The longer the quarantine, the higher prices will go!

[Cobalt]

Originally Posted by rw229

All the usual places. The challenge is finding a nice original car for a reasonable price. I am willing to pay a premium for the right car, but I am picky so...

It took me over a year and looking at nearly 100 of the 335 94 turbos and almost as many 928GTS's to find my cars except my C2 which I knew the seller and the car long before. I paid a premium for the car at the time because I trusted the seller and liked the car. I was lucky I grabbed it when I did. This was back in the early 2000's when cars were cheap and abundant. Finding a nice example today is far harder.

There are many cars out there with premium asking prices and most are refurbished or gussied up in one way or another. Finding a good car that doesn't have skeletons lurking is not as easy as one would think. I looked at 6 cars for people last week alone via pictures and all of them had stories I wouldn't be interested in hearing at the seller's asking price.

[pmax]

Ouch !

[sugarwood]

U.S. banks are 'swimming in money' as deposits increase by $2 trillion amid the coronavirus.

A record $2 trillion surge in cash has hit the deposit accounts of U.S. banks since the coronavirus first struck the U.S. in January, according to FDIC data.

The wall of money flowing into banks has no precedent in history: in April alone, deposits grew by $865 billion, more than the previous record for an entire year.

[NYNick]

^^^Completely plagiarized from CNBC website. Why not just post the link?
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/21/banks-have-grown-by-2-trillion-in-deposits-since-coronavirus-first-hit.html

[juanbenae]

Originally Posted by NYNick

^^^Completely plagiarized from CNBC website. Why not just post the link?

that does not make you look like the smartest kid in class though NYN..

[ShopCat]

Isn't that only an average of like, $10k per working adult? Lol, of which the median number would be much, much smaller...

[Matt Monson]

When the market crashed a bunch of people took money out. With interest rates at zero they weren’t rushing to bonds with it. I bet the majority of them are just sitting on it and not buying toy or investment cars. They know two things:
1. The recession is here and cash reserves are nice to have in hand.
2. There’s an election in Nov and why not sit out a bit and see where the market is headed after we know who is gonna be sitting in the Oval Office come January.

[NYNick]

Originally Posted by Matt Monson

When the market crashed a bunch of people took money out. With interest rates at zero they weren’t rushing to bonds with it. I bet the majority of them are just sitting on it and not buying toy or investment cars. They know two things:
1. The recession is here and cash reserves are nice to have in hand.
2. There’s an election in Nov and why not sit out a bit and see where the market is headed after we know who is gonna be sitting in the Oval Office come January.

If they did the above they A) took a huge hit to the portfolio by selling in a (BIG!!!) down market and B) missed a huge comeback that has occurred since. Huge.

Cash is nice but all it does is sit there. I like to keep things moving and wait for the big moves down to buy. I never, ever consider repositioning during the crazy crashes.

[Matt Monson]

Originally Posted by NYNick

If they did the above they A) took a huge hit to the portfolio by selling in a (BIG!!!) down market and B) missed a huge comeback that has occurred since. Huge.

Cash is nice but all it does is sit there. I like to keep things moving and wait for the big moves down to buy. I never, ever consider repositioning during the crazy crashes.

You are talking like:
A. The “market” is monolithic. People buy stocks or funds. The market avg or index being up doesn’t 100% translate to what individuals are holding.
B. You talk like a rational being. Many financial decisions people make aren’t rational.
C. Not everyone buys and sells on a daily basis. People get scared and bail and then get worried about going back in too soon.

All that said, what is your explanation for the huge cash reserves the banks are reporting?

[NYNick]

Originally Posted by Matt Monson

You are talking like:
A. The “market” is monolithic. People buy stocks or funds. The market avg or index being up doesn’t 100% translate to what individuals are holding.
B. You talk like a rational being. Many financial decisions people make aren’t rational.
C. Not everyone buys and sells on a daily basis. People get scared and bail and then get worried about going back in too soon.

All that said, what is your explanation for the huge cash reserves the banks are reporting?

I think there might be a compliment in there somewhere.

I learned a long time ago that the market is irrational. It does what it does with nobody able to predict what it's going to do except for one thing: long term, it's the best investment vehicle there is. Period.

I'm not even sure what your "monolithic" reference means. Not that smart. I do know that most of what goes on has nothing to do with individual investing. Hedge Funds, Institutional Investing and computers run the show. I'm just a fly on the a#@ of the stock market, as most of us are.

Only dopes make irrational financial decisions. I've made my fair share but not with my investments. Long term, long term, long term with dollar cost averaging along the way. Don't try to time the market. You can't. My buddy the dentist sold hundreds of thousands during the 06 crash and then bought back in after it recovered. Dope.

I definitely do not buy and sell on a daily basis. Never did. For decades all I did was buy and hold, buy and hold, constantly. Dollar cost averaging, for decades. Now, I can fool around a bit more, but still, it's measured and mad money I can lose. Sometimes I'm the windshield and sometimes I'm the bug.

My explanation for why the banks are loaded with cash is because we've had a few hundred million people sitting at home with nothing to spend their money on, while the Feds doled out Trillions (with a T) to them and corporations to prop up the economy. All that money has been put in the banks. That's my theory anyway.

My daughter lives right along the poverty line. She's been unemployed for 6 months. She's never had as much money in the bank as she does now and hesitates to go back to work when she can make more on unemployment. It's a moral dilemma for her and she struggles with it, but it pays well.

IDK, maybe I'm wrong, but the US economy is and has been unstoppable.
I'm glad I'm retired.

[Glenfield]

Matt, COVID-19 hit a specific section of the economy and population hardest. For the majority of those individuals, the aggregate of stimulus checks, CARES Act unemployment insurance and regular unemployment benefits is greater than their weekly hourly wage (pre-COVID). That’s one of the drivers of increased cash reserves at banks. There are a couple of others on the input side including a significant surge in cash-out refinancings in early march when rate declines front-ran the economic calamity. I don’t think that’s big enough to move the needle though and on the whole, I think it’s spending side. Total spending is down ~30-40% on prior years. We haven’t really had the “recession” yet because of the fiscal support that’s propping up household incomes and asset values. Hopefully they can recalibrate it in a way that softens the landing otherwise it could be a thud.

What that means for classic car values I am very interested to see. Information asymmetry, mispricing, illiquidity still exist in classic car market. There is also greater reward for knowledge and skill. That was bought away in equities long ago. If you buy well, which I certainly didn’t, I think the returns on a car over the next 10 years mightn’t be too far off from returns on the market from 3200! And if you stuff it all up, the rushing wind will dry your tears

[rw229]

Nope.

Originally Posted by sugarwood

So, the $60k 1986 with 30k miles is out of your budget?

This.

Originally Posted by Cobalt

It took me over a year and looking at nearly 100 of the 335 94 turbos and almost as many 928GTS's to find my cars except my C2 which I knew the seller and the car long before. I paid a premium for the car at the time because I trusted the seller and liked the car. I was lucky I grabbed it when I did. This was back in the early 2000's when cars were cheap and abundant. Finding a nice example today is far harder.

There are many cars out there with premium asking prices and most are refurbished or gussied up in one way or another. Finding a good car that doesn't have skeletons lurking is not as easy as one would think. I looked at 6 cars for people last week alone via pictures and all of them had stories I wouldn't be interested in hearing at the seller's asking price.

[sugarwood]

Skeletons lurking? Don't trust the seller?
Did you actually see it in person?
What exactly was wrong with the 1986?

[wgwollet]

Sugarwood

You are simplifying the vintage Porsche market, it’s much more complicated then you describe.
The long hoods are dead, the 356 are flat, the mid year cars still struggling, the SC are very common and cheap, the Carrera is flat, G50, some value left but over priced about $50,000, the 964 will become the long term car of choice, the 993 is coming down a lot, the 930 World is very flat and dropping.....common 993 cars are Best Buy, but many do not like the look away from the 911.

The above is standard generic cars, forget Cabs and Tips....they are common and cheap.

Yes, there are no middle cars around, only good examples or major rebuild cost. The problem is the low amount of C2 Manual Coupes that Porsche built in the years mostly from 1984-1998. That’s why some guys are buying the 964 C4 and 993 C4 are are fine and strong but I have those cars and it takes special buyers....To make matters worst, the buying public was looking for more drivable cars thus the end of the 911 with manual and Coupes, early 90’s brought many Cab and Tip buyers as seen for sale. The latest Pano had not one 964 Coupe all Cabs....so we must be very specific on values...and models......personally the 993 C2 is affordable but many with ugly paint and that dam tan interior.

[wgwollet]

To muddy the water, the 997.1 and the 997.2 C2 MT are very strong, and with many younger buyers they are becoming the future buy to own car...but hard to find in manual, S or nice colors. Porsche build a ****load of tan leather and gray leather cars before 2008 and after and they are dated looking and harder to sell.. But, the 997.2 2009-2011 are great cars even in PDK, and less costly then good 964 cars.

Some think there is a large group just heading towards the 997 C2 cars...because many Cabs were built at this time too bring much less money....so it’s become a sweet spot with the base car at 325hp, heavier car but faster then the air cars.

My 2 cents

[wgwollet]

As far as Covid19 goes, it’s a crap shoot. You cannot say penned up demand will buy something like vintage Porsche? Look, the future is very off for many people, some will never go back to that office job. It’s not a industrial economy now, many non-value jobs. We never had a experience like Covid, some still say (Hoax) mostly Trumpsters, but it’s real and changing our jobs, lifestyle, priorities and future.

So for people to run out with $50,000 cash to buy a vintage Porsche think again. The market will be based on good cars, and mostly the Manual Coupes, end of story. The others will just float around for years in a steady state of nothing. The 914, 944, 924, 928 all enjoyed some movement but that’s based on inflation really.....

[sugarwood]

Originally Posted by wgwollet

So for people to run out with $50,000 cash to buy a vintage Porsche think again. .

https://bringatrailer.com/listing/1989-porsche-911-carrera-targa-21/
https://bringatrailer.com/listing/1975-porsche-911s-39/
https://bringatrailer.com/listing/1986-porsche-911-carrera-44/

[faapgar]

Hi.Barnum & Bailey said there was an ASS for every seat.By the last 3 listings you just put up you support that theory.So with all your optimismic wisdom what have you bought to support your mouth and futuristic input?Ciao

[pmax]

Originally Posted by wgwollet

the 964 will become the long term car of choice.

Not when they meet their ignominious end as Singer fodder.

[NYNick]

Originally Posted by pmax

Not when they meet their ignominious end as Singer fodder.

"Ignominious". Good wood pmax. I enjoy hearing words that are rarely used.