Moderna

[jyl]

Originally Posted by red-beard

https://www.modernatx.com/modernas-work-potential-vaccine-against-covid-19

Glad you are volunteering for this.

[pmax]

Originally Posted by RWebb

Thx for the update - Sorry to hear about the head aches.

It's supposed to do that, make the subject sick.

[RWebb]

well, no

vaccines do not need to "make the subject sick" to elicit an immunological response

[red-beard]

Originally Posted by jyl

Glad you are volunteering for this.

Thanks!

Originally Posted by pmax

It's supposed to do that, make the subject sick.

No. It is supposed to produce an immune response. Some vaccines have fewer side effects. But no vaccine today is designed to actually make you sick, like say cow-pox.

[pmax]

There are no approved mRNA vaccines let alone one to be used on billions.

Just know your risk going in. I assume you did.

[cabmandone]

RB, ya got nothing till they start doing this to ya!
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/uk-launching-controversial-vaccine-trials-volunteers-to-be-infected-with-covid-19/ar-BB1acJLP?ocid=msedgdhp

Originally Posted by pmax

It's supposed to do that, make the subject sick.

Huh??

[pmax]

2nd dose is much much worse. Same as observed in Phase I. Look it up.

[1990C4S]

I suspect that for every person in the US willing to take the trial vaccine, there are hundreds that won't evert take it.

[jyl]

Originally Posted by 1990C4S

I suspect that for every person in the US willing to take the trial vaccine, there are hundreds that won't evert take it.

Since only about 30,000 are in the phase 3 trials, that implies the vaccine refusers will number in the 3,000,000 to 27,000,000 range which would actually be far lower than feared

[RWebb]

vaccine refusers should be irradiated with 5G

[pmax]

Looks like they did advise RB of the same.

[red-beard]

The study materials show that in the Moderna trial, two-thirds are receiving the vaccine and one-third will get placebo.

[jyl]

If I could have gotten into a trial, I'd have jumped at it!

[pmax]

You received the vaccine for sure. Looks like they chose the 100ug mRNA-1273 dosage for the phase 3.

Now go crash those sorority keggers as recommended.

For science !!!

[red-beard]

I am heading up the Keg Party

[jyl]

If study subjects who think they got the vaccine then engage in sorority kegging, that'll screw up the trial...

[RWebb]

check this out:

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/10/19/science.abd2985


big news re high infectivity of this virus (and potential drugs too)

[jyl]

So, the hyper speculation on the vaccine trials is getting kind of silly. In the past week, analysts have been saying that Pfizer's failure to disclose any interim data by now is either a good sign, a bad sign, evidence that Pfizer is hiding something, or evidence of nothing at all.

Pfizer today confirmed that its trial has not yet had 32 events (infections in the study), which is required for the first interim analysis. It also stated that while it still thinks it will hit the 32 event mark in "October" (really? who believes this?), it will take 1 week or more to review and disclose any result of the interim analysis. This actually contributed to market weakness today (as bears need not "fear" positive vaccine news for another week or so).

I kind of lean to the "this is evidence of nothing" side. I did read an analysis that argued, more or less persuasively, that the failure to hit 32 events by now implies either that the study subjects are exposing themselves less to the virus than the average person (which seems plausible) or that the vaccine is at least modestly effective (else there'd be 32 events by now) or both. Which, upon reflection, still tells us nothing much.

Moderna's CEO was smart in not making any ambitious predictions about having data fast. Pfizer's CEO was not. Confidence is nice but confidently keeping one's mouth shut is better.

[red-beard]

They supposedly choose people that are "active", say go to church, are working outside the home, etc. But the issue is, none of us want to get the crud!!!

Only 2% of people in the USA have contracted COVID-19, that we know of.

[red-beard]

I guess the point I'm trying to make is that out of 30,000 people in the Moderna Study, you would "expect" 600 to contract the virus without the vaccine in a period of time. If two thirds get the vaccine, then you would expect about 200 to get the virus if it is 100% effective. If it is 50% effective, then you would expect 50% of the 400 given the vaccine to contract the virus, or an additional 200. So, out of 30,000 you "expect" 400 at 50% effectiveness. If only 300 contract the virus, that is 67% effective, which is what Moderna is expecting.

So they are "waiting" for 300 to become infected and will compare the ratios of the placebo to ones given the vaccine. The more effective the vaccine, to longer the 300 will take...