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Posts: 5,726
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He is right about gas prices. Buying of gas futures in 2008, shot the price up and the conomy fell.
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drew1 wife has 924 turbo |
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08-07-2019, 06:15 AM
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Join Date: Apr 2002
Posts: 30,414
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 .signed... Stretch 
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08-07-2019, 12:12 PM
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A Man of Wealth and Taste
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Out there somewhere beyond the doors of perception
Posts: 51,063
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I love it I love it I love it...
Bewildered sheep.. Pimco is saying look to negative interest rates COMING in the USA.. The 10 year Bund is at -0.6%. US rate are roughly at where Trump got elected in 16. The FED is going to have to stop waffling about..or the bottom will drop out. Trump should stfu about the FED as politics is now slopping over into the economy...the result is fear and loathing born of chaos. Today's wild Equity ride falls into my volatility prediction about Equities post 2018. Today's action indicates that Equity sentiment remains buoyant. The economy is going to return to that BO era growth rate of 1.6 to 2.5% range. If it starts to break lower in the face of CB juicing the world will have bigger economic problems than being in a recession. Last edited by tabs; 08-07-2019 at 02:01 PM.. |
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08-07-2019, 01:45 PM
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Join Date: Apr 2002
Posts: 30,414
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I don't like this....nope, me don't like this at all
 .It all just seem wacky, with so many issues yet to be addressed (China) yet the Fed is gonna do what now, when the inevitable recession arrives... What then...rates already miniscule, more QE buying that they just keep on their balance sheet forever...how much more? JYL...help me understand... Does not the FED have a mandate to maintain moderate long term interest rates? Cause the ones I just looked at just suck.....and they are going in the wrong direction fastly .I'm locked in....but this is redonkulous....imo. Last edited by KFC911; 08-07-2019 at 01:49 PM.. |
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08-07-2019, 01:46 PM
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Join Date: Apr 2002
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08-07-2019, 01:47 PM
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A Man of Wealth and Taste
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Out there somewhere beyond the doors of perception
Posts: 51,063
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You got the end wrong...i am a rear end head.. I hesitated on saying it but now I will... Tabs has spoken. You Boyz have had your fun with Trump. Last edited by tabs; 08-07-2019 at 02:11 PM.. |
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08-07-2019, 02:04 PM
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Join Date: Apr 2002
Posts: 30,414
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Did you tell us boyz that this tariff stuff wuz gonna happen...'cause that's the dawg....of the FED's tail imo
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08-07-2019, 02:10 PM
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A Man of Wealth and Taste
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Out there somewhere beyond the doors of perception
Posts: 51,063
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The deck is stacked and the game is rigged and nothing makes sense anymore..the world is Dipsonian. Topsy turvy Alice In Wonderland chaoitic. |
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08-07-2019, 02:18 PM
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A Man of Wealth and Taste
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Out there somewhere beyond the doors of perception
Posts: 51,063
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08-07-2019, 02:19 PM
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A Man of Wealth and Taste
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Out there somewhere beyond the doors of perception
Posts: 51,063
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America ain't what it used to be.. The debt ceiling deal signed off on without a squeak..has created further instability globally. It is a defacto admission that the debt train can not be stopped. That the US can not show any restraint but is addicted to spending like a junkie. That is bad juju which creates fear of future consequences. The rest is noiz. Btw I noticed that with recent spoon auctions being very strong. Also Gold is up..there is an added new flavor to the tenor of things..anxiety and fear. The result is a new level of hysteria among Liberals and even the mayhem on the streets. Last edited by tabs; 08-07-2019 at 03:03 PM.. |
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08-07-2019, 02:32 PM
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AutoBahned
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I dunno if a direct mandate to maintain moderate long term interest rates is in the 1997 statute that Congress passed - but it is one of the two as a practical matter
but the do have a dual mandate: price stability and ... the other is unemployment Last edited by RWebb; 08-07-2019 at 04:40 PM.. |
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08-07-2019, 02:56 PM
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Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Gulf Coast FL
Posts: 1,484
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recently overheard at a FED meeting:
"MANDATES?, we ain't got no stinking mandates" |
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08-07-2019, 04:07 PM
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funny -
ok, I checked the text of the 1977 Act and it does specifically say moderate long-term interest rates; also says "shall" one o' them thar real important words https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/1040 |
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08-07-2019, 04:42 PM
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Join Date: Apr 2002
Posts: 30,414
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Never gets talked about by the fiscal liberals who love cheap credit imo:
The 10 year is at 1.7 Tabz....yer up.... |
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08-08-2019, 03:24 AM
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A Man of Wealth and Taste
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Out there somewhere beyond the doors of perception
Posts: 51,063
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The 10 year Bund is a -0.60% interest... The FED has tried to normalize rates and draw down the balance sheet in 2018 and you saw how that worked out...They have to juice to keep the lights on.. That was real apparent by 2012.. After I saw GW on the Telly that day in the fall of 08.. I knew the paradigm had changed and have been saying it since...A before and after moment..like the day before the 29 crash and the day after, the day before Pearl Harbor and the day after. It was the end of the Great American Post WW2 Prosperity Bubble..get it Bubble...The American consumer was tapped out and had reached their credit limit. The banks were giving home loans to people who could not even make the payments..that is how far down into the credit barrel they were reaching to keep the music playing.. It is amazing that most people do not get it...it is so simple. They continue to think that 08 was just another bump on the road and that with a few tweaks all will be swell again..
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Copyright "Some Observer" Last edited by tabs; 08-08-2019 at 09:00 AM.. |
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08-08-2019, 08:55 AM
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Registered
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"The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the Federal Open Market Committee shall maintain long run growth of the monetary and credit aggregates commensurate with the economy’s long run potential to increase production, so as to promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates." With unemployment <4%, CPI inflation around 2%, and 10 year Treasury yields a little over 2% (until recently), the economy was inline with its mandate. The Fed tries to apply/remove monetary stimulus as needed to smooth out economic cycles to keep inline with mandate. Which means they apply stimulus when economy is in a recession and remove it when economy is recovered and overheating. During Bernanke's term, the Fed applied unprecedented amounts of monetary stimulus (lowering rates and buying bonds) to help pull the US out of the Great Recession. During Yellen's term, the Fed started removing that stimulus (raising rates and not buying bonds). Powell started out continuing stimulus removal. However, the President wants maximum stimulus as long as he's President, so he is forcing the Fed to lower rates (add stimulus). The escalating trade wars (US vs everyone including China) are acting as drags on the economy, further pressuring the Fed to lower rates. And the $1.3 trillion/year Federal budget deficit is forcing massive bond issuance, pressuring the Fed to resume buying bonds. We are currently in a vicious cycle. President escalates trade war, markets drop, Fed cuts rates, markets rebound, President escalates again, repeat. The President hopes this will end with China surrendering (agreeing to a trade deal that looks like a US victory) when maximum monetary stimulus is in effect, to trigger a monster market rally in time for the election. China hopes to wait it out until after the election, because there's diminishing time to negotiate and ratify a deal with this Administration, so why agree to painful concessions now and risk the next Administration demanding even more. President sees he's running out of time to force a Chinese surrender and is choosing to keep raising the pressure. The more pressure from the US, the less China can surrender (lose face etc). So China is being forced to match with trade retaliation and currency devaluation. The collateral economic damage is forcing central banks around the world to cut rates, adding to pressure on the Fed to cut rates. The trade war mentality is spreading, with Brexit and now Japan/Korea. So one way this can go is for the world economy to go into recession, with trade wars and tariffs high, but the Fed and other central banks having already cut rates as much as they can. At that point, the Fed will have very limited ability to apply more monetary stimulus by cutting rates. The budget deficit will be over $2 trillion/year, meaning very limited ability to apply fiscal stimulus. US companies are carrying the highest debt loads in history. US consumer debt is rising and savings are thin. The Fed will be forced to apply monetary stimulus by buying bonds, hence the risk of negative US yields. Not a good direction. Obviously this doesn't mean the stock market goes straight down from here. There will probably be more mini rallies and pullbacks before the "main act". So there are trading opportunities. But overall I think stock exposure should be on the lower side and getting trimmed with each mini-rally. Don't want to over-estimate how cleverly one can time trades. From Jan 2018 highs to July 2019 highs, SP500 was up +5%, which is just +3% annualized. But during that time the SP500 had two -7% falls and a -20% fall. The ratio of return to risk (volatility) is deteriorating. And just eyeballing the chart, the time between falls seems to be getting shorter. Look like something that merits over-exposure?
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1989 3.2 Carrera coupe; 1988 Westy Vanagon, Zetec; 1986 E28 M30; 1994 W124; 2004 S211 What? Uh . . . “he” and “him”? Last edited by jyl; 08-08-2019 at 10:03 AM.. |
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08-08-2019, 09:42 AM
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Join Date: Apr 2002
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Wow...thank you John!
You must get better party talking points than any of the bozos on TV that I don't watch
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08-08-2019, 10:34 AM
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Join Date: Apr 2002
Posts: 30,414
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The S has HTF ....
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08-08-2019, 10:41 AM
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AutoBahned
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except at entertainment I would ever try to alter equity to bond - cash positions all in a single year if something happens big & quick (2008) just rely on your shock absorbers |
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08-08-2019, 02:07 PM
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Registered
Join Date: May 2017
Posts: 15,530
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08-08-2019, 02:20 PM
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1989 Porsche 911 Carrera 3.2
