Equities Are Up

[sugarwood]

Originally Posted by tabs

Equities are up in the face of a BAD jobs number, indicating a slowing economy. Which portends a FED interest rate cut. How can that be? What perverse Alice In Wonderland logic is at work here?

The answer is simple, the world is living under the Dictatorship of the FED and other Central Banks since the FED launched QE3 in September 2012. Equity action this week once again proved the validity of that reality.

THE Sp500 will once again test its old high of 2945. Once it crashed through 2800 it was cocked and loaded. As usual the only caveat is if a Black Swan event occurs.

What is not to understand about this equation?

Someone needs to take away your internet.
What do your family members think of your mental illness?
Are you estranged from your family members?

[tabs]

Originally Posted by sugarwood

Someone needs to take away your internet.
What do your family members think of your mental illness?
Are you estranged from your family members?

And this is coming from a stupid fk.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by fintstone

Seems like the path I have recommended has always put me in the money...while others predicting doom have not done so well.

How do you construe full employment and no decrease in wages or employment to be such negative news? There are more jobs than people to fill them, even after so many have returned to the workforce. Any employable person not working now, chooses that path.

I think my prediction of the deal with Mexico yesterday to be pretty darned good. Note that you did not see that anywhere else. Similarly the decrease is interest rates that I have expected.

One does not make money without risk...and while the "sky is falling" methodology works eventually if you proclaim it long/often enough...as cyclical events will eventually result in some losses.

Slightly lower rates are exactly what is needed and were to be expected. Anyone investing in instruments that are dependent on higher interest rates for return are simply making an error. The jobs number was very helpful...and the Tariffs a stroke of genius.

I cry for you, because you are being played for a Chump....a Rube. Now why is that, it is because you worked hard saved your money did all the right things and now you have a pot to piss in. What have you got...Play Money.

The powers that be are not coming to your house to take everything you have. But it is far more insidious because day by day the value of your assets is becoming a little more worthless. When you build massive Sovereign Debt and start to screw around with monetary policy it is a stealth fking you are getting.

What makes you a Jabberwocky is that you believe the B'S hype hook line and sinker..you believe everything is swell because you are getting loads of Play Money.. you dont get it they have fked with the value of the money in your pocket and that is what should really piss you off.

My Dad died with the first dime he ever made clenched in his fist..came up through the Depression. Nobody gave him nuthin..and he wouldn't have been fooled by the crap that is going on now. He would have been pissed off that he is getting fked. You might say it is for him that I talk about this fking shyte..

You Mr Fint are a product of your times, a time of unprecedented prosperity and opportunity..that has been the lay of the land in your life. You don't know anything else which if you did would make you far more skeptical and less trusting. You mr Fint can not swallow that you are being fked.

[tabs]

My advice has been to play the game like it will never end but with the realization that the rug is being pulled right out from under your feet. Keeping an eye out for the storm that is out on the horizon..eventually you are going to have to weather that storm and there is nothing you can do about that.

[tabs]

Figure it out the govt is borrowing 1T/4.25T ..or about 25% of what it spends. To bring spending into line with revenue that 1T would have to be cut...exactly what would happen to the economy if suddenly that Trillion wouldn't be cycled through the economy? That is about a 5% haircut in GDP.

Would you still be having 2.3% growth..

Then there is the effect of monetary manipulation on the economy, which is inestimable?

The powers that be want to keep the illusion of a prosperous America alive because they do not want to spook the Sheep. Yet the Sheep in their guts feel something is wrong.

[RWebb]

Yes, and besides tabs being correct about "a BAD jobs number" they revised the last one down too...

so as Sooner noted, the Bond Markets may be right

Trade Wars don't help - tho China is the only one going now

the Fed is likely to lower rates... or more likely

I don't care - I'm fine either way. It IS too bad that I don't own an insurance co. tho...

[sugarwood]

tabs, how long have you been calling for the end of civilization? Since the 1970s?
Have you ever gotten diagnosed with schizophrenia ? What kind of medications do you take?
Do you have a job? What does your ex-wife say?

[cabmandone]

We're all domed if I recall correctly.

Let's get a grip... it was one bad jobs report. Yeah yeah... the last one was revised down but still good. The problem is the benchmark is 2018 hiring averages... 2019 is lagging behind.. who would have thought? With "full employment" hiring is slowing. And let's not forget it was a rough weather month... let's see what happens when the sun shines and things dry up.

[tabs]

Debbie Downer here has consistently been saying that things are fked up and all is not as it seems. That the trajectory of events is headed for a catastrophic failure. All the portents indicate that outcome and HAVE BEEN STATED by Debbie Downer here (myself) on this Board long before they came to pass.

1. The creation of the Mother of all Bubbles, Sovereign Debt stated in 2009 has and is happening. From 11T to 22T in 10 years

2. A Trillion a year or more in debt..has and is happening,

3. A resurgence of Islam and a new dark ages...barbaric ISIS is happening, and the EU is turning into a cesspool

4. Rising Civil and political strife globally..has and is happening, BLM, ANTIFA, Dysfunction in DC.

5. The rise of a REFORMER to power in the US as the establishment bums are thrown out for not fixing the problems...a first time running for office Trump was elected on the platform of MAGA..

6.Other geopolitical players vying for power in the the wake of the power vacuum left by a weakening US geopolitically..has and is happening..for example China in the S China Sea.

7.The rise Putin as a Great White geopolitical player..has happened,

8.The rise of the Right Wing in particular as a response to Islam in the EU is happening.

9. The Dictatorship of the FED sic Central Banks as the key to Equity performance has been proven in 12/18

10, The nearly unabated rise of the SP500 from apx 1450 since QE3 in Sept 2012 has and is happening just as I said it would.

11. Where perceptional reality is skewed in an Alice In Wonderland fashion to match the spin..now the reality of events are being questioned sic as Fake News etc. So the line between reality and fantasy has become blurred. This is and has happened as I said it would in early 2012.

12, That the dust up over the 2000 election results were "a nail in the coffin of the Republic"..since then the US has experienced increasing tumult and political dysfunction...till people including Pollster Frank Luntz are now saying the Republic is imperiled.It has come to pass just as I said it would..

Those and other things ARE ALL ON THE RECORD in the archives of this Board... go look em up..


The road to ruin is filled with bumps and turns before you finally reach your destination. Have faith you are well on the way to that destination and you will get there.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by cabmando

We're all domed if I recall correctly.

Let's get a grip... it was one bad jobs report. Yeah yeah... the last one was revised down but still good. The problem is the benchmark is 2018 hiring averages... 2019 is lagging behind.. who would have thought? With "full employment" hiring is slowing. And let's not forget it was a rough weather month... let's see what happens when the sun shines and things dry up.

You miss the point of this Thread. The news itself DOES NOT MATTER..

The point is that negative news is viewed as a positive by the Equity market. Where Equities RISE on negative news in an ALice In Wonderland fashion.

The second point is that the locus of power is the FED and its actions. That all the other happenings in the world are just blips on screen that are essentially trivial noise that DISTRACTS from where the real power lies.

Simple people are distracted by shiny objects...yourself included.

[KFC911]

I'm not distracted....just not paying much attention either .

I do enjoy these threads though...

[KFC911]

Originally Posted by sugarwood

tabs, how long have you been calling for the end of civilization? Since the 1970s?
Have you ever gotten diagnosed with schizophrenia ? What kind of medications do you take?
Do you have a job? What does your ex-wife say?

Post like this....meh

[cabmandone]

Congratulations tabs... you've finally figured out that the FED has some affect on the stock market! Wow! such an epiphany! People are betting on a rate reduction... they're placing a risky bet unless they're figuring that rate cut will come later in the year if things don't straighten out.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by cabmando

Congratulations tabs... you've finally figured out that the FED has some affect on the stock market! Wow! such an epiphany! People are betting on a rate reduction... they're placing a risky bet unless they're figuring that rate cut will come later in the year if things don't straighten out.

Well there you go again....it is not the rate cut itself that Equities are keying in on.
.BUT WHETHER OR NOT THE FED HAS A ACTIVIST POLICY. OR NOT...When the FED went neutral the bottom fell out..and only recovered when the FED changed back to an activist policy.

For such a smart guy you sure can't see beyond the trivial..to see the larger dynamic in play. But dont feel so all alone most people are stuck in the same perceptional bog as you are.

[cabmandone]

Originally Posted by tabs

Well there you go again....it is not the rate cut itself that Equities are keying in on.
.BUT WHETHER OR NOT THE FED HAS A ACTIVIST POLICY. OR NOT...When the FED went neutral the bottom fell out..and only recovered when the FED changed back to an activist policy.

For such a smart guy you sure can't see beyond the trivial..to see the larger dynamic in play. But dont feel so all alone most people are stuck in the same perceptional bog as you are.

I'd like to congratulate you on figuring out the market speculates on things.... including whether the FED will raise or lower interest rates. As far as the FED going "activist"... what made the market move recently was the FED taking a less aggressive approach to rate hikes. Yeah... the market moves based on speculation... epiphany.

[KFC911]

Originally Posted by cabmando

I'd like to congratulate you on figuring out the market speculates on things.... including whether the FED will raise or lower interest rates. As far as the FED going "activist"... what made the market move recently was the FED taking a less aggressive approach to rate hikes. Yeah... the market moves based on speculation... epiphany.

In my fiscally conservative opinion, the FED had it perfectly laid out....nothing aggressive, actually...late imo. The gdp was 2.9 five years ago when they began their unanimous strategy....

They did NOT even make it back to 2.75 for the overnight to banks, and decided they were just going "keep" 2T of QE stimuli on their books after unloading a fraction ?

What happened on Dec 4th that caused the crash? Not the FED's .25/qtr increases....from ZERO...not to me.

[fintstone]

With little inflation, why would the Fed want to decrease liquidity now any more than during the previous Administration?

[KFC911]

Originally Posted by fintstone

With little inflation, why would the Fed want to decrease liquidity now any more than during the previous Administration?

We went from deflation and stimuli to get to 2014 or so....the FED laid out their plan to unwind and began in '15....based upon data and such. They actually were doing quite well.

Then Dec. 4th happened....and Tabz wuz right ....

What should a fiscally neutral overnight interest rate to banks be? They are still artificially low....at least 50 basis pts imo.

The recession looms...eventually, as always...

No tools in the box but more debt ?

Tabby...yer up.

[cabmandone]

Originally Posted by KC911

What happened on Dec 4th that caused the crash?

Computer trading and Speculation on trade with China along with Speculation about more interest rate hikes in the future... Speculation happened... then reality hit in January and the market started going back up. I've been watching the market do what it do... and using my cash to buy inventory that I know is a good deal. I figure I'm saving the nearly 6% interest on my LOC plus making my normal or higher markup. Win Win! and I don't have to worry about computers and people speculating on things making my investment worth less.

[fintstone]

Originally Posted by KC911

We went from deflation and stimuli to get to 2014 or so....the FED laid out their plan to unwind and began in '15....based upon data and such. They actually were doing quite well.

Then Dec. 4th happened....and Tabz wuz right ....

What should a fiscally neutral overnight interest rate to banks be? They are still artificially low....at least 50 basis pts imo.

The recession looms...eventually, as always...

No tools in the box but more debt ?

Tabby...yer up.

It was a different Fed in 2014.

If I recall, Tabs expected a market crash in late Dec...while a nice rally came instead. There is no reason to expect other than a bull market. Great employment, low interest, low inflation, great consumer sentiment, etc. Seems to me that the data indicated that the Fed got ahead of themselves with the interest rates. Lower rates were the correct path.

What makes you think they are artificially low (other than you guessed wrong and are not "in the money")?