Investing - Basic Questions for 2015

[Cajundaddy]

Originally Posted by lukeh

Okay, 5 years isn't enough...I can see that. What if I gave you the symbols of funds that beat the S & P over the past 20 years, 40 years, 60 years or even 80 years (and I can)? Then why would you take the index over those managed funds?

Lots of studies have been done on this and long term (10 yrs or more), the number of managed funds that beat the market index is approaching zero. Choosing the winners is the hard part because if .01% of managed funds will beat the market over the next 10 years, 99.99% will not. Which funds will those be exactly? Almost certainly not the ones who beat the market in the last 10 years. The odds in favor of index funds is better than Vegas.

Past performance is no guarantee of future returns and this is the part you are missing in your observations. You assume a guaranteed future return that will beat the index and that is vanishingly rare. If index funds don't have the highest returns over the next ten years they will almost certainly be in the top 95% compared with all managed funds with a similar but actively traded mix. They carry very low risk. Risk is not zero but it is very low over a 10 year window when compared to actively traded funds in a similar sector.

Almost no one can beat the market - MarketWatch

[tabs]

Originally Posted by Dantilla

I like real estate, for the same reasons you like cars-

I control the value. It is tangable, whereas stock values are determined to a great extent by the emotions of "the market", where prices can fluctuate greatly on a whim.

Real estate always has intrinsic value. It will never be mis-managed to the point where it becomes worthless like a penny stock, or lose all value through a bankruptcy, as occasionally happens with stocks.

Like cars, in real estate you make money when you buy, not when you sell. I've yet to loose money on a fixer-upper, but I understand the difficulties of the current market- I quit buying fixer-uppers when the housing market got too hot, as there were no bargains to be purchased. Now that the bubble has burst, and the "masses" are fleeing real estate, it's time to find bargains once again. Good money to be made right now in single-family real estate.

There is so much wrong with this ^^^, where does one begin?

Prices at the beginning of 2012 were getting below the cost of replacement. In other words you could not build it for what it was selling for. Then the FED stepped in and started buying $45B USD in Mortgage backed securities EVERY MONTH, which put a floor underneath RE which caused it to rebound to the level that we currently see. Do you think that this is a REAL market?

The problem with RE is that it is an illiquid investment, where the bottom can drop right out...This has happened in 1980, 1990 and again in 2008. This time it is three strikes and you are out. As no matter what the Central Banks concoct with regards to Monetary Policy they have not been able to resuscitate a moribund economy. Both the EU and Japan are in deep deep trouble, Japan after a 1 qtr rebound has once again slipped back into recession and it is the same for the EU which is on the verge.

The question that I have to ask is, have you been doing this for over 40 years? If you have then you will have known when RE was not an investment but an overhead expense as a place to live. (Rental Property is a different animal as it creates cash flow and as such can be considered to be an investment). Otherwise you have only seen RE in an aberrational period of inflation, which was the goal of monetary policy. Now that monetary policy has failed, and deflation is occurring all around us as America is tapped out.

Going even further back in time to the Great Depression, RE prices collapsed. I am sorry but we control NOTHING, not even when we have to take a dump...

[sc_rufctr]

.............. SO what would you invest in Tabs?

[onewhippedpuppy]

Tabs is an enigma wrapped in a mystery, he's not going to tell you that!

I would say that his feedback is very location dependent. For Vegas, home of the illustrious Tabby, it's likely true. For more stagnant markets, like Wichita, it couldn't be further from the truth. Our market chugs along at about 3% yearly appreciation, even in the down years. Sales were slow in the 2008-2010 timeframe when there were a lot of local layoffs, but genuinely nice homes were still selling. There's very little to be made here in the form of appreciation, but for someone inclined to invest sweat equity in a fixer-upper there is real money to be made. Like most communities, we have a number of very nice established neighborhoods with 1960s era homes, many of which have been minimally updated. Houses in these areas that have been remodeled sell quickly. For someone willing and able to undertake a cosmetic remodel, it's a great opportunity.

[recycled sixtie]

Asphalt Gambler said in the last point $10k and down. No way would you want to risk real
estate with that little amount down and huge leverage. Interest in $$$ borrowed would be too great even though it is deductible.

I have no idea how old AG is but buy and hold of a mutual fund or etf would work if he has patience and the mentality not to panic and sell when the investment is down.

There is no magic bullet in investing. Just that investments have different qualities.
Guy

[wdfifteen]

Originally Posted by lukeh

Okay, 5 years isn't enough...I can see that. What if I gave you the symbols of funds that beat the S & P over the past 20 years, 40 years, 60 years or even 80 years (and I can)? Then why would you take the index over those managed funds?

I get the entire fee thing but we are talking rates of return after fees. If over 40 years managed fund XYZ after fees has beat the index why does it make more sense to invest new money in the index?

Maybe I'm not seeing it but if for 30 years car A has been going around the track faster than car B why would I bet money on car B? It seems like it would be a mistake to bet on the car that has a worse historical track record.

If you have a 20, or 40, or 60 year horizon it's not a bad bet to chose a fund that has done well over that time period for some of your portfolio. I'm going to retire in 5 years and even I have still have a small amount left in an aggressive managed fund (it won't be there for long). I didn't see where the OP has that long to wait.

[wdfifteen]

Originally Posted by paulgtr

since it's only part of my inventory, life insurance isn't the sole focus, nor does it generate much of my income.
it does work well if properly designed to fit into a portfolio. not sure if folks have seen a max over funded policy that is paid up in 7 years. after that it is pure profit for the policy holder. put it where you normally put your muni bonds.
I can't speak for any one but myself, but I take my time with clients to understand their objectives and find the best model to achieve their goals.
if I have put them on the right path and they do well, isn't that what is important?

This is a very different tune that you played in post #4. You came right out of the box recommending life insurance and even listed companies to buy from.

Originally Posted by paulgtr

not sure if folks have seen a max over funded policy that is paid up in 7 years. after that it is pure profit for the policy holder. put it where you normally put your muni bonds.

I haven't seen one, no. My understanding is that you essential spend 7 years paying for life insurance, and then your money starts looking like an investment.
I a man doesn't need or want life insurance, why would he do that?

[chkvku]

What kind of return are you targeting and how much risk are you willing to take?

[asphaltgambler]

Hi all, thanks for the responses. More back story...................I'm 55 and pretty much lost everything of any value by 2010. Largely because my past 'lucrative' career as a BMW / Porsche tech at one the best and largest indi shops fell apart literally in a matter on months.......................months

Since 2008.............. I've invested easily over $50K real cash in changing my career, much non-automotive training, sustaining / subsidizing a new minimalistic way of living. It did finally pay off when I went from part-time (2yrs) in government IT , then full time in June of this past year now in Vehicle Services for THE wealthiest county in Virginia.

Now we have very little debt, I just just interviewed for the next level position that is 2 pay grades higher and fully expect to get that (as I'm told by my supervisor) by end of this month. My wife has a solid career in the health-care field. So we are now on the right track career-wise.

We have some money left, I started a 401, now looking to continue my success with something(s) different. I do some auto / classic car - motorcycle consulting (buying, pricing, repairing) but it is sporadic and sometimes requires more time than money returned to make it worthwhile.

So I would summarize that: I'm looking for something that is more unconventional, low risk, short turn around but has consistency.

[MBAtarga]

Originally Posted by zxfdhxzfhfh

What kind of return are you targeting and how much risk are you willing to take?

Originally Posted by chkvku

What kind of return are you targeting and how much risk are you willing to take?

Both users reported as posting spam - imbedded links

[Z-man]

Tabs has some good insight into the RE market. Flipping houses short term involves greater risk than a long-term home project does. But even with the instability in the housing market, there are still investment opportunities to be had - lots of folks still want to live in homes.

Originally Posted by asphaltgambler

So I would summarize that: I'm looking for something that is more unconventional, low risk, short turn around but has consistency.

Pick two of the above...

-Z

[VincentVega]

Pick two of the above...

Good one.

I'm looking for something that is more unconventional, low risk, short turn around but has consistency.

I hope I dont come across as an ass... but everyone is looking for that. It doesnt exist in a repeatable manor. If you do find it, dont drop it because odds are you wont find it again.

Instead of looking for the unicorn, think about taking some of the ETF/mutual fund advice in this thread. There are so many good options to suit your risk tolerance. Check out vgstx for a balanced fund that has averaged ~10% since 1985. No home runs but consistent perf.

[wdfifteen]

Originally Posted by asphaltgambler

Now we have very little debt, I just just interviewed for the next level position that is 2 pay grades higher and fully expect to get that (as I'm told by my supervisor) by end of this month. My wife has a solid career in the health-care field. So we are now on the right track career-wise.

We have some money left, I started a 401, now looking to continue my success with something(s) different. I do some auto / classic car - motorcycle consulting (buying, pricing, repairing) but it is sporadic and sometimes requires more time than money returned to make it worthwhile.

So I would summarize that: I'm looking for something that is more unconventional, low risk, short turn around but has consistency.

Good info. It's very necessary to know these kinds of things before giving any advice.

"unconventional, low risk" are mutually exclusive. If it's unconventional it's risky (hasn't been tested) and if it's low risk it's conventional enough and been done enough to know it's low risk.

You have about a 10 year time horizon in which to work before you retire, so you can't weather a lot of volatility. In your situation I would look at what the 401K is invested in and make sure over all you have balanced investments in no-load large cap, mid cap, and index mutual funds. Keep enough $$ in at least one very consistent, low transaction fee fund for a "working" fund. It will earn for you hands-off until you find a car to flip or some other way to use your skills to make some big, quick money. Cash out the fund for $$ to make the deal with, flip the car or whatever and get the money back into your "working" fund. In some sense that overall strategy IS a bit unconventional.
You've got a lot going for you. The main thing you're short on is time, but you can make up for some of that with clever application of your skills when there is a chance to really cash in on them.

[asphaltgambler]

All good and diverse responses, thanks!

[aschen]

Originally Posted by VincentVega

Good one.



I hope I dont come across as an ass... but everyone is looking for that. It doesnt exist in a repeatable manor. If you do find it, dont drop it because odds are you wont find it again.

Instead of looking for the unicorn, think about taking some of the ETF/mutual fund advice in this thread. There are so many good options to suit your risk tolerance. Check out vgstx for a balanced fund that has averaged ~10% since 1985. No home runs but consistent perf.

+1 and consider doing it within the confines of a Roth IRA if you are eligible.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by asphaltgambler

Hi all, thanks for the responses. More back story...................I'm 55 and pretty much lost everything of any value by 2010. Largely because my past 'lucrative' career as a BMW / Porsche tech at one the best and largest indi shops fell apart literally in a matter on months.......................months

Since 2008.............. I've invested easily over $50K real cash in changing my career, much non-automotive training, sustaining / subsidizing a new minimalistic way of living. It did finally pay off when I went from part-time (2yrs) in government IT , then full time in June of this past year now in Vehicle Services for THE wealthiest county in Virginia.

Now we have very little debt, I just just interviewed for the next level position that is 2 pay grades higher and fully expect to get that (as I'm told by my supervisor) by end of this month. My wife has a solid career in the health-care field. So we are now on the right track career-wise.

We have some money left, I started a 401, now looking to continue my success with something(s) different. I do some auto / classic car - motorcycle consulting (buying, pricing, repairing) but it is sporadic and sometimes requires more time than money returned to make it worthwhile.

So I would summarize that: I'm looking for something that is more unconventional, low risk, short turn around but has consistency.

BINGO we have a winner. Stick with what you know. Money is earned one dollare at a time...

[tabs]

Originally Posted by Z-man

Tabs has some good insight into the RE market. Flipping houses short term involves greater risk than a long-term home project does. But even with the instability in the housing market, there are still investment opportunities to be had - lots of folks still want to live in homes.


Pick two of the above...

-Z

Buying a home as an ongoing project is fine, cause if the bottom falls out you can still live there.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by sc_rufctr

.............. SO what would you invest in Tabs?

Spoons both sterling silver and steel...like autos you have to have an idea of what you are doing. Both are collapse proof. (Collectable AUTOS are not collapse proof nor is low to medium end art objects).

The Equity markets with some caveats...it is liquid and you can get in and out pretty quick. NOW get this..FOR AS LONG AS THE FEDERAL RESERVE HAS CREDIBILITY THE EQUITY MARKETS WILL HANG IN THERE> the FED is guaranteeing that they will provide a safety net for the economy. BTW this is also true of RE, except for the fact that RE is NOT LIQUID and can be turned on a dime AND>>>>the question becomes HOW MUCH SHADOW INVENTORY IS STILL ON THE BOOKS which means how much is still sitting vacant In this town there are still whole hoods that are nearly empty....that is bad juju.

Notice:>>>>>>the 5 year chart for the SP 500..since that day in September of 2012 when the FED instituted QE3 the SP 500 has gone up at a 45* angle with no major or long lasting corrections. Now some have agreed with my analysis that the SP 500 is good to 2250...it may even have longer legs if the time frame on reaching that benchmark is say 2 years out...

BTW: This is nothing new as I have said as much long before...nothing has changed in the dynamic/equation to change that view.

[onewhippedpuppy]

Just to circle back - why not stick with the car thing? It's something you know well and are obviously good at. I really doubt that things are any different than they were last year, it's probably just a dry spell in your shopping. I do some similar stuff, and have definitely noticed that there are dry spells. Maybe look at some different markets? I recall you doing some muscle cars, 1964-1970 Mustangs seem to be headed upwards but are still affordable. I know my ROI on cars that I fix up is better than I could get in any investment market.

[Dantilla]

Originally Posted by tabs

There is so much wrong with this ^^^, where does one begin?

We begin,... with the comments that follow....

Prices at the beginning of 2012 were getting below the cost of replacement. In other words you could not build it for what it was selling for.

Not an issue with an existing home.

The problem with RE is that it is an illiquid investment, where the bottom can drop right out...

Yes, values can, and do drop from time to time, but not fast enough to ruin the profit on a fixer that is bought and sold within, say, 60 days or so.

The question that I have to ask is, have you been doing this for over 40 years?

Nope.

Going even further back in time to the Great Depression, RE prices collapsed. I am sorry but we control NOTHING, ...

True, but real estate values do not collapse overnight. Values can decline for several months in a row, resulting in a "collapse", but I've never seen a time where I went to bed one night with lots of equity, and woken up the next morning having lost it all.

I quit buying fixer-uppers when the market started heating up. When the masses are flocking to real estate because its the hot thing to do, that's called a "bubble", and cannot last. Anybody who truly understands real estate saw the crash coming.

Now the masses are fleeing real estate, and it's a great time to jump back in.

I don't claim to know what next year will bring, but so far, I've made a profit on every fixer-upper.

When I say "I control the value", I'm speaking of the one, individual house I'm flipping. When I paint, install new fixtures, update wiring, improve the landscaping, yada yada I'm controlling the value of this one house. No way do I control the neighborhood, or the real estate market in general.

That's why it's imperative to buy houses in the right neighborhood, in the right condition for a quick, easy flip. Lots of doggy houses out there, that I'm happy to pass by, and let "the masses" buy and try to mimic the guys on TV.