The Re-Opening Plan

[dafischer]

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6

The gambit is sacrificing the short term so that the long term isn't apocalyptic. The framers of the plan put in place believe that the actions taken now will halt widespread contagion and high mortality rates leading to actual economic meltdown, not some milquetoast slowdown that we'll recover from just fine.

Wait until the governor of Massachusetts decides that a vintage Porsche restoration shop is not an essential business and is ordered to close.

[rattlsnak]

Saw on BBC this morning.. Top researchers have concluded that there is only 3 ways out of the mess.

1. Keep the world on lockdown for a min 6 months..

2. Make a vaccine.. 12-18 months before widely available.

3. Humans will eventually become immune to it. 2- 3 years.

[rusnak]

If this was 30 years ago, my mom would say "I hear little Beto a few blocks away has the virus. Why don't you go over to his house and play?".

The rationale back then was get "it" now so you don't catch it as an adult.....


The problem with long term planning is that if you die in the short-term, then you still have failure. The price paid in the short term is only adding to the inevitable costs. The longer quarantine drags out, the long term gain will fall short of short term failure.

At some point, we're going to have to go back to business and damn the torpedos full steam ahead. Quarantine won't stop it. It will only "flatten out" the curve. Those who will die will eventually die, just longer into the future.

[nvr2mny]

As a “non-essential” (to whom?) business owner, the 450 team members I’m laying off come Monday will have their world rocked. If this takes months to figure out there won’t be any small businesses left to reopen.

[pmax]

Lots of job openings in the basic food and delivery industries for out of job waiters, bartenders etc.

Tried ordering some groceries on line today from Amazon/Whole Foods and found there was no delivery window.
None. Not even an option to wait for one. I can see them and others ramping up big time on their delivery game.

Walmart Inc. said this week it plans to hire 150,000 new workers. The retailer also said it would give full-time employees who are paid hourly a bonus of $300 each, and part-time hourly employees a bonus of $150 on April 2,

Earlier this week, Amazon announced plans to hire 100,000 new employees to handle an influx of e-commerce orders and deliveries as more Americans stay home.

7-Eleven, an international convenience chain with more than 70,000 stores, announced Friday it will be hiring as many as 20,000 store employees.

Kroger is hiring 10,000 new associates nationwide across retail stores, manufacturing plants and distribution centers,

Safeway, a national grocery chain, is looking to fill 2,000 new jobs located mainly in California, the San Francisco Chronicle reported.

Trader Joe’s is paying bonuses to store employees amid an “unprecedented increase” in sales due to the coronavirus pandemic, Business Insider reported.

Domino’s Pizza Inc. said Thursday that it’s looking for full-time and part-time workers in a variety of roles, particularly drivers and pizza makers.

This comes as many restaurants and quick-service chains have shifted to takeout, delivery, drive-thru and pick-up only.

CBS MarketWatch

[Chocaholic]

Capitalism is the norm. Shut down is not.

As such, the transition from commerce to shutdown is where the difficulty lies...and for good reason. Not the opposite.

Capitalism...meaning normal societal economics will return as naturally as sunshine. Once the virus has run it’s course, the economy will seek a path to stability. Our ability to traverse the difficult path toward isolation will determine when the gates will reopen.

The doom and gloom here is astounding. Stop watching TV. The actual % of cases resulting in death are minuscule and getting smaller.

[Shaun @ Tru6]

Originally Posted by dafischer

Wait until the governor of Massachusetts decides that a vintage Porsche restoration shop is not an essential business and is ordered to close.

I don't see the police beating down the door of Tru6 World Headquarters while I'm working; may have assistants stay home. And given that these frames were delivered 1 year ago and I'm just finishing them up, I've got a little bit of a backlog to work through.

[cabmandone]

Originally Posted by rusnak

If this was 30 years ago, my mom would say "I hear little Beto a few blocks away has the virus. Why don't you go over to his house and play?".

The rationale back then was get "it" now so you don't catch it as an adult.....


The problem with long term planning is that if you die in the short-term, then you still have failure. The price paid in the short term is only adding to the inevitable costs. The longer quarantine drags out, the long term gain will fall short of short term failure.

At some point, we're going to have to go back to business and damn the torpedos full steam ahead. Quarantine won't stop it. It will only "flatten out" the curve. Those who will die will eventually die, just longer into the future.

Ain't that the truth? I can remember my mom letting me play with a kid that had chicken pox. Turns out that wasn't such a great move since Shingles is tied to having chicken pox. Oh well!

[Shaun @ Tru6]

People should have saved more money. That's the lesson I hope is learned from the slowdown.

[cabmandone]

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6

I don't see the police beating down the door of Tru6 World Headquarters while I'm working; may have assistants stay home. And given that these frames were delivered 1 year ago and I'm just finishing them up, I've got a little bit of a backlog to work through.

It's coming Shaun. https://www.wgal.com/article/all-non-life-sustaining-businesses-in-pennsylvania-ordered-to-close-physical-locations-to-stop-coronavirus-spread/31789626#

[Shaun @ Tru6]

Yeah, I'll be working.

[cabmandone]

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6

Yeah, I'll be working.

Scofflaw!! When it finally goes down, I'm turnin ya in!!

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6

People should have saved more money. That's the lesson I hope is learned from the slowdown.

Agree 100% Too many don't adhere to basic things like a rainy day fund. If they did, businesses could shut down for at least 3 months and the government wouldn't need to bail anyone out. But! Kids need a new video game console! Or Momma needs a new Iphone!

[Shaun @ Tru6]

I see 5% to 10% of total workforce out of commission for 30 days. Not a shutdown.

I am MUCH more worried about the insane deficit and debt. That's going to F this country hard in the next 10 years. President (generic) and Congress (again generic) better get their acts together to set this country on a sound fiscal policy. But who am I kidding, we're all waiting for the Friends reboot or next season of The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel. The Roman Empire has nothing on us.

[cabmandone]

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6

I see 5% to 10% of total workforce out of commission for 30 days. Not a shutdown.

I am MUCH more worried about the insane deficit and debt. That's going to F this country hard in the next 10 years. President (generic) and Congress (again generic) better get their acts together to set this country on a sound fiscal policy. But who am I kidding, we're all waiting for the Friends reboot or next season of The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel. The Roman Empire has nothing on us.

Not gonna happen. Not from either party.

[Shaun @ Tru6]

I would just be happy if we weren't employing Keynesian economic policy during a time of prosperity.

[Sooner or later]

I could be far more than 5 or 10%.

All automotive manufacturing and supplier network is shutting down. Hotel, entertainment, and conference shutting down. All airlines at a crawl. Much of general retail shutting down. Restaurants laying off due to no table service. And all the support to all of those businesses have slowing sales.

5 or 10% over a month will be a miracle.

[Shaun @ Tru6]

It could be but this isn't 1965. Between robots and overseas mfg., automotive manufacturing is a shadow of its former self. Hotels, etc. have a lot of rooms or serve a lot of people but don't employ that many people. Spending will be down to be sure but it will bounce back.

I could be completely wrong, I just see a mild slowdown and steady recovery once there is an endgame. And I believe one is close.

[wdfifteen]

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6

I don't see the police beating down the door of Tru6 World Headquarters while I'm working; may have assistants stay home.

I'm sure they'll have more important things to do than break down the doors of one-man shops with no walking-in business.

[Shaun @ Tru6]

It's 3 man actually, but yes, police won't be knocking on my door. Plus I used to give the police Traveler Kids clothing for their kids and shirts for them when I was doing men's for here. They like me a lot.





















M47 Patton front





Back on an XL

[Baz]

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6

People should have saved more money. That's the lesson I hope is learned from the slowdown.

My parents always told us kids to have a 3 month reserve.

Now I'm hearing it should be 6 months.

We have people in all kinds of situations in life so this rule of thumb may not fit for all.

But......I know (from witnessing it in person as a matter of fact) that there are quite a few who have ZERO common sense when it comes to managing their household budget.

It's up to the parents, educators, and peers to mentor our young people into following some kind of provision for emergencies.

You sure won't see it mentioned in the media.....

PS - Nice shirts, Shaun! Wow.....