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-   -   AAPL: How high will it go? (http://forums.pelicanparts.com/off-topic-discussions/698286-aapl-how-high-will-go.html)

coldstart 11-22-2012 10:32 AM

Just to gloat a little, RIM stock is up over 50% since I made my post below in August 2012. It is up another 16.5% today on the Toronto Stock Exchange (I own RIM.TO which is priced in Canadian Pesos). I am up over 40% on the stock overall as I sold most of it on the way up.

My other main stock is Nokia (NOK). I am up over 25% on that too in the past few months.

Buy low, sell high.

My next stock is Best Buy (BBY) currently at 11.57. They had a bad quarter with bad earnings and the stock has dropped to the lowest price since 1998. The market did not factor in Hurricane Sandy and the fact that 15-20% of BB stores were closed. Not to mention that the founder and previous CEO offered $24/share for the company three months ago which was turned down by the board of directors. :eek:

I expect both of: (1) much better earnings next quarter; and (2) the potential buyout at $17-20 before the end of February 2013.


Quote:

Originally Posted by coldstart (Post 6932817)
Apple is a great company that has a lot of hype.

That said, its share price is unlikely to double or significantly increase much more. How many people can buy the same one phone and the same one tablet. Doesn't anyone want to be unique?

Personally, I like beaten down stocks that have the ability to double, triple or even quadruple. In the tech sector, RIM (ticker: RIMM) the maker of Blackberry phones is down almost 95% from its peak. It has six new phones, a new operating system (BB10) and a new set of enterprise servers all coming out around January 2013. For under $7 per share, it is a steal with a market cap of around $4 billion.

RIM has:
(1) NO debt;
(2) has $2.2 billion in cash reserves!
(3) owns $2.5 billion in patents;
(4) 78 million BB users;
(5) owns its buildings/real estate; and
(6) a great enterprise server business.

Plus the stock market guru, the Warren Buffet of Canada, just bought a huge chunk of the company (10%, averaging down). I think it is a better buy than Apple even though the media is harsh on anything RIM.

It may just be that I am Canadian and everyone here is a Crackberry addict.....


Reg 11-22-2012 05:52 PM

I got in a few months ago and have been wavering on buying more as it climbs. Finally did, early this morning, just before another spike!:D

Coldstart - What do you think RIM will be at in 6mos and where do you think AAPL will be?

coldstart 11-23-2012 06:35 AM

I have absolutely no idea where RIM will be in six months. All I know is that I won't be holding a lot of their stock as BB10 failure is a significant probability. It also could be a huge success and the stock could hit $25/share but I'm not a believer.

I think Apple is the new RIM of 2009-- recycling old software and ideas and generally not keeping up with the competition. What was the biggest advance for Apple this year:

1. Shrinking the iPad to 2/3 size and calling it a cutesy Mini Pad; or

2. Adding 1/2" to the screen of the iPhone and adding LTE; or

3. Allowing fewer people into the Apple store at a time to increase the size of the line outside.

Apple hasn't 'innovated' anything new in the past few years and have become a company of marketers. I also don't like the lighter iPhone as it feels cheap, delicate and insignficant. There is nothing new due out of Apple for almost a full year and they are falling behind the competition.

I think that Samsung has crushed Apple in the hardware department. The new S3 and Note 2 are amazing phones with every advantage out there. They are cheaper and better. The only problem with Android phones is software security as they can be prone to malware and Google likes to harvest your information. I am in a information-sensitive industry otherwise I would buy one.

I think the currentl Apple iPhone and iPads are going to age quickly and poorly. The public should figure this out at some point and sales could be reduced significantly. For example, in Toronto several retailers (Starbucks, etc.) are now accepting NFC payments from smart phones that have the technology (Android and Blackberry). Why does the phone that costs twice as much not have that useful feature? As an iPhone user, it is sad that the Android user behind me in line at a coffee shop can place his order and pay for it before me without even getting to the counter.

Disclosure: I own an iPhone 4, a BB Playbook, an HP computer, a MacBook Pro, NOK stock, RIM stock and BBY stock. I regularly also use an iPad3 and a S2 phone.

imcarthur 11-23-2012 07:28 AM

Best Buy? I guess I am too close to the fickleness of the CE market to ever consider investing in a national retailer. Too many have already hit me in my wallet - on both sides of the border. The scuttlebutt says their Magnolias are struggling - except for the Design Center locations.

Related: Globe Investor: RIM rally: Maybe Apple is playing a role here

Ian

onewhippedpuppy 11-23-2012 08:11 AM

Am I the only one that really doesn't like the idea of paying via NFC? A phone containing credit card information seems to be just screaming to be hacked or otherwise compromised. What happens if you lose your phone?

enzo1 11-27-2012 07:57 AM

Enterprises buying iPhones 'in droves': Here's the tipping point | ZDNet

enzo1 11-27-2012 08:06 AM

UPDATE 3-Ericsson sues Samsung for patent infringement | Reuters

enzo1 11-27-2012 08:27 AM

New Imacs go on sale Friday and will begin shipping sometime in December...

enzo1 11-27-2012 09:03 AM

Apple Regains U.S. Smartphone Lead With iPhone 5 - Tech Trader Daily - Barrons.com

imcarthur 11-30-2012 06:00 AM

"Apple Inc's latest iPhone has received final clearance from Chinese regulators, paving the way for a December debut in a highly competitive market where the lack of a new model had severely eroded its share of product sales. China is Apple's second-largest market and its Chinese fans are eagerly awaiting the latest model of its smartphone, the iPhone 5, which was released in the United States in September." Reuters

Ian

widgeon13 11-30-2012 06:03 AM

This should be a big qtr.

techweenie 11-30-2012 11:04 AM

Interesting to hear the new CEO of Yahoo say they are dumping Blackberrys in favor of "smartphones." She's been saying some weird stuff lately, but that riled up the RIM crowd.

McLovin 12-05-2012 11:10 AM

It had gone up, but it's taking a big hit again today, and is back under $550 today.

Some thoughts on AAPL

AAPL: Death Cross? March Disappointment? Piper Rebuts Stock Drop - Tech Trader Daily - Barrons.com

McLovin 12-05-2012 11:13 AM

I don't know if I should buy some more at less than $550 or just sit it out.

widgeon13 12-13-2012 04:51 AM

So what is the general consensus after the last week of gyrations? Lots of negative thoughts from the analysts and what the hell would Apple do in TV's that would be really NEW?

imcarthur 12-13-2012 06:01 AM

Take your pick of reasons: Fiscal cliff jitters. Year-end tax avoidance selling. Cracks in the post-Jobs Apple wall. Profit taking by the big traders.

Best to wait it out at this point & hope for a rosier 2013. At least MCD is crawling back.

Ian

red-beard 12-13-2012 06:20 AM

Ian - I think most people are "resetting" the value, taking the profit before the taxes go up. I know I did.

imcarthur 12-13-2012 06:26 AM

Agreed for US investors but in the ROW . . . thankfully, I only own a pittance.

Ian

McLovin 12-13-2012 03:09 PM

I think I'll buy another 20 shares tomorrow, based on afterhours trading today it looks like it will be a little under $530.

That'll drive down my average cost to $540 on 40 shares.

biosurfer1 12-13-2012 03:11 PM

McLovin...what kind of holding time frame are you looking at?

McLovin 12-13-2012 03:29 PM

Indefinite. I could hold it forever if I had to/wanted to.

McLovin 12-13-2012 03:31 PM

I'm kicking myself for not buying Facebook when it was at 19 a few weeks ago. I had seen Trump on TV and he was talking about how he had just bought at $19.

I think ultimately Facebook will not make it, but I think it will be around for quite a while, and the stock will go up.

I was close to buying $20K at $19 . . . but I chickened out doubly by (1) only doing half that amount (2) of AAPL instead.

motion 12-13-2012 03:36 PM

Yeah, I think FB will go the way of Myspace, eventually. There will always be something new in this category, and people have a lot to hate about FB. I missed the 19 a share price while transferring $$$ into my trading account, but still got in at 23. If it gets any higher, I'm going to take my earnings out.

I think my average AAPL share price is something like $675 :(

McLovin 12-13-2012 03:40 PM

I would have loved to put in $20K at 19, and taken out $30K today.

I'd be at the dealer buying my Triumph Thruxton if I had done that! :)

motion 12-13-2012 03:43 PM

Don't forget to factor in short term gains to the IRS! :D

McLovin 12-13-2012 03:50 PM

I'd have to sell the two fiddy to pay them.

Reg 12-13-2012 07:02 PM

RIMM is continuing to rise from the ashes!:)

KFC911 12-14-2012 06:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KC911 (Post 6938506)
Oh, I don't disagree with either of ya...RIMM has been "beaten down" like ...

I still like the odds of RIMM hitting 14 before AAPL reaches 1350....but I'm not holding either. I hope everyone on this thread makes a bundle on both.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reg (Post 7148435)
RIMM is continuing to rise from the ashes!:)

I saw RIMM go above $14 this morning, and remembered this thread :). Didn't think it would happen so fast though...good for you Reg!!!

McLovin 12-14-2012 07:33 AM

Wow on RIMM. Stock has doubled in the last few months.

You can thank me for that (it's because I didn't buy it).

AAPL now down to $513 today.

Seriously, let's flip the title of this thread. How low will it go?!? $490? $450? $400?

McLovin 12-14-2012 11:12 AM

Hearing no objections, I just bought another 10 shares at $510.

KFC911 12-14-2012 07:59 PM

McLovin, you're a sharp guy, just curious as to what your exit strategy is if you don't mind me asking? Full disclosure...I began to slowly exit my APPL position around this point some time back (on the way up). I would have kept a small chunk indefinitely (all house money), but an unexpected land purchase triggered my last sell off a few months back. I hope I'm wrong (for everyone else's sake), but imo, the "ride" is over and APPL will fluctuate around these levels for a while. This market cap just seems more reasonable to me and even though Apple is a great company, it's just to "pricey" for me and my strategy.

McLovin 12-14-2012 08:21 PM

Thanks for the compliment, I do think that I'm pretty good at a lot of things.

But I suck at the stock market.

I got out of the stock market completely a few years ago, other than some MLPs which I continue to hold (Kinder Morgan, Enterprise Energy Partners, and a couple of others). Those MLPs, by the way, have been great. I've held them since around 2006, and get double digit dividends every single year, and the "stock" price has basically doubled, too.

Anyways, as to why I bought, I've always been tempted by AAPL, including when it was being discussed here when it was at $90! I thought at the time it might go to $60, so I held off. Of course, then it took off. (Did I mention I suck at the stock market?).

So, my only strategy here is that AAPL is way off its peak, and maybe it'll get back towards that peak. Also, it feels pretty safe at around $500-$550. Even if it goes down to $450, that's not a huge loss.

Also, long term, it does seem like Apple is here to stay, so the downside feels relatively limited.

Also, the amts I bought are not relatively much to me. So some is for fun, although losing money isn't much fun!

And, motion bought at $675, so how wrong can I go at $510-$550??? Even if the stock goes to $400, I'm still doing better than motion, and not many people can say that, so that's worth something. :)

That's pretty much the extent of my thinking!

KFC911 12-15-2012 05:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by McLovin (Post 7150486)
...I got out of the stock market completely a few years ago, other than some MLPs which I continue to hold (Kinder Morgan, Enterprise Energy Partners, and a couple of others). Those MLPs, by the way, have been great. I've held them since around 2006, and get double digit dividends every single year, and the "stock" price has basically doubled, too....

so how wrong can I go at $510-$550??? Even if the stock goes to $400, I'm still doing better than motion, and not many people can say that, so that's worth something. :)

That's pretty much the extent of my thinking!

Thanks for sharing! You won't go wrong owning solid companies imo...I too have had MLPs in my mix for years (pared down to only KMP now) and those along with a couple of REITs and other solid dividend payers are primarily my strategy now. While it's nice to "gloat" about the homeruns (what strikeouts??? :D), I just want a solid income stream at this point (slightly above 5%), and the stock price increases are a bonus at this point for me. Good luck all!

McLovin 12-15-2012 07:14 PM

I think Buckeye ( Welcome to Buckeye Partners, L.P. ) is a good MLP buy right now. It's in the low 40s or so. It's been as high as 71. If I were looking to invest cash not held in a retirement account, I'd buy that right now (AAPL is being bought in a SEP IRA).

The current dividend at the current price is right under 9%.

The one (and only) think that concerns me about MLPs is - our own government. In its never ending quest to raise taxes, the current tax treatment of MLPs and how they pay dividends, etc. seems to me to be a possible target.

If the tax treatment of MLPs is changed, or that thought is even floated, the share price will take a hit.

I wasn't so worried about it in 2006, but (1) at that time MLPs were more "under the radar" and (2) it seems our political and economic philosophy has, umm "shifted" somewhat since then.

techweenie 12-19-2012 10:14 AM

Well Donald Trump came out today with this Tweet: "This is a buyers’ market. Buy now. You will thank me in 3 years."

And to think, only 6 weeks ago, it was 'a looming disaster.'

I remain bullish on AAPL for a solid gain over the next 12 months. Short term, I think the 4th (calendar) quarter results will be underwhelming. In the medium term, they'll be 'saved by their ecosystem.' In the long term, they'll continue to grow their share of the laptop market, especially. And the iPad will continue to dominate. Rumors of Apple TVs in testing are nice, but don't expect product for 5-6 months...

McLovin 12-19-2012 12:24 PM

I think Trump is right. I'm not worried about my AAPL bought at $550 and $510.

It's at $530 right now, if it goes down to $500 or less, I'll probably buy a little more.

I'm only holding 30 shares, so it's not that big of a deal on the upside or downside.

I do think AAPL has some big issues moving forward. The biggest problem I see is the need to continually innovate. That is difficult, and may or may not happen. They introduce something like the iPhone or iPad, but then others basically come out with the same thing, at a much less cost.

I think someone wrote about that, the "good enough" theory. Which to me has a lot of validity. For example, I bought my wife a Google Nexus 7 for Christmas, instead of an iPad mini.

Why? Because it's $199, and it's "good enough." It has a screen and resolution that is as good or better than iPad, and all she'll ever use it for is as a reader, checking email, and occasionally surfing the web.

For her use, it functions exactly the same as an iPad, for roughly half the cost.

I think that's a problem for Apple.

The only way to get around it is to come out with the "next great thing," but that's not easy to do year after year. As an example of that, just look at the iPhone 5.

red-beard 12-19-2012 02:53 PM

"Good Enough" ? The Nexus 7 is a very nice tablet!

CROWSC 12-19-2012 03:32 PM

In my opinion, it is all about the Logo. Apple's logo is a status symbol and Americans love their status symbols, such as Mercedes, Porsche, BMW, Harley Davidson etc.. Apple is right up there with the big dogs. You don't see people driving around with Dell stickers in the windows of their cars. Apple did the right thing years and years ago, when they donated computers to the schools and the kids got hands on experience on how to use them Now those kids have grown up and guess what they are hooked on Apple products. What a bunch of marketing genius's. They are far from being done. Keep your eyes open for 3D television without glasses that really works, without hurting your eyes, or giving you a headache.

McLovin 12-19-2012 03:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by red-beard (Post 7160082)
"Good Enough" ? The Nexus 7 is a very nice tablet!

I agree! I've been working with it, setting it up, etc. so when she pulls it out of the box on Xmas it's ready to go. I like it a lot, and for $199 I like it even more.

biosurfer1 12-20-2012 08:52 PM

Another big day for RIMM, but it will be ugly tomorrow


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