911sc longterm values.. Discuss

[greasemonkey]

This is a fascinating post. I'm 39 (today!) and have an SC (RS clone) a '63 MGB roadster, and a daily driver. In my circle of friends and family, there are very few 'car' people. Work colleagues also seem to have little interest in cars other than as a means of transport.

After reading these posts, I can't help thinking that our interest in these cars has been passed down from an age where people had to do a lot of their own work on cars just to keep them going and therefore built up a 'relationship' with their particular vehicle. Perhaps that's why there are many comments about types of cars being related to their owners age? Therefore as modern cars become more like laptops (disposable, phenominally technical objects) peoples interest in motoring will diminish - perhaps?

Another factor will be the tree-huggers. Cars like our SCs are seen as dirty by many. In the UK this is total rubbish IMHO. Most of them are on insurance policies that limit the mileage to 3'000 a year. Most probably do half of that on average as they are 'garage queens'. So 1,500 miles a year at, say, 18mpg,... devastating,... Especially when you see a guy, on his own, in a company expensed Range Rover 'booting' it down the motorway with a dense cloud of brown fuel fumes following it. This mis-guided image can't help prices.

I'm forever hopeful that peoples interest in older cars will remain. In 100 years time they'll probably not be allowed on the road (lack of safety compared to cars that will travel 10mm from each other at 300mph on rails or something,...) but for the time being I'm going to enjoy my cars, modify them how I want to, evangalise about them to others, let as many friends drive them as want to.

As many have said, life is too short to worry too much about their values.

[Kroggers]

Sorry for going off topic for a second - greasmonkey, where in Herts are you based? I grew up in Rickmansworth and visit often as I still have family there!

OK, back on topic

[greasemonkey]

Originally Posted by Kroggers

Sorry for going off topic for a second - greasmonkey, where in Herts are you based? I grew up in Rickmansworth and visit often as I still have family there!

OK, back on topic

PM sent.

[wayner]

When I was 19 I bought an early datsun Z (my poor mans Porsche).

I loved how it outperformed a 911 and felt so much more modern.

Getting back into the hobby many years later, I figured out why a similar year datsun Z is almost worthless compared to a same year 911. I looked at another Z but realized that the only reason I had that car was that I couldn't afford then.

Most people getting back into the hobby later in life have more money to get what they want, and that doesn't mean a poor man's Porsche. I predict the same for most japanese cars especially honda civics.

Rally cars like the WRX might be a different market market though...

[autobonrun]

The truth is that no one knows what the values will be in 20 years because no one can predict future inventions and the impact of technology on the gasoline engine. For all the common person knows, oil companies may already have something developed and are just sitting on it until the right time comes to introduce it. You never know what business plans are in place to maximize profits (e.g develop hydrogen engine market, develop electric motor market, release modifications for gas engine).

However, just in case I do have to replace my flat6 with an electric engine, I've recorded a soundtrack of the car going through the gears that I will play back through speakers. I just need some smart software that can use the right sound for the appropriate gear.

In the meantime, I'll drive mine for the pure enjoyment it brings, and not try to make an SC into an investment. I've had mine for nearly 26 years and over 200k miles so I've already got my money's worth out of it. Hopefully my kids get to enjoy it as well.

[kidrock]

there is some validity to the belief that people that were raised in a certain era will appreciate the cars they grew up with. However, there are many other factors involved...you can't really count or discount preferences, because everyone has different tastes.

For example...I chose the 911 Carrera because I always wanted one. It's the car I always desired during my younger years.

However, if I had my druthers, I would most certainly pick a vintage 356...or even more so, a Jag XKE. I haven't done so, because I cannot afford either.

I doubt that the value of either of these classics has "peaked". They will only become more valuable as their numbers dwindle.

[dw1]

Originally Posted by NineOhOne

Of course you don't remember when Model A's and T's were through the ceiling. You haven't been in the collector car market long enough.

Originally Posted by NineOhOne

Did he buy it for collector reasons? Of course not. You describe it as "ratty", hence he bought it cheap. Did you poll him on why he purchased? This statement proves absolutely zero about "youngsters" desiring our cars...they don't and they won't in the future.

Perhaps I am older than you think I am. I've been carefully tracking Model A prices since the late 70's. Yes, rumbleseat roadsters have always demanded a premium, and the rarities (Town Car) are priced far higher than a typical Fordor, but aside from the period of "collector car madness" (boom & bust of late 80s'/early 90's) a typical model A has never been out of reach. It's been awhile since examples in good condition were cheap, however, due to continued popularity. At one point they were so popular that pretty good-looking replicas were available (remember Shay?). These are, however very different cars than our 911's as most Model A's are on their 2nd or 3rd restoration, and are not really suitable to be driven regularly. (Ok...now I'll hear from someone using an A as a dd.)

I was thinking that Brit sports cars would serve as a good model for "collectability" (and I've owned a TR3A, a TR6, & TR8) but with very few exceptions (e.g. E-type) those never had the price or cache of a Porsche, and the parent companies (MG, Triumph, Austin Healey) going out of business further reduced desirability.

My twentysomething neighbor paid for too much (IMHO) for his ratty SC because he lusted after the car. He told me he found it far more desirable than a WRX or Evo (!) because those cars are so "common". He did not purchase it to be a collectible. FYI, a quick search through this board shows plenty of younger owners of air-cooled 911's standing up to be counted.

In summary, I personally agree with the subtitle of the first of these articles ("not collectible yet, but fun to drive").

3.2:
1984-89 Porsche 911 Carrera Coupe | Affordable Classics | Sports Car Market - August 2001 issue
and SC:
http://www.sportscarmarket.com/AffordableClassics/2000/September/

Yes, these are older articles, but I believe the basic conclusions are still valid.

[GothingNC]

I am more concerned about the EPA pushing for mandatory 15% Ethanol by the end of this year

[mca]

Originally Posted by GothingNC

I am more concerned about the EPA pushing for mandatory 15% Ethanol by the end of this year

I would not worry about that too much. If they did mandate 15%, they would certainly feel the wrath of the people.

[grudk]

Future collectibility is always an interesting question with many opinions. The tendency is to extrapolate recent trends, but this may be misleading, especially since we're in/coming out of (depending on your view) the worst recession since the 1930s. And there are so many variables in play...

Does the economy improve from here? Double dip? What will happen to the US $ and other currencies, and inflation? Stocks? Will wealth in emerging markets provide new 'customers' for cars, and if so, how long will this take?

Then there is Gov't regulation RE fuels, infrastructure? While the combustion engine will be with us for some time, will old/polluting cars be regulated off the road? Will noise restrictions kill race-tracks as we know them?

Societal/social trends.... hard to predict

Short-term collectible values vs long-term?

My rambling 2 cents...

Short-term values of more common cars (SC/Carrera) inflation-adjusted will be flat to slightly down... but nominal values may go up if we get into serious inflation in the next few years. I think the true collectibles will go up in real value for the forseeable future (ten-twenty years), though a double-dip recession would change this...

Longer term... well, I don't see many people collecting horse-drawn carriages these days... though this was the dominant mode of transport for a very long time. Or steam locomotives... (guess it's kinda hard to 'collect these,' though some do...). Then again, people do collect/race horses...

Wait long enough, and I think you can make the argument that value will be zero (or 'scrap') for all automobiles but a few museum pieces. Society/infrastructure/fuel will change beyond what we can comprehend.

Will someone still be 'vintage racing' 917s in a hundred years? Possibly, maybe probably... but in 500? I doubt it. I'm sure they'll be racing something, though...

Anyway, as they say, 'long-term, we'll all be dead' -- so long-term is academic

I say 'drive 'em' and forget about value, unless you are planning to flip/speculate short-term.

[Wayne 962]

Porsche really came of age with the G-Series cars, which defined as the 911SC from 1976 (started with the Euro Carrera) through the 1989 Carrera. Thirteen years of the same body style cemented this into many people's minds of what a Porsche 911 should look like. The 964 ushered in a new look and a new era, and that wasn't widely accepted by the public. As such, these cars will always be sought after. In most non-Porsche people's minds, there is no difference between the cars from 1976 through 1989. First time buyers reading any buyer's guide will automatically gravitate towards the 1987-89 cars, because the books all say these are the most developed cars (rightly so). I see 1987-89 cars as really collectible in the future, with excellent low-mileage examples going for premium dollars (20-50%) over an earlier car. The 911SC will probably be less collectible than these late-Carreras, and will probably be purchased by people who can't afford a Carrera premium, and/or who want a really great car to restore and drive. 911SCs are great cars to fix up and then drive the heck out of. I see less late Carreras being driven hard.

I predict that values for SCs will remain about the same or slightly beat inflation in the near future. They don't really rust, which is good for the cars, but not good for appreciation, as the old cars last much longer.

-Wayne

[carrera turbo]

well said wayne

this is how i see the 911 market, the SCs are the fox body mustangs of the porsche world. there is a ton of them the aftermarket supports them more than any other porsche and there high production numbers make them easy to get and there for keeps there price point low. what i see is models like the wiessach addition and the sportos and maybe some special order colors being more valuable than others. i for one like the fact that these cars are not going through the roof in prices, i just wish i would have kept my long hood cars and the 356s that i once owned, so lets cross our fingers that the market stays affordable because it would be ashame to for future porsche lovers to not be able experiance this type of forum.

cheers ed

[NeedSpace]

While there are many reasons for market value, it seems to me that people want that car that they first fell in love with from about 14-18 years old. When they reach the age to purchase (just when their last kid graduates from college, prices increase). For many in my age group, early 40s, they fell in love with early 80s camaro, firebird (smokey and the bandit), 911. In the next 10 years, I predict these cars will see strong increases in values...

In the last 10 years, the muscle cars of the 70s have seen HUGE increases in values. a 1970 charger hardtop going for $70k? Who would have thought. But those in their 50s and early 60s now have the coin to purchase their first loves...Once these cars see that big increase, they tend to flat out. When I was in my teens, I wanted a t-bird, values were pretty steady at about $13k, but when those in their 60-70s of today reached "buying age" the prices lept...now, they peaked and have come down a bit but will probably stay steady for some time due to rarity.

I believe other cars will always (read as long as I am alive to care) have very strong value...those cars that I am not privileged to purchase like a 1948 Tucker, 1936 Auburn Boattail speedster, 1929 Mercedes SSK, pretty much any Duesenberg or early model Ferrari...

However for my 76 911s, I just hope to put a little money into it, have some fun, and be able to sell it back for about what I put into it or slightly more.

[Ray_G]

About young people, I just recently got my 76 up and running. It was a nice Friday night, wife and I bored after dinner. Hey, lets take the Porsche to Sonic and get some ice cream! So, off we go. After we ordered, the cute little teenage girl came out, gave us our ice cream. She walked away, turned around came back and said all blushing "me and my friends in the kitchen are extremely jealous of your car" I don't know, maybe there is some hope for them.

[sc_rufctr]

Porsche cars are easy to drive.

That alone is one reason the 356 is so popular today. You can daily a 356... People may dispute that but there is no reason why you can't.
Easy to steer and park. Reliable and robust... A well built 356 engine is good for more than 10 years.
Brand new cars would have trouble matching that.

My 911 doesn't drive like a modern car. It's better than that. Still easy to steer and responsive.
Brakes are more than adequate and it's comfortable. Not bad when you consider she's 32 this year.
We all know a 911 engine can go bang but when re built and maintained properly they seem to run forever.

What other "classic" cars are as desirable and enjoyable?

Have you ever driven an E Type Jag without power steering?

That's one good reason for appreciation. Our cars have excellent reputations and this leads to buyer awareness.
The best cars will always go up in value and often change hands without being advertised.

Porsche as a company has also done a lot recently to make our air cooled cars more desirable.
The water cooled cars are great but that market will produce consumers who will want to sample the earlier cars.