Equities Are Up

[KFC911]

Originally Posted by fintstone

It was a different Fed in 2014.

If I recall, Tabs expected a market crash in late Dec...while a nice rally came instead. There is no reason to expect other than a bull market. Great employment, low interest, low inflation, great consumer sentiment, etc. Seems to me that the data indicated that the Fed got ahead of themselves with the interest rates. Lower rates were the correct path.

What makes you think they are artificially low (other than you guessed wrong and are not "in the money")?

A couple of the 9 voting members that unanimously voted back then, temp terms expired, allowing two of the historically dovish (easy credit) to move in, T appointed some mebbe...who knows, but on Dec. 4....shtf and the FED did a 180....so I dunno...but tariffs suck, always have, and that's why. I am doing just fine on sidelines...doesn't matter.

I think they are at least .25 - .75 below the desired "mid-range"...historical rates...neither dovish nor hawkish here...

Freebird

[tabs]

On 12/22/18 the president of the NY FED made soothing comments about the FED being more sensitive to the sentiments of Equities. Those comments were further supported by Powell the next week.

Upon those comments Equities turned on a dime from crashing to rallying on the 26th

If the FED had not made those comments the crash would have continued. There is no reason to think otherwise. SP 2250 was looming..and sp 1400 was a possibility. That means everything since 2012 was on the table.

Trump can cause the heart to skip a beat, but the FED can cause a heart attack.

I don't think that the commentary on this Board is savvy.

Numbers are a reflective gauge of sentiment, but they are not the sentiment itself. The trick is knowing what the sentiment is and more over why the beast is feeling that sentiment.

Today the sentiment is not quite as trusting of the FED having been spooked late last year by them. That is showing up in more volatility as the Beast is more wary.and thus skittish.

[tabs]

This morning i woke up and thought what is the sp beast up to today. I thought it is scaling the heights of 2900 and pushing towards a new high.
When I checked it was up 32pts to apx 2923.

If the sp does not make a new high upon testing the old high it is a real negative. I do think it will make a new high as the sentiment is confident. Or should I say the beast is expecting to make a new high.

[tabs]

There are people out there who listen to and believe what I say. All I have to do is write it down.

I don't need the authority conveyed by position because I am TABS.

[fintstone]

Originally Posted by tabs

On 12/22/18 the president of the NY FED made soothing comments about the FED being more sensitive to the sentiments of Equities. Those comments were further supported by Powell the next week.

Upon those comments Equities turned on a dime from crashing to rallying on the 26th

If the FED had not made those comments the crash would have continued. There is no reason to think otherwise. SP 2250 was looming..and sp 1400 was a possibility. That means everything since 2012 was on the table.

Trump can cause the heart to skip a beat, but the FED can cause a heart attack.

I don't think that the commentary on this Board is savvy.

Numbers are a reflective gauge of sentiment, but they are not the sentiment itself. The trick is knowing what the sentiment is and more over why the beast is feeling that sentiment.

Today the sentiment is not quite as trusting of the FED having been spooked late last year by them. That is showing up in more volatility as the Beast is more wary.and thus skittish.

It seems like I predicted that rally to the day (and the previous one)...while you predicted the opposite. Why are you lecturing me? Do you really think I don't consider the Fed and what the Fed indicates regarding interest rates in my predictions/investments? On the contrary. While you predict the markets based on what the Fed says...I base mine on what the Fed will say in the future...and invest beforehand (as to enjoy gains based on the market change). Of course trade, business sentiment, employment, etc. are also figured in.

[KFC911]

I think I shall call you Bond....Fint Bond .

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by KC911

I think I shall call you Bond....Fint Bond .

No, no, no...

It's Bonds, Tabs Bonds

And Our Man Fint

[fintstone]

Originally Posted by KC911

I think I shall call you Bond....Fint Bond .

No bonds...just real estate and equities.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by KC911

I think I shall call you Bond....Fint Bond .

As I have said before..Fint is your go to guy. He is YOUR MAN FINT...

[Sooner or later]

Tabs, answer the phone. Jay Powell is on the line.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by fintstone

It seems like I predicted that rally to the day (and the previous one)...while you predicted the opposite. Why are you lecturing me? Do you really think I don't consider the Fed and what the Fed indicates regarding interest rates in my predictions/investments? On the contrary. While you predict the markets based on what the Fed says...I base mine on what the Fed will say in the future...and invest beforehand (as to enjoy gains based on the market change). Of course trade, business sentiment, employment, etc. are also figured in.

The trick is knowing what the sentiment is and more over why the beast is feeling that sentiment. ...TABS 6/18/19

I could care less about all the BS you talk about..I only care about what the "Animal Spirits" sic the Beast is thinking and feeling...

[fintstone]

I understand. And I don't care about "Animal Spirts"...just making enough money so this poor country boy can retire as a "man of wealth and taste" like you.

[fintstone]

Don't feel bad. Lots of relatively smart folks got it wrong.

[KFC911]

Originally Posted by fintstone

No bonds...just real estate and equities.

Both backed by cheap, easy FED credit....how conservative is that Mr Bond?

Or is it "Naught, Naught", or "Menuhead", when the cape comes off .

What would you suggest for conservative " savers", now adverse to risk, that are older?

[Sooner or later]

Adverse or averse?

[fintstone]

Originally Posted by KC911

Both backed by cheap, easy FED credit....how conservative is that Mr Bond?

Or is it "Naught, Naught", or "Menuhead", when the cape comes off .

What would you suggest for conservative " savers", now adverse to risk, that are older?

Real estate and equities young man. I am a conservative saver that is averse to risk...and older.

There is nothing more dependable than easy credit (to both).

...and nothing is more conservative than seizing opportunity when the conditions essentially dump money into your lap.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by fintstone

Don't feel bad. Lots of relatively smart folks got it wrong.

Problem with Krugman is that he lets his ideology get in the way of his thinking.. He was specifically predicting a disaster with Trump..

My thinking is that the Trajectory of this nation of which the advent of Trump or a Trump like figure is just part of the program...a scene in the larger play. Nothing is changed the nation is still manipulating the currency with low interest rates and a $1,000,000,000,000.00 USD DEFICIT PER YEAR GOING FORWARD EVERY YEAR.

How many more Trillions on the Card will make everything you have worthless? It is like Whiskey right off the Still it is around 140 proof or 70% alcohol. The more water you add to it the less the alcohol content there is..until if you add enough water you might as well just be drinking water...That is your situation.

The irony is that will all that dilution of the money one would expect inflation, but with the situation we have of weak consumer demand making it a DEFLATIONARY situation. All that new liquidity/money, cheap interest rates to keep the cash flowing and debt which is a money creation of sorts does is keep deflation at bay. It is like pouring money into the Black Hole of Deflation, it gets sucked right up with virtually nothing to show for it..

They (the political, bureaucratic, corporate sic biz, Wall Street and Academic leadership) thought that by priming the pump with liquidity that the engine of the economy would catch fire once again..and everything would be swell again. Just like it has always been before. It didn't work and won't work.

It is NOT SWELL if you are borrowing a Trillion a year, HAVE TO keep interest rates low and have to keep a large Central Bank balance sheet. As stated back in 2011 or so you are going to see Growth at roughly the rate of population increase...which if you subtract that number out of the Growth rate gives you minimal real growth.

I guess it is the natural learning curve is to try everything that has worked before to see if it works this time or not...throw it up against the wall to see if it sticks. Almost all of the Leadership and certainly the peons don't get it...The Global economy of scale does not have a viable consumer base to sustain it. Thus deflation and eventual collapse when they can not borrow or print anymore. At some point the rubber band snaps....

[tabs]

This morning i woke up and thought what is the sp beast up to today. I thought the Beast is going to be flat to down. Why yesterday was a big move up in anticipation that plateaued. the Beast is now waiting for the FOMC before it reacts.

I then checked what the Beast was doing...it was up 0.39 pts...

The FOMC did not lower rates but is holding steady..the Beast does not know what to make of that...the FED thinks the economy is strong enough to maintain rates, which is not a bad thing..so the car is kind of in neutral for the moment.

[KFC911]

Originally Posted by Sooner or later

Adverse or averse?

Both actually....but OK .

Someone in their mid-80s Fint....I thinking about folks like them. I'm very pleased with my returns this year....and sleep well. My mom does NOT....exposed to even a minor dip. Long term....most of us will be just fine....except Tabz of course

How's that retirement going Tabby? Yep....mine too

Different strokes....

[KFC911]

Hmmm....just read where nearly half of the 17 FED members are now talking about lowering up to 50 basis pts this year...to sustain a 10 year economy.....

Give me a freakin break....nothing, and I mean nothing conservative about this...

But I'm waaaay ahead of Mr. Bond in retirement years, life is good, and if he ever does catch up....

I won't GAF...

Bond....Pops Bond