Recession sink values????

[pmax]

Originally Posted by G450X

Quite a few of the old Mustangs were sticks, my ‘67 and ‘68 fastbacks are both small block 4 speeds. I would rather have them than a new GT3 with PDK, but I’ve always been a stick guy.

Interesting. Is there a substantial price differential between the autos and sticks in that market as there is for the 911's ?

I want to puke when I hear a newer Porsche or Ferrari rip through the gears without that slight controlling pause that denotes a controlled shift.

I understand the racing and must win at all costs mentality quickness for the track, but for the street I don’t understand why anyone would want a performance car with an auto shift anything...

Agreed.

The manual in my Honda DD is a hoot. I applaud Honda for being the holdout in still offering a stick for their sedans. However, I fear this is a dying trend. The younger generation around my neck of the woods is a lost cause, and that, I agree with sugar on, does not bode well.

[techweenie]

Years ago, SEMA established a program to bring young people into the hot rodding hobby, as they observed more and more gatherings comprised of old guys ranging from 45 to dead. It had some success, but (as has been said here 10,000 times) the millennials just aren't into cars; aren't dying to get drivers licenses, and are content to use other transportation on an as-needed basis, rather than owning a car.

What percentage of millennials lust for 911s? In my opinion, the market is narrowing. And not just in terms of buyer demographics. It's also driven down by the reliability concerns people have in a world more stressed -- from traffic congestion to incompetent mechanic shops.

I find cars that are less than turn-key perfect are taking a long time to sell -- and buyers are paranoid about mechanical issues.

[ShopCat]

Originally Posted by nathanbs

Internationally their demand is greater than their supply and that will never change.

Is this a real take? Do you see air cooled cars like you see public utility? Of course demand can change... Things go in and out of style guaranteed. 15 years ago muscle car demand was much higher than it is today. Demand is always changing, and nothing stops it from possibly going down, not even forum posts saying its impossible.

[nathanbs]

Originally Posted by ShopCat

Is this a real take? Do you see air cooled cars like you see public utility? Of course demand can change... Things go in and out of style guaranteed. 15 years ago muscle car demand was much higher than it is today. Demand is always changing, and nothing stops it from possibly going down, not even forum posts saying its impossible.

Absolutely demand changes up and down however supply of early air-cooled 911's only goes down. There will never be a greater supply than the demand on early air-cooleds. It doesn't take a psychic or genius to know that. If you disagree than you do not know how massive the popularity is on early 911s

[Txnight]

As someone who is transitioning from another type of collector cars (Land Cruisers) to the Porsche world, I might have a little different take. I'm also squarely in the millennial demographic which the average Porsche owner seems to be increasingly annoyed by.

My experience the last six months has been that cars being sold privately in my price range 20k to 30k, appear to be sellers who were resistant to sell or speculating on the car market are now trying to unload less than average cars while the "air cooled fad" is still in vogue. This attitude has bled over into the 996's as well. The same thing happened in the Land Cruiser market, all of the real buyers purchased what they wanted and now we wait for them to play with them for a few years and then put them back on the market.

Techweenie's comment about the aging car community is particularly interesting to observe here in Dallas. Despite the demand for a place to get together and talk cars we can't even find a place to host our Cars and Coffee event. After graciously hosting the event for several years the BMW dealership asked the event to leave and the calendar now sits empty.

I'm not sure what point I'm trying to make but as someone on the outside trying to get into the group, I have found the entry requirements to be frustrating.

[ShopCat]

Originally Posted by nathanbs

There will never be a greater supply than the demand on early air-cooleds.

This is the same emotionally driven logic used on muscle cars and it still happened. It is not impossible for demand to drop faster than supply on anything, no matter what anyone believes. I'm not saying it will happen, just that it is ridiculous to think it never could. You just said in a previous comment that prices are "down currently," that means demand went down faster than supply....

[nathanbs]

Originally Posted by ShopCat

This is the same emotionally driven logic used on muscle cars and it still happened. It is not impossible for demand to drop faster than supply on anything, no matter what anyone believes. I'm not saying it will happen, just that it is ridiculous to think it never could. You just said in a previous comment that prices are "down currently," that means demand went down faster than supply....

I never said that demand wont ever go down. I also never stated that their values will never go down. I said there will hardly go down from where they currently are or something along those lines. If tomorrow they skyrocketed to absurd amounts of money for god knows what reason would i consider that stable and without risk of plumeting no I do not but I also don't think they would ever skyrocket either. I'm stating that I don't think there will ever be a significant enough decrease in demand to cause their values to significantly drop

[ShopCat]

Originally Posted by nathanbs

I never said that demand wont ever go down. I also never stated that their values will never go down. I said there will hardly go down from where they currently are or something along those lines. If tomorrow they skyrocketed to absurd amounts of money for god knows what reason would i consider that stable and without risk of plumeting no I do not but I also don't think they would ever skyrocket either. I'm stating that I don't think there will ever be a significant enough decrease in demand to cause their values to significantly drop

This is a rational opinion, but this isnt the same thing as "There will never be a greater supply than the demand on early air-cooleds" as you stated earlier. I suppose now its just about your wording. Its a fundamental econ principle that for prices to fall, supply has to be greater than demand. Maybe I'm just too caught up in the way it was worded previously, moving on...

[specialtyoneinc]

Originally Posted by Txnight

As someone who is transitioning from another type of collector cars (Land Cruisers) to the Porsche world, I might have a little different take. I'm also squarely in the millennial demographic which the average Porsche owner seems to be increasingly annoyed by.

My experience the last six months has been that cars being sold privately in my price range 20k to 30k, appear to be sellers who were resistant to sell or speculating on the car market are now trying to unload less than average cars while the "air cooled fad" is still in vogue. This attitude has bled over into the 996's as well. The same thing happened in the Land Cruiser market, all of the real buyers purchased what they wanted and now we wait for them to play with them for a few years and then put them back on the market.

Techweenie's comment about the aging car community is particularly interesting to observe here in Dallas. Despite the demand for a place to get together and talk cars we can't even find a place to host our Cars and Coffee event. After graciously hosting the event for several years the BMW dealership asked the event to leave and the calendar now sits empty.

I'm not sure what point I'm trying to make but as someone on the outside trying to get into the group, I have found the entry requirements to be frustrating.

Can't get much in the $20k-$30k range regarding air-cooled 911s these days. Those cars are going to have some issues unless you stumble upon an uninformed seller.

[Matt Monson]

Originally Posted by Txnight

As someone who is transitioning from another type of collector cars (Land Cruisers) to the Porsche world, I might have a little different take. I'm also squarely in the millennial demographic which the average Porsche owner seems to be increasingly annoyed by.

My experience the last six months has been that cars being sold privately in my price range 20k to 30k, appear to be sellers who were resistant to sell or speculating on the car market are now trying to unload less than average cars while the "air cooled fad" is still in vogue. This attitude has bled over into the 996's as well. The same thing happened in the Land Cruiser market, all of the real buyers purchased what they wanted and now we wait for them to play with them for a few years and then put them back on the market.

Techweenie's comment about the aging car community is particularly interesting to observe here in Dallas. Despite the demand for a place to get together and talk cars we can't even find a place to host our Cars and Coffee event. After graciously hosting the event for several years the BMW dealership asked the event to leave and the calendar now sits empty.

I'm not sure what point I'm trying to make but as someone on the outside trying to get into the group, I have found the entry requirements to be frustrating.

We've got a pretty strong contingent here in Colorado. Our C&C events are packed and lots of 30-35yo with old cars. Just by happenstance, my personal local car "cliche" is loaded with guys who are about 10-12 years younger than I am. I'm 47. Some of my best car buddies still aren't 40 yet. The local PCA events also have a bunch of young 30s water pumper owners. 986,987, and 996 are very well represented in the under 40 age group around here. I'm not convinced that the generation behind me isn't into them.

[pingpong]

for sure prices are flex up down as is the stock market but special the Air cooled Porsche 911 market not that sensitive as supply dwindles and World pop grows.
Indeed they dont make them anymore.
Best market to buy now is Japan, but not many air cooled cars go on the auction block, check it out.
But Air cooled Porsche 911's are sacred for sure.
If worried contact me i am a buyer in a depressed market, cheers.

[sugarwood]

Originally Posted by techweenie

the millennials just aren't into cars; aren't dying to get drivers licenses, and are content to use other transportation on an as-needed basis, rather than owning a car.
.

False.
They just aren't into $40k Porsches.

[BLACK3.2]

Originally Posted by sugarwood

Demand never goes down once we've discovered eternal cryogenic life.

Your brain uploaded into a server would explain some things.

[trader220]

Originally Posted by nathanbs

I never said that demand wont ever go down. I also never stated that their values will never go down. I said there will hardly go down from where they currently are or something along those lines. If tomorrow they skyrocketed to absurd amounts of money for god knows what reason would i consider that stable and without risk of plumeting no I do not but I also don't think they would ever skyrocket either. I'm stating that I don't think there will ever be a significant enough decrease in demand to cause their values to significantly drop

So Nate, if I am reading you right.... prices (the market) probably wont go down that much, and probably wont rocket that much, otherwise its may just sit around these prices or move a bit up or down. Although if they rocketed up that's okay but you wouldn't expect that to happen. Same for a collapse, it could happen but you doubt it.

When I was a neophyte trader we had a an economist who would come to our daily market meetings. For several years his evaluation of the market never changed. "The market could go up from here, but, if it doesn't, it may just go down, otherwise we could see some range trading for a while. He happened to be a very nice guy, I always wondered how much they paid him for that stellar analysis.

[trader220]

Originally Posted by ShopCat

This is the same emotionally driven logic used on muscle cars and it still happened. It is not impossible for demand to drop faster than supply on anything, no matter what anyone believes. I'm not saying it will happen, just that it is ridiculous to think it never could. You just said in a previous comment that prices are "down currently," that means demand went down faster than supply....

Bingo

[nathanbs]

Originally Posted by trader220

So Nate, if I am reading you right.... prices (the market) probably wont go down that much, and probably wont rocket that much, otherwise its may just sit around these prices or move a bit up or down. Although if they rocketed up that's okay but you wouldn't expect that to happen. Same for a collapse, it could happen but you doubt it.

When I was a neophyte trader we had a an economist who would come to our daily market meetings. For several years his evaluation of the market never changed. "The market could go up from here, but, if it doesn't, it may just go down, otherwise we could see some range trading for a while. He happened to be a very nice guy, I always wondered how much they paid him for that stellar analysis.

Lol. About sums it up. No I have previously stated that I think they will continue to climb. I acknowledge that they are down currently and of course could dip a bit lower but overall I only see them to continue to go up.

[Alan A]

Originally Posted by sugarwood

False.
They just aren't into $40k Porsches.

No he has it right.
They’d rather use Uber.

[G450X]

Originally Posted by pmax

Interesting. Is there a substantial price differential between the autos and sticks in that market as there is for the 911's ?


Agreed.

The manual in my Honda DD is a hoot. I applaud Honda for being the holdout in still offering a stick for their sedans. However, I fear this is a dying trend. The younger generation around my neck of the woods is a lost cause, and that, I agree with sugar on, does not bode well.

I don’t think any performance cars are worth more with an automatic than a manual. There might be some odd bird that may be the exception, but all muscle cars that I know of, Mercedes-Benz models that offer both, BMW’s, Porsche’s, Ferrari’s (360 and 430 manuals especially) are worth more with a stick.

People who really like to drive want to be “engaged” in the process... I’ve driven several Porsche PDK models, it’s a great automatic, but it’s still less engaging than a real manual. Most 911 PDK owners I speak with wished they had ordered a manual...

[trader220]

Originally Posted by G450X

Most 911 PDK owners I speak with wished they had ordered a manual...

Having worked for Porsche from 2008 to 2018 and either sold as a salesman or been involved with the sale, as the GSM, of hundreds of 911's I can tell you that few people ask for manuals and few regret they bought the PDK.

Obviously I have tens of thousands of miles in both manual and PDK cars. I find the manual in the 991 to be pretty useless, it does not have the feel of the prior models. The PDK is really the way to go in the 991. In the 997.2 I find the manual more engaging, then again I find the 997.2 to be more engaging all around.

[Rick Brooklyn]

Originally Posted by trader220

Obviously I have tens of thousands of miles in both manual and PDK cars. I find the manual in the 991 to be pretty useless, it does not have the feel of the prior models. The PDK is really the way to go in the 991.

Interesting. Pretty useless how?