EV article, scary

[pmax]

Originally Posted by Bill Douglas

Thank you, very kind words. but I did lose the lot (https://www.reuters.com/companies/LTHUQ.PK).

Smart folks

[masraum]

Originally Posted by KNS

I think it depends on what region of the country you're in. In places like Phoenix, Tucson and Las Vegas, etc, air conditioners are running 24/7 in the summer time.

Texas, Lousiana, Mississippi and Florida are also hot at night in the summer, but it is cooler at night and so the grid has less load than during the day. The system can provide full power on a hot day which means if it's cooler with less radiant heat (like at night) then it's got more capacity.

[masraum]

Originally Posted by pwd72s

Judging by enthusiast posting boards, and in the right now, I can assure you that Mustang enthusiasts aren't rushing to buy the new Ford EV mini sports ute labeled Mustang.

Which is the most ridiculous thing I've heard in a while, possibly even more ridiculous as calling an EV a turbo.

[Deschodt]

Disagree with the conclusion...

EVs require home charging to be convenient (infrastructure of charging stations is not ready and won't be ready in 10y either the way we aren't even fixing potholes), and not everyone has a home.

The grid is not ready, and we still make too much electricity out of dirty means. We should push nuclear but it's a dirty word since Fukushima... I you doubt that, I just lived through PG&E shutdowns of the grid, and I live 17 mi from silicon valley - our grid is an embarassment.

Crap gas cars may eventually become obsolete with the well off, not so much with the poor I'm guessing, but not cool ones, not the ones that go VROOM with a V12 or a flat 6 - they'll be prized possessions from a time when cars were fun and smelled good and you had to drive them, just like horses did not disappear from the planet when cars picked up. It'll take a lot more than 10y to get there IMO, and pretty radical infrastructure changes - I mean, we were supposed to be in flying cars every decade since the 60s ;-)

PS: I own an E-golf - love it. And a 991, because sometimes I need to go further, faster, funner.

[Mahler9th]

Haven't read the report mentioned by the OP. So I cannot comment on any conclusions.

I am sure there are many prognosticators. Probably more of that going on in tech right now than at any time in human history.

Some bets will be right, some will be wrong. Some will be in between.

Solyndra... makes me laugh. I live 10 minutes from there. I remember running into a small tech team from there years ago at the local indoor go track business that is right nearby (owned by a car guy/Porschephile just like some of us).

It was "interesting" to speak with them.

Not all companies are well managed, and not all bets pay off.

I can say this: the network of business and technical professionals that I am learning about/meeting/engaging with are mostly many years into their learnings, experiences, strategies and tactics in the future of mobility. Pretty way out in front in most cases.

As you'd expect.

Haven't yet looked at the infrastructure side of the equation, but it seems very clear that a lot is going on... its like a freight train.

The broader, related tech storm/tech disruption may be like the coming of indoor plumbing, electricity, personal computing, the automobile, the airplane, internet and on and on...

all happening at once and much faster than any of those things happened.

And on top of that, younger folks may have "much to say" based on what they buy, or want to buy and cannot afford, et cetera. And in the mobility space, how they want to get around.

[Mahler9th]

https://www.jobyaviation.com/

Look at their team picture... lots of those down jackets and vests that are all therage. Patagonia likely did not plan that.

Look at their job reqs!

Burning through those venture dollars!

[MysticLlama]

Originally Posted by Deschodt

Disagree with the conclusion...

EVs require home charging to be convenient (infrastructure of charging stations is not ready and won't be ready in 10y either the way we aren't even fixing potholes), and not everyone has a home.

This is totally correct. Had a friend really set on a Tesla, but had no where to charge it. Using public charging stations only, or hoping to get on of the few stalls at her office on a regular basis would get really old, really fast.

The only somewhat reasonable solution for people that don't have home charging is enough charging stalls at work to always get one, and enough scattered at Target, HD, clusters of restaurants, etc. where finding one and killing time could end up being a normal part of routine.

While some people do it, at least for now, if you can't charge at home, I wouldn't bother.

Also, the 500% rate hike by the Ionity charging network in Europe makes it more expensive than a petrol car, and until there is some better competition/regulation, that could hit you at any time if you're reliant on 3rd party infrastructure.

https://electrek.co/2020/01/17/ionity-increases-electric-vehicle-charging-prices-500-percent-january-31/

[RWebb]

weird that the OP did not post a link...

1. cult cars are not going away - even things like VW bugs & buses, much less 911s and Fcars

2. the grid needs to be updated anyway

3. more EVs means less air pollution, hence less of a legal 'impetus' to restrict IC engined cars

4. I look forward to a GT hybrid car that uses an engine on the top end and an E motor for low end grunt - requires less battery than a pure EV and will weigh less; tho good as a GT will not sub for a true lightwt. sports car

[Danimal16]

Originally Posted by masraum

David works for a major producer. He's not really assuming anything, I don't think.

But yes, most of the time, far less electricity is used at night than during the day.

That's why you find a lot of electric companies advertising free nights and that sort of thing. Not only is there less demand at night, but it's actually cheaper at night too.

Yes, I worked in wet utilities for over 30 years as well. The reason I bring this up is because there is an industrial demand for pumping water and treating water and waste water. SO the current off peak periods are already in demand, but by how much? It is not as if the off peak capacity is just sitting there waiting to be called.

[Danimal16]

Originally Posted by Sooner or later

There is.

How much?

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by Danimal16

How much?

I don't know.

Enough that utilities give lower rates during off peak hours. They do that fo get customers to transfer tasks from peak to low usage times so that peak hours don't grow and require additional capacity.

[David]

Originally Posted by GH85Carrera

And at night the wind usually dies down, so the wind turbines don't make as much power and solar is off line. Wind power is now about 20% of the power in six states: Kansas, Iowa, Oklahoma, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Maine.

We are going to need a lot more substations in neighborhoods.

In Texas, wind power peaks at night. And the wind power swing from night to day is huge.

Of course solar peaks during the day which is when it's needed most so win-win. Texas is no where near where it could be for solar so the next few years will see a lot of solar growth here.

The one thing wind and solar need is something to handle the swings due to weather. What better way than to plug in millions of mobile batteries around the grid.

[Sooner or later]

This is from EIA

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by David

In Texas, wind power peaks at night. And the wind power swing from night to day is huge.

Of course solar peaks during the day which is when it's needed most so win-win. Texas is no where near where it could be for solar so the next few years will see a lot of solar growth here.

The one thing wind and solar need is something to handle the swings due to weather. What better way than to plug in millions of mobile batteries around the grid.

I don't care for the mobile battery idea unless it is voluntary.

[David]

Originally Posted by KNS

I think it depends on what region of the country you're in. In places like Phoenix, Tucson and Las Vegas, etc, air conditioners are running 24/7 in the summer time.

I think Houston has all those areas beat. There it's hot but here here it's hot and humid so the A/C loads are much greater. The difference in load in Houston between 5pm peak when everyone comes home and turns on their A/C and 2am when things cool off is more power than most big cities use at their peak load.

[wdfifteen]

Originally Posted by David

The one thing wind and solar need is something to handle the swings due to weather. What better way than to plug in millions of mobile batteries around the grid.

I had not thought of that. It may not be the best way, but it is storage.

I can see some cities banning ICE within 10 years to get rid of noise and distribute the pollution, but there is no way every passenger car is going to be electric in 10 years.

[David]

Originally Posted by Sooner or later

I don't care for the mobile battery idea unless it is voluntary.

I haven't heard anything mainstream about it but it makes perfect sense. What if your car was charging at 10 cents per kwh but you were offered 30 cents or more per kwh to sell power back to grid in small amounts while plugged in. It likely wouldn't even be enough to notice you weren't charging but it would be enough to add stability to the grid and also prevent brown outs during extreme peaks.

[Danimal16]

Originally Posted by Sooner or later

I don't know.

Enough that utilities give lower rates during off peak hours. They do that fo get customers to transfer tasks from peak to low usage times so that peak hours don't grow and require additional capacity.

Yes, they have been doing that for decades. I have seen the past predictions and am always apprehensive. Hybrids are a proven technology, thanks in large part to digital controls and the significant new effeciencies in motor manufacturing (occurred about 20 years ago). But I am not convinced that the entire logistics, cradle to grave, of all electric cars has been honestly revealed.

Also, think about it regarding future rates. Once you have a dependency on current off peak capacity there is no reason in the world for reduced rates, there is no longer a need for "off-peak" incentives. You now are tearing the gear up 24/7 as you use up the capacity to charge cars. There will no longer be off peak periods. Your rates will go up. Just look at the history of reclaimed water rates in the west as an example.

For example, and the data may have changed, but at one time the dirty little secret of home solar was the life of the inverter units. The best life for these at the time we looked at an install was 9 to 10 years. That replacement of that major component on a 20 -27 year ROI made unsubsidized systems were not cost effective. In other words you would never see a return on the capital. Now that may have changed, but I have not heard of any major improvements in inverter technology since we considered them for water treatment and large water pumping plants. Once you factor in the subsidies, they pencil out.

Grid reliability has now also become a huge issue, just look to my home state, California. This is not a simple solution. Hybrids, yes, all electric in 2 to 10 years, nope.

[Danimal16]

Originally Posted by David

In Texas, wind power peaks at night. And the wind power swing from night to day is huge.

Of course solar peaks during the day which is when it's needed most so win-win. Texas is no where near where it could be for solar so the next few years will see a lot of solar growth here.

The one thing wind and solar need is something to handle the swings due to weather. What better way than to plug in millions of mobile batteries around the grid.

But and it is a big but, conventional fossil fueled plants on a total life cycle cost are way cheaper and more reliable. As you attempt to rely more on "green" sources, every analysis I saw was killed by the need for huge amounts of land (when compared to conventional plants) and there is a significant increase in the need for more transmission and distribution (more wide spread sites). Green power generation is the glamor part of the systems, but transmission and distribution is the nuts and bolts. That is why they call them backbone.

I am not saying that the future may address these things, but not in 2 to 12 years. I have heard stories like this all my life. Yes there have been improvements, but not like these guys are predicting. Caution is the better part of valor.


I remember when the rage was reverse running turbines in water distribution systems. The capital cost for those applications never penciled out during the analysis and the pilot projects showed the analysis was over stated. The French pushed these and I am not sure if they are widely used to this day, but it sure did not deliver as predicted.

[Danimal16]

Originally Posted by Sooner or later

This is from EIA

What does it look like for other areas of the Country? Huge amounts of grid electricity goes to pumping water in the west.

What is different now is there is a targeted use for that peak to charge electric cars. Let us say that the excess capacity is now used for that purpose. The value of that energy increases and it no longer is "off peak". Increase in demand, increase in rates.