Elon Musk Prediction

[ckelly78z]

I wouldn't want to rely on a computer for an emergency avoidance system. I think autonomous driving would be a good thing on highways where everyone is going the same direction and speed, but then again, most accidents don't happen on the highway, they are in stop-n-go situations, or small county roads.

I would never want to relinquish my control to a self-driving car, especially if, through a sensor glitch, it runs me into another car, or off the road, with no liability from the designers, and builders of the "smart" car.

[emcon5]

The problem with self driving cars:

https://medium.com/@thorbenson/self-driving-idiot-dc96e8fde89a

There will come a day, maybe in five years or maybe in 20, when self-driving cars are common on the road. These autonomous vehicles will be automatically drifting through highway lanes and up country roads. The soon to be archaic technology of the manually operated car will be on the road as well.

The question becomes: How will manual cars and autonomous vehicles interact? It is well-known that autonomous vehicles are designed to avoid obstacles and drive in the most efficient way possible, so how will they respond to a car that is not operating under the same principles?

I give you… The Idiot. You have programmed your car to take you to work. It calculates the fastest route, drawing in data on traffic, construction and other programmed routes that have not yet been carried out. The car gets moving. Now you’re on the highway, going about 70 mph. Other autonomous vehicles, like yours, are weaving in and out of lanes rhythmically, as if dancing to an inaudible beat. That is, until The Idiot arrives.

The Idiot is driving a yellow 2002 Pontiac Aztek. He is pulling onto the highway and somehow, in his idiot brain, ascertains that almost every single car on the highway he is entering is autonomous. Now, The Idiot, only looking forward, pulls into the middle lane of the highway. He did not have a clear path to pull into that lane, but he knew he could make one. The Idiot knows the cars will move if he is coming at them, and thus, he gets to do whatever the **** he wants.

Continued at the link.

[jyl]

It will happen by degrees.

Cars already have
- Stability control systems that apply braking to individual wheels as necessary
- Adaptive cruise control that controls throttle and brake to maintain minimum distance to the vehicle ahead
- Collision avoidance systems that alert the driver, pretension seatbelts, and apply brakes.
- Lane departure warning systems.that alert the driver
- Radar and infrared detection systems that see objects that the driver may not

We are not far away from a system that will enable a car to cruise on an ordinary freeway, staying in the selected lane and adjusting speed as necessary.

The driver would still have to be monitoring for unusual situations (construction zones, etc) or to instruct the car to change lanes, pull off for potty breaks, etc. Being able to go to sleep and let the car drive and navigate itself from A to B through construction zones, confusing or unmarked local streets, etc - that is a ways off, but I'd sure like to have it.

Personally, I don't enjoy 99% of the driving I do. I've reduced my driving by about 80%, since I ride my bicycle to work almost every day, and I still don't enjoy 99% of my driving - schlepping to the kid's school, to Home Depot, etc. If I could afford it, I'd have Jeeves drive me. If we can have a silicon Jeeves, I'll hire him.

[wdfifteen]

Originally Posted by onewhippedpuppy

Musk loves to make headlines and be talked about. He's an amazing self-promoter. Now if he could just make a profit.......

He did pretty well with Zip2 and PayPal - enough that he has spare money to play with cars and rockets now.

[john70t]

Originally Posted by ckelly78z

I wouldn't want to rely on a computer for an emergency avoidance system.

I also look at the people in the cars around me.
-The silver hair peering over the wheel.
-The young punk hat sideways.
-The woman frantically yacking on the phone while tailgating and weaving lanes.
-The mustachioed pickup driver.
These are all predictors of future behavior.

Try and fit that all into source code...
(hint: You'll need a Cray and a databank of servers)

Then:
It only takes one single discrimination lawsuit.
The manufacturer's source code is now out in the open on the black market for the underworld with illegitimate priorities.

Italian Job anyone?
What would a couple days of traffic snarrel cost the economy?

[john70t]

..."Other autonomous vehicles, like yours, are weaving in and out of lanes rhythmically, as if dancing to an inaudible beat. That is, until The Idiot arrives."...

That will be the day when computers are legally similar to corporations and have more rights than actual humans.

[Seahawk]

Originally Posted by john70t

I also look at the people in the cars around me.

Of course you do, just like any sentient driver does. I drove over one thousand miles last week and avoided a lot of mischief by being hyper aware of the "pilots" in the cars around me.

The potential for automation of cars begins and ends with the infrastructure (like alternative fuels, hybrids, etc) to support it. The infrastructure is simply not available, nor will it be, for awhile.

The initial salvos in automation will be simple: In farming the tractor folks are making huge strides in infield automation, John Deere especially. Google to your hearts content.