Question for the smart people about Cornavirus...

[Wayne 962]

Need more smart people for this thread as well: http://forums.pelicanparts.com/off-topic-discussions/1055231-challenge-pelican-engineering-lets-design-build-open-source-ventilator.html

-Wayne

[RWebb]

That's with no efforts to stop it.

I suspect the # deaths will be far lower.

[Wayne 962]

The same doctor I spoke with this morning just called me. I just wrote an email to a friend, cut-and-paste:

Just got off the phone with my friend who is a doctor at a hospital in Norwalk. He says it’s eerily empty in there. It’s like the part when the ocean recedes back, right before the tsunami hits. There are no masks or protective gear available. Despite what you hear on the news, there are no tests available – he said the hospital is allocated 30 per day. He’s heard that there has been an uptick in crime surrounding one of the partner hospitals nearer to downtown. He also said this “it only affects old people” stuff is untrue – the old people just die quicker. He’s hearing about younger people that can’t kick this and then they take about 1-2 months to die. So, all of those people that are sick in Asia that haven’t died or recovered, he thinks the death rate will go up when the dust settles. 20% of the patients who get this need to be hospitalized – he thinks it could overrun the hospitals in a matter of days. He said that he expected a full shutdown of NYC no later than Friday, and Los Angeles soon too. When I got off the phone, I called someone else, and they told me that while I was on the phone, Orange County shut down every business. My doctor friend said that Mnuchin mentioned there could be 20% unemployment by the end of the year due to this.

[DanielDudley]

Here. Read this earlier today. Guy is good with numbers.


https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

[island911]

Originally Posted by DanielDudley

Here. Read this earlier today. Guy is good with numbers.


https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

Nice basic math models, but where's the math on the COST of massive social distancing?

[Nader]

Originally Posted by Wayne 962

The same doctor I spoke with this morning just called me. I just wrote an email to a friend, cut-and-paste:

Just got off the phone with my friend who is a doctor at a hospital in Norwalk. He says it’s eerily empty in there. It’s like the part when the ocean recedes back, right before the tsunami hits. There are no masks or protective gear available. Despite what you hear on the news, there are no tests available – he said the hospital is allocated 30 per day. He’s heard that there has been an uptick in crime surrounding one of the partner hospitals nearer to downtown. He also said this “it only affects old people” stuff is untrue – the old people just die quicker. He’s hearing about younger people that can’t kick this and then they take about 1-2 months to die. So, all of those people that are sick in Asia that haven’t died or recovered, he thinks the death rate will go up when the dust settles. 20% of the patience who get this need to be hospitalized – he thinks it could overrun the hospitals in a matter of days. He said that he expected a full shutdown of NYC no later than Friday, and Los Angeles soon too. When I got off the phone, I called someone else, and they told me that while I was on the phone, Orange County shut down every business. My doctor friend said that Mnuchin mentioned there could be 20% unemployment by the end of the year due to this.

I agree with the last half of this, about younger patients getting sick, but not dying yet. (I'm a hospital physician, have seen this up close at the "epicenter").

[HardDrive]

Originally Posted by island911

Nice basic math models, but where's the math on the COST of massive social distancing?

Who give a hoot?

[island911]

People who will become jobless and then homeless might care.

[RWebb]

and so will those who live in proximity to them (i.e. about everybody)


but a huge death rate will have very strong effects economically

we also avoid balancing $$ saved with deaths (except for insurance companies)

[pmax]

Originally Posted by sc_rufctr

Great news but I didn't know they had a house in Australia. Damn Yanks.

Case of the 'blahs' ....

Tom Hanks says he has the 'blahs' but no fever in isolation

Tom Hanks says he has the “blahs" but no fever as he and his wife Rita Wilson remain in isolation after contracting the coronavirus

https://abcnews.go.com/Entertainment/wireStory/tom-hanks-blahs-fever-isolation-69659139

[Crowbob]

Thank you for the info, Wayne.

Unfortunately, as some have suggested, it looks like much more is known about this virus than was being let out. I'm thinking at some point not long ago, either disseminated purposefully or by surreptitious leak, the Chinese advised the outside world that this virus needs to be contained no matter the cost.

[flatbutt]

Originally Posted by RWebb

and so will those who live in proximity to them (i.e. about everybody)


but a huge death rate will have very strong effects economically

we also avoid balancing $$ saved with deaths (except for insurance companies)

a better job market?....too soon? I really need to step away from all of this.

[craigster59]

Interesting article on China's entrance into the Level 4 Bio-Lab market. As with everything made in China, cheaper is not necessarily better....

https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487

[Crowbob]

From link above:

“But worries surround the Chinese lab, too. The SARS virus has escaped from high-level containment facilities in Beijing multiple times, notes Richard Ebright, a molecular biologist at Rutgers University in Piscataway, New Jersey. Tim Trevan, founder of CHROME Biosafety and Biosecurity Consulting in Damascus, Maryland, says that an open culture is important to keeping BSL-4 labs safe, and he questions how easy this will be in China, where society emphasizes hierarchy. “Diversity of viewpoint, flat structures where everyone feels free to speak up and openness of information are important,” he says.”

[sugarwood]

Yes, yes it will.

[aigel]

Wayne and Friends:

Please refer to the main thread on the virus here, where I posted a new article that lays out how this can be done. The term Hammer and Dance ... it is a bit of a read, but well worth it!

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/off-topic-discussions/1050915-corona-virus-no-joke-53.html#post10792543

Cheers,

G