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Registered
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Linn County, Oregon
Posts: 48,500
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Inverted
3 year yield 2.02%
10 year yield 1.74% Just sayin'........
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"Now, to put a water-cooled engine in the rear and to have a radiator in the front, that's not very intelligent." -Ferry Porsche (PANO, Oct. '73) (I, Paul D. have loved this quote since 1973. It will remain as long as I post here.) |
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08-05-2019, 10:18 AM
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Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Roseville, CA
Posts: 3,066
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Hasn't that happened several times recently?
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08-05-2019, 10:21 AM
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Registered
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Linn County, Oregon
Posts: 48,500
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Yep. Not as much though..
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"Now, to put a water-cooled engine in the rear and to have a radiator in the front, that's not very intelligent." -Ferry Porsche (PANO, Oct. '73) (I, Paul D. have loved this quote since 1973. It will remain as long as I post here.) |
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08-05-2019, 10:30 AM
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Get off my lawn!
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My credit union pays 3.5% on my checking account, up to 25 grand. Better than most CDs.
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Glen 49 Year member of the Porsche Club of America 1985 911 Carrera; 2017 Macan 1986 El Camino with Fuel Injected 350 Crate Engine My Motto: I will never be too old to have a happy childhood! |
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08-05-2019, 10:36 AM
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Join Date: Apr 2002
Posts: 30,388
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The widest gap since early 2007...the fundamentals of our economy are sound was a bit later
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08-05-2019, 10:37 AM
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Join Date: Apr 2002
Posts: 30,388
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I thought this was a Patrick HELP thread
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08-05-2019, 10:37 AM
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Join Date: Apr 2002
Posts: 30,388
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Quote:
Most new offerings have disappeared today...rut-roh... |
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08-05-2019, 10:40 AM
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Yield curve inversion (typical is 3 mo to 10 yr) have an excellent record of predicting recessions. I've read that the strongest signal is when the curve remains inverted for 3+ months. This inversion started > 3 mo ago (March 2019?) and seems to be getting deeper.
Every time, various pundits say "its different this time" but, so far, it never is. The lag from inversion starting to recession starting is variable. Can be 1+ year. Stock markets top out before recessions start. The lead can be 1 year. When yield curve inversion starts, you have to figure that stock market top is likely anywhere from imminent to 1 year off. Investors can get too clever with trying to nail the exact timing of market top. Just accept low confidence on timing but decent confidence on outcome. I had a frustrating conversation last Tuesday. A client yelled at and fired me (taking his $ elsewhere). He was furious because his portfolio was 15% cash (at yield +2.05%) in an up market. Didn't help to point out that, despite cash, the portfolio was +22% year to date. Well, I'm not exactly upset about the last couple days' action.
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1989 3.2 Carrera coupe; 1988 Westy Vanagon, Zetec; 1986 E28 M30; 1994 W124; 2004 S211 What? Uh . . . “he” and “him”? |
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08-05-2019, 11:44 AM
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White and Nerdy
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Quote:
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08-05-2019, 11:51 AM
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AutoBahned
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08-05-2019, 04:18 PM
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White and Nerdy
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It inverts because T buyers expect negative instability.
This shifts them to wanting to put their money away long term. Which puts all the competition for the long term T's. Which drops the I-rate for the long term T's. I do see that a lot of powerful people are motivated to disrupt the daylights out of this country for political power. With an election around the corner, perhaps a major disruption and economic pain is planned and in the works. A lot will come down to if we let ourselves be disrupted. How strong are we emotionally and rationally? |
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08-05-2019, 05:46 PM
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Registered
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Linn County, Oregon
Posts: 48,500
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Quote:
__________________
"Now, to put a water-cooled engine in the rear and to have a radiator in the front, that's not very intelligent." -Ferry Porsche (PANO, Oct. '73) (I, Paul D. have loved this quote since 1973. It will remain as long as I post here.) |
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08-06-2019, 09:14 AM
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White and Nerdy
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Look at when Bill Clinton was up for re-election. Compare it to when Bush was up for re-election. Look at it when Obama was up for re-election. |
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08-06-2019, 09:22 AM
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Join Date: Apr 2002
Posts: 30,388
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Since most of the debt is held here (between the US gov & private), and outside of US the single largest holder is China (1.x Trillion)...
Doh! |
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08-06-2019, 09:27 AM
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AutoBahned
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maybe time for an inversion table
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08-06-2019, 11:54 AM
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Join Date: Apr 2002
Posts: 30,388
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^^^^
Quote:
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08-06-2019, 12:32 PM
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A Man of Wealth and Taste
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Out there somewhere beyond the doors of perception
Posts: 51,063
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Quote:
Next thing you know you will be telling us that Leftists have micro chips implanted in their heads and that during the fulll moon phase of the Lunar cycle they get reprogrammed with the new talking points.. 
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Copyright "Some Observer" |
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08-06-2019, 12:55 PM
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Join Date: Apr 2002
Posts: 30,388
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Just pointing out who one of the bigly players is Tabby. I just know me, you and Soros can't do what we talked about
....oopsNebermind... |
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08-06-2019, 01:01 PM
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AutoBahned
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Yeh - getting stuck upside down can suck the interest right out of you 
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08-06-2019, 04:22 PM
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Platinum Member
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Leave the gun. Take the cannoli.
Posts: 20,923
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Quote:
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Politics is in the eye of the beholder - Rodney Dangerfield |
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08-06-2019, 07:48 PM
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Carrera
1989 Porsche 911 Carrera 3.2
Copenhagen Blue
