Texas to Beat Crude Production Numbers...yet job looses continue

[M.D. Holloway]

Looks like Tejas will break the crude production this year.





But jobs are still in wait. Many jobs lost, more cuts ahead.

Texas Oil/Gas Industry Barometer Falling; Job Losses Climbing | 2015-03-13 | Natural Gas Intelligence


More being done with less? Its not that simple. Once a well is completed, the pumping of crude is pretty straight forward. The work to create the play is where manpower and expertise comes in. We are now in the position for the O&G industry where efficiency has a new day. Some site improved fracking technology as a reason, while others suggest it is far more complicated.

So, there is more product being produced with less workers. The answer can be found when you compare new completion productivity vs existing draw. Good luck trying to decipher those stats!

The up side for the US and Tejas is that energy prices should decline and if we get the nod to export to others our trade balance improves in our favor. Also our manufacturing sector will increase as well - takes power to turn gears. Reduce the kW/hr increases profitability by way of reducing the large 'fixed' cost of energy.

Invest wisely lads...there can be money to be made.

Data to explore:

EIA

Crude Oil Production

Texas RRC - Texas Monthly Oil & Gas Production

EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook + Texas - Peak Oil BarrelPeak Oil Barrel

[sammyg2]

If we are allowed to export crude oil, prices here will rise and prices "over there" with drop.
The only way we win is if it starts a price war.

[BRPORSCHE]

Very little new exploration is planned for the Us48 though. Lots of supply is being pushed through to maximize profits. There is going to be a sharp drop in product ion soon. The amount of stacked rigs in the eagle Ford and Permian basin is unreal.

[Instrument 41]

Things were starting to ramp up in the TMS with drilled wells being completed, mostly by Goodrich and Sanchez. Since prices dropped below $50 most of that activity has stalled. If you follow historical curves things "should" be on the way back up, but now it looks like we might have a double drop in the curve. First in history. Things are changing all over the O&G world.

[widebody911]

Drill baby drill!

Wait, what?

[bivenator]

I think the Iranian oil that will soon be on the market will be another kick in the nuts for O and G.

[onewhippedpuppy]

With prices low, the high price of exploration doesn't pay back. Exploration is where most of the jobs are. It's a cyclical industry, always has been. Eventually another war or embargo will come along and make the prices skyrocket again.

[Porsche-O-Phile]

I'm sure the oil barons are working on that now. They're salivating at the possibility of getting another Bush in the WH.

OPEC is driving the prices down right now but the game won't last forever. Sooner or later some member will get greedy (well, greedier) and break with the rest, curtailing production, the rest will follow suit and the whole thing will fall apart. Right now they're just waiting to see who blinks first.

They're doing this deliberately to try to kill American production and oil industry jobs. Sadly it's working but I think they'll crack and fall apart before it really hurts it in a permanent way.

[M.D. Holloway]

Originally Posted by BRPORSCHE

Very little new exploration is planned for the Us48 though. Lots of supply is being pushed through to maximize profits. There is going to be a sharp drop in product ion soon. The amount of stacked rigs in the eagle Ford and Permian basin is unreal.

Yup, but there are signs...there are instance of rig count increases...

19 Rig Increase: Is It Idiocy Or The Start Of The End Of The Downturn? - Oilpro

While there are a number of scenarios that may explain the increase in the rig count, the most perverse one is the possibility that this marks the start of the capitulation phase of the current downturn. How is it possible that more rigs and falling oil prices signal the end of the downturn? If producers are putting rigs to work because their existing production is falling rapidly and the companies see revenues and profits falling in the immediate future such that they may not be able to pay their bills, this could be a last-ditch attempt to save their companies. In other words, adding rigs may be oil and gas operators’ “Hail Mary” tries. If so, what could it mean?

It would likely be signaling the start of the decline in domestic production that will eventually bring the world’s oil market back into better balance. That would trigger a rise in oil prices that would begin to heal the industry. Remember, those Hail Mary attempts are usually reserved for the very end of a game with the loser trying to tie or win the game. Their success rate is fairly low, but their attempts are exciting. If the rig count jump does reflect operator desperation, we may be much closer to the bottom of this downturn than people think. Only time will provide clarity on this situation.

[widebody911]

Originally Posted by Porsche-O-Phile

They're doing this deliberately to try to kill American production and oil industry jobs.

It's a liberal plot to kill fracking and oil sands development.

[Porsche-O-Phile]

I suppose that's plausible but the analyses I've read mention shale oil and oil sands extraction specifically - in that order. The OPEC boys really, really want to kill American shale production.

[Chocaholic]

The paranoia is strong there P-O-P. The Saudi's have new incentive to make the oil business unattractive to the Ayatollah. I suspect they'll keep crude very low to help the Nuc deal fall apart.

More power to 'em.

[monoflo]

Ok

Iran needs capital -- they can add 1 million barrels a day easy to world supply.

Why not - How much do they love Saudi Arabia really? and yes the Saudis are striving to silence competition - they themselves will be challenged by Iran - OPEC has an issue - the whole cartel could be threatened. Iranians ain't Arabs

Ironic ----high oil prices challenge world economy -- low will also
The bottom ain't here yet
for oil and all distillates for that matter (diesel)
Fracking might be a little dormant --but its a loooooooooooooooooooooooong way from dead

[M.D. Holloway]

agree...I know of a book you might like (wink wink)

[monoflo]

^^^^^^

???

[M.D. Holloway]

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Dow Jones U.S. Exploration & Production Index -19.73%

[M.D. Holloway]

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_noss?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=Michael+D+Holloway

Originally Posted by monoflo

^^^^^^

???

[Instrument 41]

Rig count is up for 2 reasons, and it isn't because oil was going up. Gotta keep that lease and right now drillers have finally dropped their prices so its cheaper to drill. Cap the well and then complete it when, if, oil comes back up. Finally seeing some folks lowering their prices just to keep employees busy and to remain in business.