Question for the smart people about Cornavirus...

[aigel]

I have the same question Wayne asked and I asked it in the longest CV thread going.

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/off-topic-discussions/1050915-corona-virus-no-joke-82.html#post10785820

Nobody has answered it. Unless we can consistently have R0 < 1, I don't see how it doesn't flare up again. A vaccine will do it (1+ year out) or maybe it mutates to a milder strain that gets everyone immune without taking out as many people.

I am afraid we will be in some sort of lock down for the next 1.5 years or until everyone has had it.

G

[pmax]

Looks like Hanks and wife gonna make it.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/16/entertainment/tom-hanks-rita-wilson-released-hospital-coronavirus/index.html

[Wayne 962]

Originally Posted by stomachmonkey

These models help to explain it visually.

Scroll down for different models ranged by isolation.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

BTW, those models are not static animations, the movements of the infected are random every time you rerun a model.

And for those who keep trotting out comparisons to the common flu, which we generally have a vaccine for and ~50% of the population gets, that vaccinated population replaces socially isolated people in these models.

That is an entertaining and colorful demonstration, but at first glance, I see a lot of problems with it. Firstly, the social distancing means that some people will isolate themselves from getting it (like we are at home - no contact with *anyone*). Secondly, all of the simulations end and/or assume that 100% of the population will get it. If that is the case, then it's the worst-case scenario, which is somewhere on the order of 500,000 to a million deaths in the United States alone.

The models and colorful dancing balls could be more accurate if a bunch of them turned black, indicating deaths. Or red, indicating ICU beds occupied. In addition, it's not yet known that recovery = immunity. There have been suggestions (mostly criticizing the UK approach of looking for "herd immunity") that people who have recovered from this virus may be susceptible to it again during the "second wave."

A bit unnerving - no one knows or has any real clue right now. I guess it could be much worse, it could kill 10%-50% like some of the other viruses have...

-Wayne

[sc_rufctr]

Using logic only: Soon after China reopens for business they will get a rush of new cases so it's only a matter of time for this thing to run its course. That means a lot of people will get it and unfortunately a lot of people will perish world wide as a consequence.

Some estimates are as high as 60,000,000 deaths world wide. That's a bit less than WW2's total.

I don't even know how to respond to that figure.

Originally Posted by 911boost

On a side not virus related note, I have been on a Miami Vice kick lately and in Season 2 Episode 17 there is not only a Porsche 906 but also a 962. Is that your car Wayne?

This is what I could find on it out of curiosity:
Danny's racing car in the episode was a real Porsche 962-HR1 race car that won the IMSA GT Championship three times from 1985 to 1987. It was sponsored by Lowenbrau beer; Danny can be seen drinking Lowenbrau at the cocktail party.

[Wayne 962]

Originally Posted by 911boost

On a side not virus related note, I have been on a Miami Vice kick lately and in Season 2 Episode 17 there is not only a Porsche 906 but also a 962. Is that your car Wayne?

This is what I could find on it out of curiosity:
Danny's racing car in the episode was a real Porsche 962-HR1 race car that won the IMSA GT Championship three times from 1985 to 1987. It was sponsored by Lowenbrau beer; Danny can be seen drinking Lowenbrau at the cocktail party.

Yes, that's correct. I believe that the guy who restores my cars was at the race - I think I remember him talking about it. The car that we have (962-121) came in 2nd in the Miami Gran Prix (where that episode was shot, I believe). The Holbert car, HR-1 came in fourth.

I don't know who owns the 906, but I do know that it would be very difficult to stop, open the passenger door, shove a dead hooker out, and then drive away.

-Wayne

[sc_rufctr]

Originally Posted by pmax

Looks like Hanks and wife gonna make it.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/16/entertainment/tom-hanks-rita-wilson-released-hospital-coronavirus/index.html

Great news but I didn't know they had a house in Australia. Damn Yanks.

[Wayne 962]

I think this is also from the episode before. This one is ours, we're restoring it in the UK right now...

https://www.imcdb.org/v054829.html



-Wayne

[Crowbob]

Originally Posted by Tobra

Something to keep in mind, the Chinese have not been truthful all along. Why would they start telling the truth now? Common cold is a corona virus. You can get common colds over and over again. Why would this be different?...

It is my understanding that the common cold is actually around 200 permutations of the same virus. To each of which you actually develop an immunity (if you are not immunocompromised). So, if you got 4 ‘colds’ per year from day one, by age 50 you wouldn’t get any more.

I’ve got about 130 more to go.

Woohoo!

[cabmandone]

Originally Posted by stomachmonkey

We will all get it eventually, the math says at least 80% of us, that's the bottom number.

If we take this years flu numbers, 36M reported cases so far.

That's ~10%+ of the population.

~50% of the population gets vaccinated meaning the real number of infected is 20% of the unvaccinated population.

The 36M number is an estimate based on reported cases.

Flu severity ranges from a mild annoyance to you die from it.

How many people who get the flu see a Dr?

1/1, 1/2, 1/3, 1/4?

1/3 seems reasonable.

That makes the 36M number 108M

~80% of the unvaccinated population on the low side, ~95% on the high side.

There is currently no vaccine for Covid.

We are all getting this.

Just wondering, why do you appear to imply that being vaccinated = not getting the flu? That's not even remotely the case. You can be vaccinated and still get the same flu strain you were vaccinated against.

As for "we're all getting this"... I don't see that as being reality.


Wayne to your question, I'd like to see someone chime in with some expertise in this area. It doesn't make much sense to me either.

[stomachmonkey]

Originally Posted by Wayne 962

That is an entertaining and colorful demonstration, but at first glance, I see a lot of problems with it. Firstly, the social distancing means that some people will isolate themselves from getting it (like we are at home - no contact with *anyone*). Secondly, all of the simulations end and/or assume that 100% of the population will get it. If that is the case, then it's the worst-case scenario, which is somewhere on the order of 500,000 to a million deaths in the United States alone.

The models and colorful dancing balls could be more accurate if a bunch of them turned black, indicating deaths. Or red, indicating ICU beds occupied. In addition, it's not yet known that recovery = immunity. There have been suggestions (mostly criticizing the UK approach of looking for "herd immunity") that people who have recovered from this virus may be susceptible to it again during the "second wave."

A bit unnerving - no one knows or has any real clue right now. I guess it could be much worse, it could kill 10%-50% like some of the other viruses have...

-Wayne

Nothing wrong with those models, they show what they are intended to show.

How isolation measures impact the speed of spread in a given population.

That’s it.

As far as assumptions, unless someone comes up with a vaccine tomorrow we are all getting this, it’s going to be close to 100% infection rate.

The only thing we can do right now is to try and stretch it out so our healthcare resources don’t get overwhelmed which is all the models are illustrating.

[Tobra]

Bob, those different permutations are virus that mutated, like this will undoubtedly do.

I would be surprised if 25% of the folks that get the flu actually go to the doctor, probably less than that.

[sammyg2]

Where's the dumb people thread?
I checked and didn't see it, trying to be patient.

[stomachmonkey]

Originally Posted by cabmando

Just wondering, why do you appear to imply that being vaccinated = not getting the flu? That's not even remotely the case. You can be vaccinated and still get the same flu strain you were vaccinated against.

As for "we're all getting this"... I don't see that as being reality.


Wayne to your question, I'd like to see someone chime in with some expertise in this area. It doesn't make much sense to me either.

Well, yes, you can get the flu shot and still get the flu.

Does being unvaccinated give you better immunity?

No.

Like this, avoiding exposure to the flu is a valid response.

General incubation for the flu is 1-4 days.

People who get the flu tend to self isolate pretty much right away.

This thing has a 5-12 incubation time meaning an infected individual may be out in public spreading it for far more time.

If someone with the flu infects 10 others per day before they self isolate they’ve infected 10-40 vs someone with covid who would have infected 50-120 before they isolated.

It’s one of the reasons this thing can go off the charts faster than the average flu.

[GG Allin]

The safe bet is to not believe a word coming out of China.

[Chocaholic]

Amazing how the fear mongering is consumed and regurgitated. We’re all going to get it? Please, think for a minute. There are a billion+ people in China living in densely packed communities. 90k cases after all this time and the # is declining. A bit of math will tell you that it is easily contained.

The Fauci doom and gloom is from the mouth of a paid fear monger. In my humble opinion, there is only one benefit from all the insane hype. Processes and responsiveness procedures are being made that can be useful in the event of such a scenario with a seriously dangerous pathogen. That’s it.

If people would simply live their lives and use a bit of logic and common sense, well....so much for that.

Now, go buy toilet paper!

[Cajundaddy]

Here is a good discussion of the math involved.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg

It doesn't appear that "we are all going to get it" in this 1st season at least, but 20% might and that is a very big number. We have more control over the spread than we think and it's closest biological relative SARS CoV-1 2003 was contained at 8000 cases. We are far beyond that now but the process of containment is the same and the sooner we get below an infection rate of 1, the sooner this thing becomes self limiting.

[sammyg2]

Originally Posted by Chocaholic

Amazing how the fear mongering is consumed and regurgitated. We’re all going to get it? Please, think for a minute. There are a billion+ people in China living in densely packed communities. 90k cases after all this time and the # is declining. A bit of math will tell you that it is easily contained.

The Fauci doom and gloom is from the mouth of a paid fear monger. In my humble opinion, there is only one benefit from all the insane hype. Processes and responsiveness procedures are being made that can be useful in the event of such a scenario with a seriously dangerous pathogen. That’s it.

If people would simply live their lives and use a bit of logic and common sense, well....so much for that.

Now, go buy toilet paper!

It's more fun to be irrational, emotional train-wrecks than to be logical.
Hens gotta cackle.

[Instrument 41]

What I would like to know is how will it be determined that this peak in the virus number will be flattened. Once we see that begin to flatten then the number of restrictions, or recommendations...., will be relaxed.

[911boost]

That’s very cool Wayne!

[Tobra]

Originally Posted by stomachmonkey

People who get the flu tend to self isolate pretty much right away.

What makes you say this?