Moderna 94.5% effective

[red-beard]

Originally Posted by dad911

90%+ effective is promising, but doesn't it depend on how long it lasts?

Do you go around maskless in crowds and touching everything as part of the test?

Thank you for being part of the solution. I think I heard those that got the placebo will be first in line for the real stuff?

That is what they told us when we entered the trial.

BTW, the reason the trials took longer than expected, for both Pfizer and Moderna, is because they were extremely effective. In both trials, they needed a certain number of people to become sick and then to compare the results of the Placebo to the Vaccine.

The "good" news was the resurgence of the virus this fall, which helped hasten the trials.

[biosurfer1]

There was a virologist on the news not too long ago that talked about how while this vaccine was a bit faster than normal, the "years" part of most vaccines is raising money, research to show execs it will be profitable, legal reviews, over coming potential regulations and government approval.

When you take most of that out, you get a vaccine in about a year, just like covid.

[dad911]

And now 300 million people are calling their doctors trying to get first in line......

[stevej37]

^^^ Hollywood stars first!

[jyl]

The differences in cold chain requirements are manageable. PFE's vaccine can be directed to larger facilities with special freezers, MRNA's vaccine can be directed to smaller facilities without. AZN's vaccine, which will have data soon, is likely to have less cold chain requirements than either PFE/MRNA. PFE is testing modified formulations to seek more temperature stability.

The duration of protection is unknown. There is fairly good reason to think it is reasonably long, say a year. I don't see where 6 months vs 1 year makes much difference: we'll simply redose as needed.

By spring, potentially everyone in the US who wants to be vaccinated will have been. Then, or starting before then realistically, most remaining social distancing and masking mandates will come off.

The interesting thing is what then happens with the 20-40% of Americans who decline to be vaccinated. They won't be social distancing or masking. A good number of them will already have been infected, but probably not more than 30-40% (estimates are the cumulative infection rate in even the hardest hit states is still less than 30%).

If anti-vaxers are randomly distributed in the general population, they might be few enough to be protected by the immunity level of those around them. If anti-vaxers tend to be concentrated in certain sub populations (and if immunity from recovery or vaccine lasts less than multiple years) that might not be the case, and you may see Covid continue to circulate in the US, using anti-vaxxers as a virus "reservoir".

It'll be interesting to watch. Quite relevant for some investments too. But I look forward to these being just "interesting" rather than something severely affecting our lives and the economy.

Thanks again for volunteering for the trials, redbeard! Go frolic with the sorority girls, you've earned it.

[cabmandone]

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6

Heard about this this morning, made my day, can't wait until June of next year when life will be pretty much back to normal, maybe sooner here in Boston since everyone will take a vaccine.

Make the vaccine a cool sounding mix drink and most people in Ohio will get it too!

[cabmandone]

Originally Posted by dad911

90%+ effective is promising, but doesn't it depend on how long it lasts?

Do you go around maskless in crowds and touching everything as part of the test?

Thank you for being part of the solution. I think I heard those that got the placebo will be first in line for the real stuff?

He's probably one of those handrail lickers.

[pmax]

So, did you party hard or lock yourself up ?

[pmax]

Originally Posted by jyl

Go frolic with the sorority girls, you've earned it.

Whoa ... slow down buddy.

There's a reason why the monitoring period lasts 2-3 years.

[jyl]

Originally Posted by pmax

Whoa ... slow down buddy.

There's a reason why the monitoring period lasts 2-3 years.

He’ll wear a rubber :-)

Okay, I should have used green font. Twice!

[red-beard]

I haven't worn rubbers in years.

[red-beard]

Originally Posted by cabmando

He's probably one of those handrail lickers.

I'm not familiar with all of this modern slang. Not sure what the "handrail" is these days. But I'm up for anything...

[cabmandone]

Originally Posted by red-beard

I'm not familiar with all of this modern slang. Not sure what the "handrail" is these days. But I'm up for anything...

I think what you're trying to say is "If I'da known it was gonna be that kinda party, I'd stick my d.ck in the mashed potatoes"

[Tobra]

Originally Posted by red-beard

The Doctor all but directly told me I had the vaccination. He said the placebo was sterile saline. I had the "right" side affects.

They are not supposed to do that on a real trial

Originally Posted by jyl

The duration of protection is unknown. There is fairly good reason to think it is reasonably long, say a year.

What makes you say this?

[red-beard]

Originally Posted by Tobra

They are not supposed to do that on a real trial

When we were going into the study, they said at a point we would be told if we had the vaccine or not. It was my understanding that one month after second dose we would be told.

It is double blind. The doc didn't know if I had it or not. But I'm sure he saw the patients and knew the side effects. And then he had to say that they could not tell us until the vaccine was approved.

Then we were talking about the A-Z study and the death in Brazil. I mentioned that it was reported that A-Z was using a meningitis vaccine as the placebo. And he said that was crazy. And mentioned that "typical" was sterile saline.

[jyl]

Originally Posted by Tobra

They are not supposed to do that on a real trial



What makes you say this?

The data on T-cell persistence. Also the exceeding rarity of covid reinfections, 8-9 months into the pandemic. I realize nothing is certain yet. But if immunity were very very shortlived, it seems neither of those would be likely.

[pmax]

The 4 who got sick, was it worse ?

[jyl]

Originally Posted by pmax

The 4 who got sick, was it worse ?

No serious Covid cases in drug arm.

[Geneman]

The first trial reported had 44,000 subjects., something like 97 covid cases among this population ( and this was an interim, IE preliminary analysis) around 90 or so of the cases occurred in the placebo arm of trial.... the rest occured in vaccinated individuals .

[Noah930]

Originally Posted by stealthn

I realize the amount of money the “winning” company will make, but this is a Global pandemic, why is the world not mandating all companies work together to find a solution they all agree on. The “race” to the cure will have nothing but casualties...

Yes and no. From a biochemical perspective, there are different ways to induce an immune response (even, presumably to the same pathogen). Not knowing at first which way will work (or if multiple ways will), it can be advantageous to have different approaches being developed simultaneously. Thus, even if one vaccine doesn't prove to be successful, possibly another vaccine may work. Now I'm hearing that a third vaccine may be annouced in the next week or so, and that there are maybe 2 others which sound promising.