Recession sink values????

[nathanbs]

Originally Posted by robertmark

There were over 100,000 long nose cars produced. And yes, thousands of them still do exist. Excellent point bringing the Ford Mustang into play. Have you seen what some of those sell for at the big auction houses? I am not referring to the Shelbys.

Great story Sal

It’s all supply and demand. 1500 total 73 carrera RSs is like going on a hike in Death Valley with one teardrop of water for hydration. Porsches are greatly desired worldwide unlike mustangs

[robertmark]

Originally Posted by Matt Monson

I said 911. You are adding in the 912s.

Ok, you got me there!!!

[SalParadise]

Originally Posted by nathanbs

It’s all supply and demand. 1500 total 73 carrera RSs is like going on a hike in Death Valley with one teardrop of water for hydration. Porsches are greatly desired worldwide unlike mustangs

Where I live Mustangs are more desired than Porsches. It's hilarious but in Illinois people love 'Vettes and Mustangs. My car did not even get one single remark as it sat in the driveway the entire summer. Not one. Not even "Is it for sale"? Nothing. I was sort of insulted. It's American iron here. No one cares - except the people in Barrington or Lake Forest and they are into Ferraris. It would not surprise me around here if they didn't even know an old G Body was a 911. Know what the kids like around here? My old mint 2000 silver Audi TT that's lowered and has this huge wing on the back (no, I did not put the wing on - the past owner did, but I have been too lazy to spend the $150 for a used back hatch without one). They freaking love stuff that's lowered, has a wing, and sounds like a chainsaw at speed.

Goes to show that you can generalize about the world but you don't know the world. You have no idea what people like. Last time I was in China the Panamera was the car to own and to be seen in. I saw more of them there than in San Diego. An aircooled 911 would be a joke to them.

Also in Japan I am having my doubts as if future generations like an old 911. They love Japanimation RWBs, and the Aussies and Kiwis are buying their old G-bodys for fair money and bringing them to New Zealand and Australia (where they like them, but they never really had many at all).

An aircooled is such a commitment as I said a few posts back that I don't think that many young people get it. They are not in that '70s or '80s mindset that I'm in and continue to be in. They don't get why I have a full-size Donkey Kong or Dragon's Lair or Star Wars in my living room. They think I should get a multi-cade. I tell them it's not the same.

There are only so many, but there is still many cars, and I am not convinced that people love owning them more than the idea of owning them. Old 911s are slow and old. And they drive slow and old. They are fun, but I think Oval Window bugs are fun. My son would probably think that's a joke.

[JMS935]

Originally Posted by SalParadise

Let me tell you a story about the late '80s classic car gold rush.

I was 17 working a a Ferrari place in Connecticut, doing odd jobs after highschool. We are talking 1987,1988, part of 1989. It was booming - bigtime.

A family friend who owned several Ferraris (two 308s, a Testarossa, and a BB) had an investor, speculator or what have you walk into his barn in Westport and offered him $120K for the mint 308, $250K for his Testarossa, and $365K for his very mint BB (appropriate money for a car that's a 365 model). He took the money, $735K. His profit was probably $425K.

I was completely flummoxed. I asked him, "Why did you sell?" As I said, I was 17 and I was wide-eyed and thought the sky was the limit. He replied, "Now I can buy that beach house I always wanted, and in six years I can buy the cars back for what I originally bought them for after owning a beach house free and clear for six years."

I thought to myself, yeah, whatever, the cars are gone and they are going to keep going. Enzo is dead. They aren't making anymore. I was 17 and had little world experience. Fast forward six or seven years, he did in fact buy all the cars back - and one was actually one of his old cars. The TR he bought for $75K, the BB for $88K, and the 308 - get this - for $26K.

He was out the cars for those years but he bought a beach house on the Connecticut coast and bought the cars back for less than he paid in the mid-to-early 80s.

I often think of this story and wished I had a bunch of desirable cars to sell.

And oh, the reverse of this is a 250 GTO my boss sold for $89K in 1979 that he thought would be the highest they would ever go. So it goes both ways, but some cars are much more special than others.

Awesome story Sal! What this anecdote tells us is that rarity always wins out, so don’t ever expect to be able to buy back something that’s uber rare, cause it’s not likely to happen. Your boss knew he could buy back the TR, BB and 308 at any time. I’m sure he also had a good idea that replacing the 250 GTO at a later date would be very unlikely.

Had he been Warren Buffet like, and just bought and held them forever, he’d be quite wealthy right now, but you can’t fault him either for selling and taking a profit.

[2cam]

I guess it just depends on why you have one of these cars. Are you into them as an investment or because you like them for what they are - quirky, fun cars with lots of personality? If it's the latter, find a car that you like and can afford and don't worry about values going up or down. Just enjoy the damn thing. If you get lucky, great. If not, oh well, at least you had fun.

*And yes, I do think that the recession will impact the values, but not immensely. IMO, the prices will flatten and fall a bit, but it's very unlikely that they'll take a nose dive.


2cam

[robertmark]

Good discussion all. I have my 3 air cooled Porsches. The market can crash, go up, or go sideways. I bought for the same reason you guys probably did. I love the smell just sitting in them. I love when my wife says, "You've been in the 356" because I smell like gas and oil. My collection is complete, and I hope to die owning all three.

[pmax]

Originally Posted by SalParadise

Where I live Mustangs are more desired than Porsches. It's hilarious but in Illinois people love 'Vettes and Mustangs

How many of these Mustang owners drive a stick ?

No, Raw, not that !

[plexiform]

If the prices go down, I'll buy a couple more. If the prices go up, I'll sell the two I have. Either way I'm having a blast with mine.

[nathanbs]

Originally Posted by SalParadise

Where I live Mustangs are more desired than Porsches. It's hilarious but in Illinois people love 'Vettes and Mustangs. My car did not even get one single remark as it sat in the driveway the entire summer. Not one. Not even "Is it for sale"? Nothing. I was sort of insulted. It's American iron here. No one cares - except the people in Barrington or Lake Forest and they are into Ferraris. It would not surprise me around here if they didn't even know an old G Body was a 911. Know what the kids like around here? My old mint 2000 silver Audi TT that's lowered and has this huge wing on the back (no, I did not put the wing on - the past owner did, but I have been too lazy to spend the $150 for a used back hatch without one). They freaking love stuff that's lowered, has a wing, and sounds like a chainsaw at speed.

Goes to show that you can generalize about the world but you don't know the world. You have no idea what people like. Last time I was in China the Panamera was the car to own and to be seen in. I saw more of them there than in San Diego. An aircooled 911 would be a joke to them.

Also in Japan I am having my doubts as if future generations like an old 911. They love Japanimation RWBs, and the Aussies and Kiwis are buying their old G-bodys for fair money and bringing them to New Zealand and Australia (where they like them, but they never really had many at all).

An aircooled is such a commitment as I said a few posts back that I don't think that many young people get it. They are not in that '70s or '80s mindset that I'm in and continue to be in. They don't get why I have a full-size Donkey Kong or Dragon's Lair or Star Wars in my living room. They think I should get a multi-cade. I tell them it's not the same.

There are only so many, but there is still many cars, and I am not convinced that people love owning them more than the idea of owning them. Old 911s are slow and old. And they drive slow and old. They are fun, but I think Oval Window bugs are fun. My son would probably think that's a joke.

I hear you loud and clear but there's only one reason 911's have gone up to the prices they have and there's only one reason they will hardly fall much from where they are if at all and lastly there is only one reason they will continue to go up and that is supply versus demand. Internationally their demand is greater than their supply and that will never change. The demand for mustangs and Audis with wings in illinois is not great enough to overcome their international supply. The demand for panameras in china is not enough to cause an international shortage although I bet it causes a national one and I bet you have to pay a pretty penny for a panamera in China. Oh and internationally enough people love oval window bugs too. Enough to overcome the fact that hundreds of thousands if not millions were made. Thats a good comparison. Oval window versus mustang. One has a huge international following and the other is relatively isolated. Let's not over complicate it.

[nathanbs]

Originally Posted by plexiform

If the prices go down, I'll buy a couple more. If the prices go up, I'll sell the two I have. Either way I'm having a blast with mine.

exactly

[BLACK3.2]

Yes, of course a recession will affect the market. Demand will go down, and prices will go down. It happens with every recession. However, there is a longer arc of appreciation that will most likely continue with air-cooled 911s. At least, until the last of the pre-millennial generation dying out. But with guys in their 30s and 40s buying air-cooled p-cars, and life expectancy for educated, wealthy people into the 100s, and with these people getting wealthier every year, that's unlikely to happen for 50 years at least.

[MrBonus]

Originally Posted by McLovin

Recessions might not affect Ferrari 250 GTO prices, but there were almost half a million aircooled 911s made.

Prices are already softening as credit/liquidity has tightened and the stock market has declined.

A full blown recession would certainly put a hit on values of, for example, those thousands and thousands of SCs and 80s Carreras with 150,000+ miles on them.

Per Hagerty, the last recession made a larger dent in the big dollar, rare Ferraris as a percentage of value than it did the more common vehicles like our G-Bodies.

[QueWhy]

Originally Posted by nathanbs

It’s all supply and demand. 1500 total 73 carrera RSs is like going on a hike in Death Valley with one teardrop of water for hydration. Porsches are greatly desired worldwide unlike mustangs

Supply has nothing to do with demand. Haven’t you taken suganomics?

All of this was covered (including 10,000yr demand projections) in this thread http://forums.pelicanparts.com/porsche-marketplace-discussion/1007574-impact-bubble-starts-cool.html

[Matt Monson]

https://www.foxnews.com/auto/unique-1967-ford-mustang-shelby-gt500-super-snake-sold-at-auction-for-record-2-2-million?fbclid=IwAR3eWwVxrU9BOcAUj5rvz4qAYADUURGw5 wCdUt9wv5HCQSGNHVCtFLreU-0

[nathanbs]

Originally Posted by QueWhy

Supply has nothing to do with demand. Haven’t you taken suganomics?

All of this was covered (including 10,000yr demand projections) in this thread http://forums.pelicanparts.com/porsche-marketplace-discussion/1007574-impact-bubble-starts-cool.html

Lol took me a minute

[sugarwood]

Demand never goes down once we've discovered eternal cryogenic life.

[G450X]

Originally Posted by pmax

How many of these Mustang owners drive a stick ?

No, Raw, not that !

Quite a few of the old Mustangs were sticks, my ‘67 and ‘68 fastbacks are both small block 4 speeds. I would rather have them than a new GT3 with PDK, but I’ve always been a stick guy.

I want to puke when I hear a newer Porsche or Ferrari rip through the gears without that slight controlling pause that denotes a controlled shift.

I understand the racing and must win at all costs mentality quickness for the track, but for the street I don’t understand why anyone would want a performance car with an auto shift anything...

[ab1752]

I think a recession would hit dealers first who are sitting on an inventory that needs to be turned over which would present a fair few on this board with a buying opportunity to find that special car they have been after for a while. For those with a 911 in a personal collection, or using one daily, there are likely other assets (I struggle with a car being considered an asset but anyway) that would go sooner since, in my case anyway, owing a 911 is an emotional thing that I also plan to own until I am gone.

[Tbone425]

Being a Porsche enthusiast since 10 years before I could drive, the “investment” nonsense is sickening. Cars are not investments.... they are cars, to be driven and enjoyed. Unfortunately it plays very well into the stereotypical Porsche owner. I can’t imagine another hobby as consumed with money than this one. I’ve never stood around on the golf course and discussed the value of my golf clubs.

At the end of the day, these cars are not exotic in any sense. The meteoric rise in values has been driven mainly by those who are chasing the money, not enthusiasts. True enthusiasts pray for a collapse in prices so they can get more cars..... to drive and enjoy. I have to admit that seeing a couple flippers winding up with a million dollars in cars that is all of sudden worth $250k would make me chuckle.

Invest in true financial instruments and enjoy your cars....deciding your retirement age or where your kids go to college because the value of your cars fell apart would be dumb.

Just my $.02

[mobius911]

Originally Posted by Rick Brooklyn

Eight plurals, all correct, none of them with a mother****ing apostrophe. You, dear Sir, are part of a dying breed.