Tesla Model 3

[scottmandue]

Originally Posted by Steve Carlton

Tesla charging stations?

Is the Tesla plug different than the Ford, Toyota, etc.?

[red-beard]

Originally Posted by Steve Carlton

I think $2/gal is unrealistic. Seems like over the past few years it's been well into the $3s and sometimes over $4/gal. Seems like these low cost gasoline periods never last very long.

OK, so change the $2 to $3. The operating cost @$3/gal vs. $0.20 kWh over 100K miles is $3500 more. What is the price difference between a similar sedan that gets 25 mpg and a Tesla 3?

[red-beard]

Originally Posted by scottmandue

And here in Cali many workplaces/shopping centers have free charging stations.

I'm sure this fad will pass just like the Prius

The stations will not go away. They will not be free for very long.

[1990C4S]

Originally Posted by BlueSkyJaunte

Well, that "one form or another" leaves a lot open for interpretation.

You are likely to get more rather than less: as the 'S' components are available, while the heart of the 3 is not.

[Steve Carlton]

Originally Posted by red-beard

OK, so change the $2 to $3. The operating cost @$3/gal vs. $0.20 kWh over 100K miles is $3500 more. What is the price difference between a similar sedan that gets 25 mpg and a Tesla 3?

Or at $4/gal the difference is an additional $4,000 more. I don't know what electricity costs here now or over the next 5-10 years, either. Maybe one gets charged at work for free... But there's more to it. There's resale value at the end of the ownership period, maintenance costs for each type of vehicle, tax credits, and the convenience of using HOV lanes. I think the future is bright for electric vehicles, either as hybrids, plug-ins, or maybe from hydrogen fuel.

[red-beard]

Originally Posted by Steve Carlton

Or at $4/gal the difference is an additional $4,000 more. I don't know what electricity costs here now or over the next 5-10 years, either. Maybe one gets charged at work for free... But there's more to it. There's resale value at the end of the ownership period, maintenance costs for each type of vehicle, tax credits, and the convenience of using HOV lanes. I think the future is bright for electric vehicles, either as hybrids, plug-ins, or maybe from hydrogen fuel.

They are GREAT! Look at all of the crap you have to do to get people to drive them! Free fuel. Tax Credits, HOV lanes.

Price has been around $0.22-0.23/kWh in San Francisco. It is $0.187/kWh right now because the price of natural gas dropped.

Average Energy Prices, San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose, February 2016 : Western Information Office : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Using $2.44/gal and $0.187/kWh (Today's exact values)

2.44 * 4000 gallons = $9760

.187 * 42500 = $7977.25

So, "fuel" cost is similar.

Using "historic" numbers

4 * 4000 gallons = 16000

.23 * 42500 = 9775

I'm only comparing at 25 mpg. Switch in a Prius or other hybrid at 50 mpg and you'll be way under.

[BlueSkyJaunte]

Originally Posted by red-beard

I'm only comparing at 25 mpg.

I've been averaging 32mpg in my GTI. 31mpg if I drive a little more "spiritedly". Petroleum-powered engine technology isn't standing still.

As has been mentioned before, something that must be factored in is the cost (environmental and human) of getting those rare earths out of the ground to power the hybrid/electric systems.

[wdfifteen]

Originally Posted by scottmandue

Is the Tesla plug different than the Ford, Toyota, etc.?

The 480v 200 amp super chargers are different. A Tesla can use any charger, but only a Tesla can use a supercharger.

[wdfifteen]

Originally Posted by Steve Carlton

Or at $4/gal the difference is an additional $4,000 more. I don't know what electricity costs here now or over the next 5-10 years, either. Maybe one gets charged at work for free... But there's more to it.

There is more to it. People seldom buy cars based solely on the cost of fueling them. There are a number of reasons why I bought a Volt, among them is that it is interesting. It appeals to me for the same reasons I was attracted to my first VW bug, my 356s, my 911, my old Dodge truck - most of the vehicles I own. I find them fun, interesting, and a little different than what everybody else drives. I could not have gotten a Dino car this interesting for under $20 grand.

[red-beard]

Originally Posted by wdfifteen

There is more to it. People seldom buy cars based solely on the cost of fueling them. There are a number of reasons why I bought a Volt, among them is that it is interesting. It appeals to me for the same reasons I was attracted to my first VW bug, my 356s, my 911, my old Dodge truck - most of the vehicles I own. I find them fun, interesting, and a little different than what everybody else drives. I could not have gotten a Dino car this interesting for under $20 grand.

For $20K, I'd consider a Volt. If the cars are reasonably similar and in price, then the plug in hybrid is the way to go. Or even an electric.

[911michael]

Here is another opinion of the Model 3 and Tesla, including his analysis of how environmentally friendly these cars are (or aren't, from his perspective).

Model 3 analysis and Tesla

[red-beard]

Good notes on the "carbon emissions" over the construction, operation and end of life of the vehicle.

Again, not as "green" as they claim to be.

[wdfifteen]

Originally Posted by red-beard

For $20K, I'd consider a Volt. If the cars are reasonably similar and in price, then the plug in hybrid is the way to go. Or even an electric.

There is a 2014 with a hundred miles on it sitting at a dealer near me. The're asking $27000, you can likely get it for $26000. Subtract the $7500 tax credit and you're at $18500.
Langs Chevrolet , Beavercreek, Ohio.

[wdfifteen]

Originally Posted by 911michael

Here is another opinion of the Model 3 and Tesla, including his analysis of how environmentally friendly these cars are (or aren't, from his perspective).

Model 3 analysis and Tesla

That's hardly an analysis. An unbiased report would be interesting though.

[onewhippedpuppy]

Originally Posted by BlueSkyJaunte

I've been averaging 32mpg in my GTI. 31mpg if I drive a little more "spiritedly". Petroleum-powered engine technology isn't standing still.

As has been mentioned before, something that must be factored in is the cost (environmental and human) of getting those rare earths out of the ground to power the hybrid/electric systems.

There are a number of cars that you can buy new for about $20k that get over 40 MPG on the highway. I think if you actually do the math, the payback period on a hybrid or electric car in comparison would be very, very long. I'd much rather have something fun like a Mazda3, the thousands you save compared to the average hybrid or electric would buy a LOT of gas.

[cairns]

There are a number of cars that you can buy new for about $20k that get over 40 MPG on the highway. I think if you actually do the math, the payback period on a hybrid or electric car in comparison would be very, very long. I'd much rather have something fun like a Mazda3, the thousands you save compared to the average hybrid or electric would buy a LOT of gas.

Not many can afford a 50K daily driver. And let's face it that's all any Tesla really is. i could drive from dc to Richmond. But I'd be walking most of the way home.

[island911]

Originally Posted by 9dreizig

they can't make money with a $150k,, no way will they even break even on this one..

Did I miss a cogent response to this^^

It's a very serious Q. --How can Tesla make money on a $35k version, when they can't even make it happen selling a bunch of $150k units?

Is it one of those things where they lose more money on each one; but make it up in volume?

[1990C4S]

I think they aim to break even on the low end cars.

The battery and the drive units are where the real cost is. They are making design changes to reduce all related costs in those elements. That's all I can say.

I can see them teaming up with Magna eventually. Outsource the body-in-white, build the drives, batteries, and own the software.

[creaturecat]

6 cents in US dollars per kw here. 4.50 US for premium gasoline.
crunch those numbers.
: )

[foxpaws]

Originally Posted by red-beard

They are GREAT! Look at all of the crap you have to do to get people to drive them! Free fuel. Tax Credits, HOV lanes.

Price has been around $0.22-0.23/kWh in San Francisco. It is $0.187/kWh right now because the price of natural gas dropped.

Average Energy Prices, San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose, February 2016 : Western Information Office : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Using $2.44/gal and $0.187/kWh (Today's exact values)

2.44 * 4000 gallons = $9760

.187 * 42500 = $7977.25

So, "fuel" cost is similar.

Using "historic" numbers

4 * 4000 gallons = 16000

.23 * 42500 = 9775

I'm only comparing at 25 mpg. Switch in a Prius or other hybrid at 50 mpg and you'll be way under.

So, in Colorado my cost per kilowatt-hour is $0.026 - do the math on that one redbeard (although, since free charging is a benefit I have at work, I only really do 1 charge per week...). Gas is at $1.90.

And in Colorado I got almost $6,500 in a state tax credit on top of my $7500 fed credit - on a car that cost me $28000 out the door (even I can do the math on that - the car cost me $14,000).

Plus, I love car as appliance commuting to work. I have fun toy cars for the weekend, but during the week, it is 'get me to work in relative comfort (heated leather seats, decent air, good seating position), safe and cheaply'. The Volt is a perfect fit.

Great for Tesla - hopefully they can deliver. Just like a 4wd vehicle isn't great for every commute (but live in northern Wyoming - you would really want one there) an electric vehicle isn't perfect for everyone. Choices are good.