EV article, scary

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by Danimal16

Are you assuming that there is excess grid capacity at night?

There is.

[GH85Carrera]

And at night the wind usually dies down, so the wind turbines don't make as much power and solar is off line. Wind power is now about 20% of the power in six states: Kansas, Iowa, Oklahoma, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Maine.

We are going to need a lot more substations in neighborhoods.

[Mahler9th]

Follow the money:

https://techau.com.au/daimler-inc-mercedes-benz-is-ending-ice-developement-going-full-electric/

[Mahler9th]

I am now 0.5 degrees from all of the business people that are involved in this transformation... and moving closer. This includes the advance people and management from all major auto manufacturers, and the related suppliers and industries (energy, power, et cetera).

Whether things are happening/will happen faster than expected or slower depends on perspective.

I met this gentleman recently-- he was part of a panel at a free meeting near Stanford.

Blog – Silicon Valley Mobility

[Mahler9th]

Three things are certain:

1. Enormous amounts of money are being invested and it is no secret. And invested by smart people. And likely all of the major players have already told us how their R&D $$$pends are evolving...

Many of these players have recognized (and disclosed in one way or another) for a while that they are facing existential threats, and there is massive scrambling going on

2. The economic world involved with ICE machines already ion service will change... this will likely effect ICE disposables (like fuel and oil and even things like spark plugs) and spares (as in parts) and as that demand goes down, availability will too and ... prices will go up??

I predict by 2022 a sharp high schooler can predict those curves...

3. The future value of my '75 911 will be affected by whether folks have interest in paying for it... if it costs 2-3x more $$ to run in five years... well maybe it should get an electric drive train. WHo are these folks... tail end of baby boomers? I reckon not.

[Mahler9th]

I posted this in another thread:

https://www.autoblog.com/2020/01/29/bosch-profit-world-car-production/

Of course you all know that Bosch is a top tier supplier....

SHAKEUP? depends on your perspective and the definitions you use.

[masraum]

Interesting stuff, Mike. Thanks for your perspective.

[KNS]

Originally Posted by David

It would take 25% more electricity than we use today to replace all the gasoline cars on the road in the US today. That doesn't mean we need 25% more power plants, it means we just need to charge the majority of the cars at night when power demand is the lowest. Fortunately that's when most people need to charge their car.

I think it depends on what region of the country you're in. In places like Phoenix, Tucson and Las Vegas, etc, air conditioners are running 24/7 in the summer time.

[pwd72s]

Judging by enthusiast posting boards, and in the right now, I can assure you that Mustang enthusiasts aren't rushing to buy the new Ford EV mini sports ute labeled Mustang.

[MysticLlama]

Originally Posted by GH85Carrera

If they started building electrical power plants right now they could not get enough electricity and a grid to power the cars on the road if all cars are electric in 10 years.

I haven't read the whole thread yet, but this is the first thing I'd like to respond to.

According to my last power bill, I used 5,244 kWh in the past two months.

This is LESS than when we first bought the house 10 years ago.

The heat pump and water heater were replaced, the lighting changed mostly to LED, and the PCs/TVs/etc. all take a fraction of the power they did in the past. The car has basically brought it back to about what it was and is a little less than 20% of the overall power use.

I drive about 22 miles each way to work in heavy traffic, use my heater whenever I want, stomp on it regularly, etc.

If I were to add solar it would more than negate the car, but it's already no more load on the grid than it was 20 years ago in this situation.

[Mahler9th]

"Judging by enthusiast posting boards, and in the right now, I can assure you that Mustang enthusiasts aren't rushing to buy the new Ford EV mini sports ute labeled Mustang."

Do you think that Ford is so messed up that they made this huge mistake?

They may be... but again, they are facing existential threat. I have not yet finished spooling up, but I think the F150 may be one of the top selling vehicles in the US... maybe the world.

https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2019/04/24/rivian-500-million-investment-ford.html

There is a lot at stake... and there will be many mistakes.

Any smart energy company is already involved in planning for this future... I have already met a few folks from that space. Everyone is scrambling... planning... tryin' to plan their paths forward.

And it is all based upon $$$$.

AND ALL OF THIS WILL CREATE BOTH ANGST AND OPPORTUNITIES TO MAKE MONEY.

[Bill Douglas]

Originally Posted by Mahler9th

1. Enormous amounts of money are being invested and it is no secret. And invested by smart people.

Thank you, very kind words. but I did lose the lot (https://www.reuters.com/companies/LTHUQ.PK).

[MysticLlama]

To add to the solar thing, yes, it's too expensive currently and takes a bit over 10 years to break even. Once it hits that breakeven point, I'll put in a 20 year warrantied system.

As more solar and more batteries get deployed the cost goes down, as time goes on and more cars make the grid work harder, the cost for electricity goes up, there is a balance point in there somewhere.

[Mahler9th]

Haven't studied the battery side yet. I am looking forward to learning more about batt tech.

As an aside, the Tesla VP that apparently was instrumental in the gigafactory deal(s) left Tesla a while back.

I heard him speak a couple of times at college alumni events (our time at Dartmouth overlapped). Very, very smart guy.

[BE911SC]

I wonder if horse traders panicked when the automobile was invented?

[flipper35]

Originally Posted by biosurfer1

Why are you comparing new EV prices to 2001 Dodge minivans?

There are hundreds of used EV's on Craigslist right now for less than $5000.

Yes, but that gas tank in the minivan does not lose capacity over the years eventually needing replacement.

[GH85Carrera]

Originally Posted by MysticLlama

I haven't read the whole thread yet, but this is the first thing I'd like to respond to.

According to my last power bill, I used 5,244 kWh in the past two months.

This is LESS than when we first bought the house 10 years ago.

The heat pump and water heater were replaced, the lighting changed mostly to LED, and the PCs/TVs/etc. all take a fraction of the power they did in the past. The car has basically brought it back to about what it was and is a little less than 20% of the overall power use.

I drive about 22 miles each way to work in heavy traffic, use my heater whenever I want, stomp on it regularly, etc.

If I were to add solar it would more than negate the car, but it's already no more load on the grid than it was 20 years ago in this situation.

OK, that is good to hear. But the electrical grid is often maxed out in summer high demand times. TVs and appliances are more efficient, but now everyone in the family has a smart phone with a charger likely plugged in all the time. Most house have multiple TVs, security cameras, internet connected thermostats, and fridges.

No doubt people lost smarter than us are working on it.

[Mahler9th]

I only started on this journey in Q4 2019. One thing that got my immediate attention was mentioned to me as I was enjoying a happy hour drink with some new colleagues-- tech and venture capital folks highly active and connected in the space.

He made reference to "buggy whips."

What would you do if 90% of your global revenues were derived from spark plugs? Panic? Plan your demise?

[MysticLlama]

Summer needs are quite location dependent. In Seattle, we run our A/C, but it takes far less power than somewhere farther south, heating needs in the winter are much higher. The car is also more efficient in the summer time, I use 15kwh commuting vs 22.5ish.

Of course, in the summer we have less hydro potential depending on rainfall, but a lot more solar. No one thing is or should be the answer.

[pwd72s]

Considering my age and medical issues, I'm not overly worried about the future.