56 AM

Apple did not BUY the GUI from Xerox.

TW: is this right? You were there about that time

foxpaws 08-29-2012 09:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JavaBrewer (Post 6942438)
Samsung makes the hardware - Android provides the OS. What that picture also says (to me) is how Android took a good idea and enhanced it. Notice how the 4 Android phones on the right have a different look and feel. Infinitely customizable to accomodate end user individuality and function. iOS...not so much.

You need to be introduced to jailbreaking your iPhone...

I have widgets and everything! As 'infinitely customizable' as your android.

http://cdn.iphonehacks.com/wp-conten...8234775878.jpg

Oh, and those Samsung phones on the right are physically almost identical to the iPhone, don't just look at the 'pretty screen'....

techweenie 08-29-2012 10:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by red-beard (Post 6942696)
Apple did not BUY the GUI from Xerox.

TW: is this right? You were there about that time

Thanks for asking. It was after my time with Apple, but the story is well-documented. Apple gave Xerox $1 million in Apple stock (circa 1979/80) for the rights to use aspects of the Xerox PARC-developed interface. So, they licensed the technology. If you want to run the numbers on what $1 million in Apple stock from that era is worth today, the number is staggering.

pitargue 08-29-2012 09:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by red-beard (Post 6942020)
You don't know things work.

The model works this way: You keep enough jobs onshore to minimize profits generated in the high tax location. You build the product elsewhere and keep the profits in the low tax location.

We will never get low tech manufacturing back here. But high tech manufacturing should be here. It isn't because of the very high taxes. We can "onshore" a lot of this manufacuring if we change our taxation model to sales tax and stop taxing all forms of income.

Are you saying that this is how Apple operates?

techweenie 08-29-2012 09:41 PM

Apple did manufacture the Mac in California, initially. Steve wanted to vertically integrate the process code-named "sand" in which raw materials (like sand) would come into the factory and completed products would roll out.

In his conversation with the president over a year ago, he said 'these jobs will never come back to the US' and proceeded to give an example of a production change that needed to be done urgently, and the Chinese supplier was able to get a full staff in overnight to manage the change. He said that could never happen with the US work ethic.

red-beard 08-30-2012 04:01 AM

Do you really think that is true? We have lots of production and assembly jobs here. Not everyone is college material.

jyl 08-30-2012 10:43 AM

But in China, the electronics assembly jobs at Foxconn are the most desirable sort of manufacturing jobs. They attract the cream of the crop of unskilled/less educated but still bright, energetic, ambitious young people from the inland rural areas, who compete to get those jobs. The wages are considered good, compared to what they can make at home. They move into the Foxconn dormitories, work very hard, after four or five years they can save up enough to go back to their villages and start a business or something. It is a genuine career move.

(At least, this is the way it was when I was last at a Foxconn facility, several years ago. Maybe the economics have changed.)

If you moved Foxconn to the US, to make the economics work out even barely, the wages would have to be awful, poverty-level pay - for work that is actually pretty demanding. If you could get anyone to do the work, it would be the dregs of the labor force - to put it bluntly. I don't think that is a moral indictment of the American labor force, just reality. Offer minimum wage for intense, high-concentration, quite exacting assembly work? You'll get people who can't find any other employment - i.e. the dregs. That isn't a recipe for quality products.

biosurfer1 08-30-2012 11:57 AM

[QUOTE=jyl;6945110They move into the Foxconn dormitories, work very hard, after four or five years they can save up enough to go back to their villages and start a business or something. It is a genuine career move.
[/QUOTE]

That is of course, if they don't try to commit suicide while living in those dorms first

Inside Apple's Foxconn Factories: 'Serious and Pressing' Violations - Bloomberg

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/26/business/ieconomy-apples-ipad-and-the-human-costs-for-workers-in-china.html?pagewanted=all

enzo1 08-30-2012 12:03 PM

it is..... China

enzo1 08-30-2012 12:21 PM

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1346358050.jpg
http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1346358068.jpg
http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1346358087.jpg

jyl 08-30-2012 12:40 PM

Life's tough for the average Joe in China. In all respects, not just in electronics assembly factories. Doesn't mean conditions shouldn't be improved, they should, just that they are coming from a different place than we are in now.

Quote:

Originally Posted by biosurfer1 (Post 6945277)


motion 08-30-2012 06:04 PM

I'm not sure what the point of a larger form factor for a phone would be, but I am assuming Apple has a trick on their sleeve on this one. I long for a rounded, thinner, iPad Touch shape. Not a fan of the sharp edges on the iPhone.


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