Covid Stock Purchase Thread

[sammyg2]

Originally Posted by McLovin

Yes. And the market completely ignored it and broke more records going up today.

That tells me we’re seeing a lot of irrational exuberance.

I’ve changed my outlook from yesterday. I think we are going to see another significant drop.

I'm thinking it's already factored in.
Sure we'll see a W shaped recovery, we almost always do.
But unless you're day treading, look at the longer term picture.
it will go back up.
Next week? Next month? next year?

I'm expecting it to recover a little over the next year, maybe 10%. And then gain steam after that.

[93nav]

I agree, there is going to be a lot of bad news coming out. Who knows how the market will react though. I think down big time, but what do I know.

What a lot of people seem to leave out, this is a world wide problem. Possibly still a problem in China even, really hard to tell what is the truth coming out of there. I think Europe may be especially vulnerable.

Even if this blows over in a few months, which it may not, a lot people are going to be out of money and too scared/concerned to go out and mix with others. Think restaurants, bars, planes, and traveling in general.

Originally Posted by Paul T

I always hesitate to make general market predictions, especially when they are saved on the interwebs forever! But, I'll make an exception here. Don't be fooled by the latest rally...stocks really aren't "that" cheap here historically and earnings are going to continue to deteriorate into Q2. Likely we're going to see several NYC style hotspots in the coming weeks with ICU units overwhelmed. Ignoring social distancing in the short term will only exacerbate this. The news in general is not going to be good the next 4-6 weeks, IMO. I would not at all be surprised to see 1800 SPX in the next month or 2. Hope I'm wrong....

[sammyg2]

[McLovin]

^^^
I agree with that and am willing to make a 6 figure stock market bet on it.

[KFC911]

Originally Posted by McLovin

^^^
I agree with that and am willing to make a 6 figure stock market bet on it.

Me too...










eventually

My pot rose from the ashes since you LOL two daze ago....up 35%...whohooooo



.....still down bigly bigly on that

[biosurfer1]

Originally Posted by KC911

Me too...










eventually

My pot rose from the ashes since you LOL two daze ago....up 35%...whohooooo



.....still down bigly bigly on that

This is a good reminder of basic math. A 50% drop then a 50% gain means you're still down a ton!

[KFC911]

I rode all the drops...all in...since the 80s.

Not this ride....nope!

[KFC911]

Originally Posted by biosurfer1

This is a good reminder of basic math. A 50% drop then a 50% gain means you're still down a ton!

Nobody told me there wuz gonna be maf involved...

....and only if ya start out with 4 tons

edited: LOL.....my maf sux

[mgatepi]

Time to revive this thread!

Who is back in?
Buys;
Airlines?
Logistics?
Pharmaceuticals?

[McLovin]

Not me.
IMO the effects of the economic destruction have not even remotely begun.
This market euphoria is highly irrational IMO.
The virus itself will prove to be much less deadly to the vast majority of Americans than was touted.
But the long term economic damage will be much more than is being touted.
Holding cash now and will wait for the big discounts (on real estate and stocks) to come.
It’ll take a while, though. I’m not even looking at the stock market daily anymore.

[McLovin]

Like I said in my first post, I’m mainly a real estate investor.

Huge inventory and discounts ahead:

“Nearly a Third of U.S. Apartment Renters Didn’t Pay April Rent”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/nearly-a-third-of-u-s-renters-didnt-pay-april-rent-11586340000?emailToken=31e7fbd5905b9b4ce4f2f8ffaf2 7dcb2J1DVECmE4G6H5Bfe9e8DgYbGgVv3pgPuSDa6/3bLX4K6PqMb2LDrBeVGTybDLhTVE6kVVSVFiNERlEP+wwolwWX JT97D+d5p4UPe0hlaNMo%3D&reflink=article_email_share

That is a disaster.
Esp. since many/most landlords are highly leveraged with huge monthly nuts.
And many local governments are seizing on “emergency” declarations to suspend constitutional rights and force landlords to become free “public” housing providers.
California courts (not the legislature, but court administrators!) have now unilaterally decreed that no landlord can bring an action to collect rent or evict a tenant until THREE MONTHS AFTER California ends its self declared “state of emergency.”
Who knows when that will be? I’m sure many would want it to never end.
So for at least 4, 5, 6 months the California courts have decreed that landlords are locked out and have no way to assert their contractual rights. No due process of law for you! Some unelected court administrators have seized those rights. Nice.
They are basically telling tenants they don’t need to pay rent throughout the country.

[KFC911]

Nope....or hell nope !

[biosurfer1]

I bought some ADP a couple days ago.

Just happy quite a few of my dividend stocks have reiterated their commitment to keeping the dividends flowing which is all I care about.

[gtc]

Originally Posted by McLovin

Not me.
IMO the effects of the economic destruction have not even remotely begun.
This market euphoria is highly irrational IMO.
The virus itself will prove to be much less deadly to the vast majority of Americans than was touted.
But the long term economic damage will be much more than is being touted.
Holding cash now and will wait for the big discounts (on real estate and stocks) to come.
It’ll take a while, though. I’m not even looking at the stock market daily anymore.

I generally agree with all this. I moved 30% in to cash about a month ago on the way down... wondering if i should sell off some more after these recent gains.

[93nav]

If you have read any of my previous posts, I fully expected the market to crash. Proves what I know. I am still not buying anything. I still expect significant negative economic consequences from this pandemic accross the world. But, what the heck do I know.

[fintstone]

Originally Posted by mgatepi

Time to revive this thread!

Who is back in?
Buys;
Airlines?
Logistics?
Pharmaceuticals?

I was 100% in the DOW/S&P until about a month ago. As the current crisis began, I believed the models/data were exponentially off (and they were)...so I assumed cooler heads would prevail and there would be a small drop in the market. I never expected the mass hysteria/panic we have seen or the shutdown...so at first I held tight. I couldn't buy more (but would have) as I was already fully invested. I had just cashed out about 25% at near the stock market peak and combined that with all my cash to buy an investment/second home for cash. After I lost about 15% percent, I concluded that although the conditions were no worse than I predicted, the panic and resulting shutdown was crazy. I pulled everything out of the market. I went back into the same positions with about 65% of my portfolio and week or so ago when I thought I saw the bottom. I put the rest into a small cap fund late yesterday. I am still down more than I would like, but feeling a lot better about my investments (even though I missed a bit on the way down and seem to have similarly missed a little on the way up (so far). Much like 2008.

As far as my real estate rentals, while I understand that a lot of folks running apartment buildings are not getting rent, so-far, so-good for my single family homes. In fact, the rent has come early for most. I am hoping that renting out homes that are a bit on the higher end in markets with severe shortages of homes will leave me relatively intact there as well. I suspect that a lot of apartment dwellers that did not pay their April rent simply did so because they thought they could make that choice (safety in numbers). Since most initially unemployed will likely end up getting about as much as they made or more (with the extra stimulus money), short term, I don't see that as a problem. If so, I don't expect it to impact my properties or drive rents down much short term for nice single family homes. People have to have a place to live...and renting is still cheaper than buying. It is an election year and no one will lack for money until after November...if the Congress/President have to print it themselves. I got killed on real estate back in 2008 (mostly on my house in Vegas that still has not come all the way back). The rest only saw a little drop and came back quick in value (and rents never dropped). Hopefully, this is over quick enough that it will not have a lasting effect.

[Rawknees'Turbo]

^^^

Nothing to add to this thread as I have not read it (nor will I read it as the subject is of less than zero interest to me), but am glad to see you back in action, FintIsStoned (saw your forum ID as the most recent poster to this thread)!

[fintstone]

Been banned for a month for being mean. Too bad, because I needed an awful lot of Porsche parts during that time.

[Rawknees'Turbo]

Originally Posted by fintstone

Been banned for a month for being mean. Too bad, because I needed an awful lot of Porsche parts during that time.

Ha ha funny!

Ya, I saw the thread where Kachi was taking the well earned Fint-heat, before it was moved to purgatory - had me doubled over with hilarity!

[fintstone]

Yep...it is amazing what gets folks wound up. Must be too much of this current crisis. Last time I was here...we were all going to die. Couple of million or more. Now it is only about 60K...and folks where there are zero cases are still freaking out. Must have lived pretty sheltered lives (or let CNN, MSNBC or NPR tell them what to think).