Equities Are Up

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A booming economy purchased on credit cards for the kids and grand-kids to deal with

[Shaun @ Tru6]

My sense is the foundation of the economy is squarely based in cheap money, nothing more. The tax cuts went to stock buy backs and is growing our national debt on a pace unseen. Unemployment rate is based on low paying service sector jobs.

The Fed is in effect acting like a venture fund. Cheap money means everyone is "investing" in growth. At some point those loans need to be paid back. And at some point the $22 trillion national debt needs some responsible management. No one in government cares about the national debt because they a betting that it won't blow up for another 5 years at the minimum. Spending and spending buys what? Votes. And that's all they care about.

This country is going to crash harder than 2008 in the next 10 years. But who cares, money is cheap now.

[sammyg2]

Originally Posted by Sooner or later

Adverse or averse?

LOL, daddy slapped mommy at the dinner table!

[fintstone]

Originally Posted by KC911

Hmmm....just read where nearly half of the 17 FED members are now talking about lowering up to 50 basis pts this year...to sustain a 10 year economy.....

Give me a freakin break....nothing, and I mean nothing conservative about this...

But I'm waaaay ahead of Mr. Bond in retirement years, life is good, and if he ever does catch up....

I won't GAF...

Bond....Pops Bond

Don't fight the Fed.

Actually, I retired in 2002...and then got another job to supplement my small pension and my hobby business. I hope to have enough by the end of 2020 to retire again...as a man of wealth and taste like you and Tabs.

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6

My sense is the foundation of the economy is squarely based in cheap money, nothing more. The tax cuts went to stock buy backs and is growing our national debt on a pace unseen. Unemployment rate is based on low paying service sector jobs.

The Fed is in effect acting like a venture fund. Cheap money means everyone is "investing" in growth. At some point those loans need to be paid back. And at some point the $22 trillion national debt needs some responsible management. No one in government cares about the national debt because they a betting that it won't blow up for another 5 years at the minimum. Spending and spending buys what? Votes. And that's all they care about.

This country is going to crash harder than 2008 in the next 10 years. But who cares, money is cheap now.

If inflation is at 2% don't expect 5% fed fund rates.

Rates are raised to slow growth and tame inflation.

Currently, there is no need to slow growth or control inflation.

[KFC911]

Originally Posted by fintstone

... I hope to have enough by the end of 2020 to retire again...as a man of wealth and taste like you and Tabs.

You can never attain enough money to reach the point that Tabz and I have Mr. Bond ...you missed that train as it sailed away from the dock....years ago

You're certainly worth a lot more than I....mebbe even Tabby (who cares)....but I bet after a good Tabby marinade and smoke...he's just gonna taste better .

[tabs]

Fint has done real well..he has done all the right things and has been rewarded amply. But that don't mean nothin anymore except that he has something that can be taken...slowly diluted day by day. Instead of crowing about his ample reward he should be howling mad that he is being robbed. He has bought into the fairy tale that everything is moving in the "right direction." He is their Huckleberry..right off the truck.

You might say i get mad for him..because it bs that guys like him are getting fked.

[tabs]

The Beast is uncertain about tommorows direction? It could go either way...given that, caution would dictate that money is taken off the table.

War drums are beating in the Gulf..and that could cause an oil shock to the global economy...that would cause a big down draft. So far that is not a front and center concern..it seems to be off the radar screen.

[KFC911]

When I wuz much younger....fixin' to sing Johnny Paycheck's tune.....I had everything tied up in RE and equities....like Mr Bond. I did very well....then along came ....well you know !

When I started singing....I wuz down, down, down....40% .

I have no regrets....now .

That wuz NOT fun a dozen years back....nope!

Profits taken....yep...but a different "tack" now....sail on,...if the wind stops....I'll just fish instead .

[tabs]

This morning the FED's Dovish comments about cutting interest rates to support the economy reinforced the 2012 paradigm which sent equities rallying to a new high.

Equities broke upward..provided sp closed above 2945 the door is open to sp 3000. The Gulf war drums are now effecting crude prices..so that situation is now on the radar screen..

The 10 year is below 2%.

[jyl]

YTD SPY +18% which is plenty for a while year.

Sell in May and go away seasonality.

Bond market scenting recession. Bond guys are smarter than stock guys on macro.

Increasing volatility with big swings more frequent.

Market hostage to unpredictable policy tweets

Leading indicators rolling over.

Thanks, but I'll take some chips off the table now.

[fintstone]

Originally Posted by KC911

When I wuz much younger....fixin' to sing Johnny Paycheck's tune.....I had everything tied up in RE and equities....like Mr Bond. I did very well....then along came ....well you know !

When I started singing....I wuz down, down, down....40% .

I have no regrets....now .

That wuz NOT fun a dozen years back....nope!

Profits taken....yep...but a different "tack" now....sail on,...if the wind stops....I'll just fish instead .

Me...I am just a poor country boy. Even doubling my assets every few years does not make me wealthy..as I started with little. 2 x nuthin is nuthin. Just need to make/save enough to last another 40 years.

[tabs]

Just a thought...if the Gulf war drums should cause an oil shock..which effects the global economy....the FED is there to catch it. So for the moment equities are a win win no matter what..

[fintstone]

Originally Posted by tabs

This morning the FED's Dovish comments about cutting interest rates to support the economy reinforced the 2012 paradigm which sent equities rallying to a new high.

Equities broke upward..provided sp closed above 2945 the door is open to sp 3000. The Gulf war drums are now effecting crude prices..so that situation is now on the radar screen..

The 10 year is below 2%.

Yes. Exactly what I was talking about last night. Don't fight the Fed.

[Sooner or later]

If there is an oil price shock there is nothing the fed can do.

[KFC911]

Originally Posted by fintstone

Me...I am just a poor country boy. Even doubling my assets every few years does not make me wealthy..as I started with little. 2 x nuthin is nuthin. Just need to make/save enough to last another 40 years.

I too started with nothing...but an education, and zero debt. I've always been wealthy

Bonds I purchased right before T-man spoke on Dec 4th....up over 10%, with a guaranteed return of 5%...

Made up for some of my POT stocks...up in smoke

Mostly on the sideline now...happier here.

...always gonna be poor too....just depends on what matters to ya most. . YMMV...and I'm sure it does !

[fintstone]

Originally Posted by KC911

I too started with nothing...but an education, and zero debt. I've always been wealthy

Bonds I purchased right before T-man spoke on Dec 4th....up over 10%, with a guaranteed return of 5%...

Made up for some of my POT stocks...up in smoke

Mostly on the sideline now...happier here.

...always gonna be poor too....just depends on what matters to ya most. . YMMV...and I'm sure it does !

We all define "wealthy" (and poor) differently...but an education and zero debt is a pretty darned good start to one's journey.

Great return. Congrats.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by Sooner or later

If there is an oil price shock there is nothing the fed can do.

Let a few more foreign flag tankers get hit ...let those nations start to cry...go to U.N. and let them cry there...all to create a mandate to stop the scourge of the Gulf from committing anymore depredations. Then squash Iran like a bug.

Destroy their navy, air defense, nuclear capability and oil refining capacity. Cut them off at the knees..end that regime of religious god bothered nutz.

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by tabs

Let a few more foreign flag tankers get hit ...let those nations start to cry...go to U.N. and let them cry there...all to create a mandate to stop the scourge of the Gulf from committing anymore depredations. Then squash Iran like a bug.

Destroy their navy, air defense, nuclear capability and oil refining capacity. Cut them off at the knees..end that regime of religious god bothered nutz.

Dat ain't da fed reserve.

[KFC911]

Originally Posted by fintstone

We all define "wealthy" (and poor) differently...but an education and zero debt is a pretty darned good start to one's journey.

Great return. Congrats.

LOL....I'm braggin' about the returns on just a couple of bonds.. up because the FED blindsided me after T-man spoketh....pure genius on my part in hindsight...wearing thick glasses too !

I've mostly exited equities due to age, portfolio restructuring, profit taking, evaluations, and other good reasons over a couple of years.

I'll stay out for now...9 years was a damn good run.

I always rode out market corrections (100% invested), never a timer... taken some serious hits in the gut too...not now, no mas.