Wow. Cayenne sales in tank . . . already.

[CarreraS2]

Was totally predictable to me (and in fact was predicted by me), since it is a vehicle that makes absolutely no sense, but Cayenne sales are already in the tank.

The first quarter 2005 sales figures are out. Cayenne is down a whopping 25% from the first quarter 2004.

That is a scary number. Normally, sales a new car gradually increase each year for the first 4-5 years, then taper off as the market anticipates it's replacement coming out.

For the Cayenne to take this big of a hit, this early, spells certain disaster for Porsche. There simply is NOTHING they can do to increase sales. They have already reached into the well to do the one thing they could do- make a cheaper model to tap the "poseur" market. They did that with the VW Golf engined 6 cylinder version. The "newness" and novelty of it has gone (Don't underestimate the force of that. Some people will buy anything to be the "first on the block." But the won't follow up by buying it again). There is, IMO, NOTHING Porsche can do to significantly increase sales. And, they will NEVER come close to the sales figures they projected and need to have for it.

This is a good example of corporate greed resulting in a very bad outcome. Normally, I would say that "corporate greed" is a concept that doesn't really exist - corporations should try to increase their value. But in this case, it was greed IMO.

You hear the absolutely silly argument "Porsche needed to make the Cayenne to stay independent." As I said here when the Cayenne first came out, if anything, the Cayenne will cause Porsche to LOSE it's independent status. Here's the irony. Porsche didn't need the Cayenne to save it from financial ruin. IT WAS THE MOST PROFITABLE CAR COMPANY ON THE PLANET! In fact, it's extreme profitability lead to the bizarre decision to make the Cayenne, IMO. Porsche had huge cash reserves. The proverbial "money burning the hole in your pocket." It paid for a lot of the Cayenne start up costs with cold, hard cash.

I think Porsche say what GM, etc. was doing in ripping off the public selling low budget pickup trucks with shells welded on them and some leather thrown in (i.e., the "luxury SUV") at HUGE profits. Although Porsche was doing spectacularly well, it just had to try to get in that SUV profit feeding-frenzy.

Problem is, however, Porsche underestimated the fickleness of the American consumer, and how long the SUV fad had been going. They were 10 years too late to the SUV profit party.

Add to that the Cayenne is a weak, unimaginative, anonymous, boring looking vehicle. Add to that the fact that they helped make their own competition, which is better than their vehicle (a V8 Toureg is better than the V6 Golf-engined Cayenne, for the same price), and disaster is guaranteed.

When it came out, Porsche execs said at the Porsche Parade that "The future of the company depends on the success of the Cayenne." I sure hope he was just trying to twist some arms to buy the thing. Because if that is true, the company is toast.

(BTW, sales of the Boxster and 997 are doing very well, as will be the sales of the Caymen).

[AFJuvat]

I'm not really surprised.

There has been nothing but problems with them thus far. I think they are nice, but they definately didn't get all of the bugs worked out.

Much like the 928, the early cayennes are plagued with electrical problems. By the end of the Cayenne's life, it will truly be an outstanding car, again, like the 928

I do agree that Porsche was very late in getting into the SUV game. Especially with gas prices so high here in the US. I also think it was a HUGE mistake not to enter the cayenne in teh Paris - Dakkar rally, which would have lent more credibility to the platform.

In any case, I don't think it would spell ruin for Porsche, They Cayenne body is manufactured in czech republic by VW, the Porsche engines are made in stuttgart, the cayenne is assembled in Leipzig. If the bottom were to really fall out on the Cayenne, they can always sell their rights to VW, cut production, and retool Leipzig - perhaps for the Panamera or the Cayman.

They could also divert the production away from Uusikaupunki, Finland and bring it back to Germany. Which would be similar to what Porsche did with the 944 - the later ones were made in Stuttgart after they streamlined production and pulled out of Nekarsulm.

Also, with the advent of the Cayman, and reportedly a cayman convertable sometime around 2007, I think we will see the end of the Boxster soon after that.

AFJuvat

[BlueSkyJaunte]

Don't worry, Porsche has a Plan:

(three thumbs down) Hybrid Hysteria. There may be hope for Porsche yet. Jens Meiners, reporting in this week's Automotive News, says that Porsche executives are more than a little concerned that a Cayenne SUV hybrid would violate Porsche's purist approach to engineering (as if a Porsche "SUV" didn't already accomplish that). As Meiners reported, "The thought of a driver only hearing the faint noise of an electric engine or the prospect of simulating an engine sound through speakers while the vehicle is being driven, horrifies Porsche engineers." It horrifies us too. Thank goodness there's at least one car company out there with the cojones to realize and state publicly the ugly High-Octane Truth about hybrids (which we at AE have stated from the beginning) - that, at the end of the day, there's no "there" there. Hybrids are an interesting transitional solution to this country's long-term goal of energy independence. But hybrid technology is only one approach, and there are other ways to go about delivering excellent fuel economy - new, cleaner, more fuel-efficient and less costly diesels, for instance. The frantic frenzy surrounding hybrids, fueled by some lesser lights in the media who fanned the flames of hysteria early on, has caused an inordinate amount of attention to be paid to the high points of hybrids (excellent mileage in stop-and-go driving, official Mr. Green Jeans political correctness status), without enough attention being paid to the downside of hybrids (unable to deliver the EPA fuel mileage estimates promised and touted, high initial costs with no chance of recovering those costs over the life of a typical three-year ownership, long-term costs such as battery replacement, the need for aftermarket warranties to protect the used hybrid buyer from the frightfully expensive systems when they need replacing, and finally, the ultimate negative impact to the environment that comes with battery disposal). But the most annoying thing about hybrids to us is that they're transportation "appliances" that intentionally remove the experience of driving from the act of driving itself - which is exactly what Porsche engineers are getting at. There is no fundamental emotion associated with driving hybrids - other than the fact that you can smugly show your neighbors that you're saving the planet (even though you don't want to "go there" when you have to think about all of the negatives associated with hybrids once you get bored and move on to what's "next" - let the used car buyer worry about all of that bad stuff, right?). We've said in the past that the day a car company unleashes a genuine high-performance hybrid to the market will be the day that hybrids will finally gain acceptance by a wider audience - especially with the enthusiast community. But we're not so sure about that now. We believe that a burgeoning dichotomy is brewing in the market, with the anti-car intelligentsia on one side - the owners who blindly embrace the hybrid mania, no matter what the extra costs or long-term damage to the environment may be - and the people who still believe the automobile is an emotional, involving conveyance that will always be much, much more than just a transportation "device" on the other. It may just be that in the future, companies that build true, high-performance machines will choose to continue building and developing the internal combustion motor, while celebrating driving in its purest form, leaving the hybrid hysteria to the mass producers. We can only hope. And we also hope Porsche realizes that having a hybrid Cayenne in California (which Meiners mentioned they're discussing), just to appease a group of buyers who will never be appeased (short of having a car company pay them to drive their cars) isn't essential to their future as a car company. Hybrids indeed have their place, but they're only a small part of a larger solution and a bigger picture. And the more people realize that - dispensing with the needless hysteria - the better off we'll all be.

[island911]

ya blew it, blue!

by passing that along here, you have just "Contributed to the Porsche community."

Thanks for the slip-up.

btw, I've had the "going no where" stance on hybrids since 1993, when I worked on a SAE competition hybrid car. (simple physics--too much entropy)

But hey, maybe Porsche can be 10 years late to that fad too, as Socal has elequently pointed out.

[techweenie]

Hybridizing a 5,000 lb vehicle is oxymoronic.

[island911]

Originally posted by techweenie
Hybridizing a 5,000 lb vehicle is oxymoronic.

why's that?

. .. aren't all those hybrid inefficiencies scaleable?

[pwd72s]

Originally posted by island911
why's that?

. .. aren't all those hybrid inefficiencies scaleable?

Sure hey are...hey, how about a hybrid supertanker capable of 35 knots?

[id10t]

Or how about producing a small coupe again (think 356) with a combination of efficient gas engine (my '65 C coupe gets 30 mpg on the highway) and electrical?

[techweenie]

Well, I should have been more specific. The context was consumer vehicles, and 5,000 lb SUVs and pickups do not attract the crowd that buys ULEVs. It's oxymoronic because those folks see the notion of creating a huge, heavy vehicle to (usually) transport one person as wasteful.

The car companies recognize this, since they are only hybridizing thier compact SUVs and smallest cars at the moment.

Hydrogen and electric power scale up quite nicely in combination with IC engines, and will probably have lots of market success in larger commercial vehicles.Hybrid buses area slam dunk, for instance.

[widebody911]

Originally posted by id10t
Or how about producing a small coupe again (think 356) with a combination of efficient gas engine (my '65 C coupe gets 30 mpg on the highway) and electrical?

Maybe it's time for a reprise of the microcar, ie Trojan, Isetta, Messerscmidt...

OTOH, I think a BMW Isetta would just get caught in the treads of an Ford Excretion...

[island911]

Originally posted by pwd72s
Sure hey are...hey, how about a hybrid supertanker capable of 35 knots?

good one, pwd.

It is funny, how people forget that diesel-electrics have been around for ever.

Regenerative braking is the only twist that gives hybrids a second glance.


Techwee, good point. Though I thought that the whole idea of a hybrid was to have a clear conscious . . . that you're being more 'green' that the other guy . .. that you get to drive whatever type of planet polluting/massive heavy-metal battery lugging device you want ... as long as it means well. . . .and has that green cliche HYBRID logo on the back.

Okay, lets say you are right about the "size" thing. What are the greeners going to do when they reallize that their hydrogen hybrid need to be huge (to handle the hydrogen w/o massive inefficient compression equipment) ?

[Eric 951]

Originally posted by island911
:

Techwee, good point. Though I thought that the whole idea of a hybrid was to have a clear conscious . . . that you're being more 'green' that the other guy . .. that you get to drive whatever type of planet polluting/massive heavy-metal battery lugging device you want ... as long as it means well. . . .and has that green cliche HYBRID logo on the back.

Island--you just gave me an idea. Have vinyl "hybrid" decals printed up, and put one on the tailgate of my Jeep and one on my truck (right under the "Powerstroke" emblem).

[techweenie]

Ah. A new category has been created: "Environmentalist Poseurs."

I think every Hummer H2 owner would want one of those decals!

[island911]

LOL, Eric. - I want one!

yeah, that is what makes these people happy.

[greener]"True efficencies"!? who cares. "Hybrid" is our saviour. . . .the hope for our future. If you have a 'hybrid" label you have done your part to encourage those big evil car mfgs to create more earth-friendly vehicles. . .even if they're not even close, to being efficient, right now. (ssshhhh, dont tell anyone)

Peace-out.

oh hey, do any of you know where I can score some lumber? . . . I need to build a platform and shelter for a tree sit-in. (damn loggers. . .what do we need wood for anyway?)[/greener]

[BlueSkyJaunte]

Originally posted by techweenie
Hybrid buses area slam dunk, for instance.

Yes and no.

(GM) convinced King County, Washington, that its GM Allison New Flyer buses could increase fuel efficiency up to 40 percent over conventional diesels. The county purchased 235 buses at $645,000 each, a $200,000 premium per vehicle over their existing fleet, only to realize that the New Flyers don't get better mileage.

http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/13.04/hybrid.html?pg=3&topic=hybrid&topic_set=

[techweenie]

Originally posted by BlueSkyJaunte
Yes and no.

http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/13.04/hybrid.html?pg=3&topic=hybrid&topic_set=

Oh, well, now you bring logic into it.

Not fair.

I've seen reports that no nuclear power plant has ever produced more energy than that which was expended constructing it. But, hey, there are lies, damn lies, statistics and public policy.

[tabs]

Ohhh welll....all is well in America.....

[silver912e]

Seems to me if Porsche updated the 356 the way the Beetle and Mini were updated they would probably sell a Bazillion of them. Of course they would end up being water-cooled front engined cars that lacked the soul of a real 356, but I still think it would be a very successful product

[BlueSkyJaunte]

Originally posted by silver912e
Seems to me if Porsche updated the 356 the way the Beetle and Mini were updated they would probably sell a Bazillion of them. Of course they would end up being water-cooled front engined cars that lacked the soul of a real 356, but I still think it would be a very successful product

They could even do a rear-engined version with a Subie 4 in it.

I'd buy one...

[scottmandue]

Originally posted by SoCal911SC
Was totally predictable to me (and in fact was predicted by me), since it is a vehicle that makes absolutely no sense, but Cayenne sales are already in the tank.

I am a avowed SUV hater and though the Cayenne was a bad move idealistically for Porsche however...
How many people buy SUV's for the bling factor (Escalade, Hummer, etc.) and how many people buy Porsche's as poseurs?
so you put the two together and bingo... or not.

Personaly I think they should have pursued the 928 reissue although it may have competed with the 911 turbo as a supercar.

I also think the four door Porsche sedan is a bad idea but what do I know.

Interesting how manyof us feel Porsche shoud take a step back to a simpler less expensive sports car rather than push the envelope in the opposite direction.