Ugh! Pano just arrived with some really whacked(?) valuations

[Unobtanium-inc]

Originally Posted by techweenie

I've never understood the "kills the hobby" comment.

There are always going to be under-valued Porsches to play with. 3 years ago, it was the '74-77 911s. Before that, the 3.2 Carrera. Today, it's the 996 and Boxster.

Longhoods have been priced in a bubble for 6-7 years at least, and there is still upward pressure. Want a running long hood for under $20K? They are out there. You just have to apply some imagination to see through the cosmetic challenges.

Pining for the day you could buy a running, presentable longhood for $7K? Well, yes, those days are gone.

Can I just "ditto" this? Add the history of 356 values to the conversation and you have all the info you need to see the past, present and future of Porsche pricing. -- Matt

[Christien]

I don't know about that. I (mistakenly) put my longhood up for sale a year or 2 ago for 20k firm, and the best I got was an offer for 16. Thank god I came to my senses and pulled it from the market, but the action on it was surprisingly light. And that's a running car, with some upgrades, a spare engine, fresh clutch, rebuilt tranny, etc.

[Randy W]

This was bound to happen to long hoods. It's actually been happening for the last ten years, and at a much faster rate in the past five. These are now "classic cars" that have greater performance than a 356. I actually think, as owners age, the early 911 might outpace the 356 market... It's already up over last year's prices.

The Pano prices for "collector quality" 911S cars is pretty much correct based on the sales I know about. I think the "good driver" 911T prices are a bit high personally. Those might fall somewhere between the Pano and Excellence estimates.

I think modified early 911s are something that could continue to be of interest to hobbyists. Cheaper than an equivalent original, and more fun to play with.

[wgwollet]

What people are saying is true. The long hoods are getting expensive....just like the 356 prices have gone. I like 356 cars, but could never afford the starting prices of $40,000 plus for just a good 356C coupe, so I gave up and looked at the early 911. I am fairly late to all these early cars and try to buy under $20,000, but realize it is coming to an end. Even 912's are getting high prices. So yes, to me cars in the above 40k range are no longer just a hobby to drive everyday, gee, how is a guy to justify 40k for a fun daily driver? It turns into a weekend show car and/or garage queen.

[wavhitcher]

My friend and I both have early 911Es. His a 1972, one owner, coupe, completely original, 42k miles. Yup, only 42k miles.

I have a 1973 911E targa, S trim and guages, 180k miles, some upgrades like Recaro seats and suspension, but still a 2.4 liter, MFI car in very nice condition. Engine rebuild at 140k miles.

We are both considering selling and these prices we hear about make it even more tempting. Oh, yeah, both are metallic green, his original, mine repainted once the same color as original.

Curious as to this forums opinions on how to market and sell these cars.

Thanks.

[McLovin]

Originally Posted by techweenie

I've never understood the "kills the hobby" comment.

There are always going to be under-valued Porsches to play with. 3 years ago, it was the '74-77 911s. Before that, the 3.2 Carrera. Today, it's the 996 and Boxster.

I guess I'd agree with that, if you include watercooled.

I don't think there will always be under-valued air cooled Porsches to play with. Yes, I'd agree that historically, up til now, that's been true, but I don't think it will be true for too much longer.

Maybe "killing" the hobby is a little extreme, but for those of us dyed in the wool aircooled enthusiasts, the hobby is going to at least start getting maimed as prices get out of reach.

It was fun in the era of being able to buy really nice, driveable longhoods for $10-$15K. That era has of course passed.

It is (or was?) a lot of fun in the era of being able to buy very nice shorthood Carreras for $15-$16K. Not sure if that era has passed, but I'm pretty sure that in 2020, an 80,000 mile, all original G50 Carrera isn't going to be $20,000 anymore.

[KNS]

That's what I meant when I said "killing the hobby". For the guy dreaming of owning an air cooled Porsche some day - he will be forever priced out of the market. My chance of owning a nice long hood (I'd love a 911E) has probably passed.

In addition, as the prices rise, the owners of air cooled cars will be increasingly hesitant to drive their cars on a somewhat daily basis.

[techweenie]

Okay, this is just silly.

There have always been people priced out of the market, even when you could buy 911s for $4000.

Now, air cooled Porsches sell for prices similar to a mid-range Lexus or Infiniti or Mercedes or Audi or BMW.

The key difference is that in 2-3 years each of those cars will have cost you $500-700/mo. in depreciation.

[Sunroof]

......I am becoming more hesitant to drive my 1973.5T on daily joy rides since they have been increasing in price, rarity and desire. I find nothing wrong with that as a purely financial consideration since it represents an appreciating asset outweighing any current investment. I bought it 11 years ago for $9500.00 after the prior owner dumped over 34K into a total restoration. Who knew?! Yes, it should be driven, but if the longhoods are now becoming desired collectibles, beating it down only to restore it again does not make financial sense to me in my present stage of life. It was never intended as a daily driver.

I concur with some of the valuations in Pano coupled with Bruce Anderson's continuing appraisal of the cars as they move up in collectible status.

So, indeed guys like me can sit on them for years making supply more limited as demand soars. Not a bad thing. But then, I can always take it across country with a trunk load of spare parts and a horseshoe up my butt and write a flowery travel story of me and my longhood as I photodocument our great adventure and add more notoriety to the greatness of the Porsche 911 longhoods.

Maybe not a bad idea..........any sponsor(s) out there?

Bob
73.5T ( in lovely Sepia)

[Matt Monson]

I had this ad forwarded to me yesterday:
1970 Porsche 911T Targa

I'm told asking price is $65k...

[techweenie]

Here's an interesting history: 2004, I bought a rusty, neglected '73 E coupe for $2850. Put a couple years and a couple bucks into it and sold it for $16,400. My buyer put a couple years and a couple bucks into it and we sold it in the mid-$20s. It is now coming back on the market and the seller is thinking of asking $65K.

In all honesty, I think the car is a mid $40s car today. Either way, the appreciation is pretty spectacular.

People ask me if they should just buy any random original 911 and sit on it for a few years, and I really don't know. How much higher can/will the market go on these cars? My sense is, not a whole lot.

[G450X]

I could of had my own "Techweenie" story...

I passed on a pretty nice '71 911E (it started near $30k but sold for around $22k if I recall correctly) a few years ago because I didn't like the color!

It was maroon with a black leather interior, and right about now (amongst the long hood craze) I'm feeling pretty silly for passing on it.

If I had a little more foresight, I would have realized that the color was not really bad and that if it had been a color I really liked (signal blue/green or slate grey) it would probably have sold quickly for much more.....

I'm sure I have had more fun with my SC than I would have with that 911E, but as somewhat of an "fun investment," there's no comparison - long hoods rule!

[Unobtanium-inc]

Back in the '80s the Ferrari craze was in full swing. The Ferrari market looked just like the early 911 market today. If you had anything with a prancing horse on it, you were in the money. They went up and up and up, and lots of inexperienced investors tried to jump into the market by buying Ferraris at record prices, assuming they would continue to climb. Then around '88 the bottom fell out of the market and the cars settled down quite a bit in value. The inexperienced guys who said "I want in on this craze" were looking at losses. Of course, being Ferraris, the market came back strong, but it took about 15 years. That's a long time to hold your investment cars. Like Techweenie said, this could very well be the top of the market, at least for now. -- Matt

[Matt Monson]

Originally Posted by techweenie

Here's an interesting history: 2004, I bought a rusty, neglected '73 E coupe for $2850. Put a couple years and a couple bucks into it and sold it for $16,400. My buyer put a couple years and a couple bucks into it and we sold it in the mid-$20s. It is now coming back on the market and the seller is thinking of asking $65K.

Yep. In 2006 I paid $1000 for my 1970 911T targa driver. It had been resprayed a couple of times and had a bit of kidney bowl rust. It had S trim and was a solid and reliable daily driver for nearly 2 years.

In 2008 I sold it to a shop in Belgium for just shy of $10k. They did a bare metal restoration on it and in 2009 sold it to a gentleman in Germany for 55K Euro.

I'm pretty confident that if I still had that car today in the exact same condition I owned it in, I could sell it in less than a week for $20-25K.

[JasonF]

I've suspended my search for a 73.5 CIS-T because I think the current market (or at least asking) prices simply doesn't make economic sense to me. In fact, I sold a 2010 Cayman-S to raise funds to buy a "nice T" and couldn't justify the ever-increasing prices and so I'm holding onto my money.

Since '05 or '06 I've followed the 911T market closely and noticed a steady upward march in prices that only paused and went sideways during the 08-09 recession - but they never really fell much.

I work on Wall Street and am fascinated by bubbles. Frankly, I don't know if longhood cars are in the midst of a pricing bubble. Owners think not, buyers think so. We'll only know if a 1980's-style Ferrari scenario plays out similarly. In short, we won't know until after the fact when it takes longer to sell a car and downward pricing pressure results.

Here are some totally anecdotal things I've noticed over the past 5 years (this is for 911T's):

1. You could get a 'really nice' driver for $25k-ish until late 2009.
2. Since early 2010 through to today a 'really nice' driver will now cost you at least $40-$50k, and usually more. This is a car with extremely minimal or no rust, survived the 80's intact and is very presentable.
3. Cars I saw in person and passed on due to issues (typically rust) were usually snatched up by European buyers sight unseen. A couple cars I blinked on were gone in a matter of 24-48 hours.

As a result, sellers didn't need to deal with tire kickers and the strong Euro not only put a solid floor on prices, but contributed to the ever-increasing asking prices these cars have experienced. Unfortunately, a lot of junk (that appeared nice on the internet) made it across the Atlantic.

I may have missed an opportunity to buy a longhood, but that's life. Is it a bubble? I don't know, but if Ferrari's with their more exotic appeal and lower production numbers could get hit, I see no reason why early 911's couldn't either. What will prick the bubble? Hard to say. If the Euro goes below 1.20 maybe that will take some steam out. Maybe the market will shift to cars that seem to be a better relative value (3.2's, 993's?) and so buyers will also consider those cars as well.

[mobius911]

I brought over a 73 Carrera RS in the grey market heydays in 1984. Since then I've followed the prices. They went way up in the late 80s and peaked somewhere around 1988, then dropped for a few years (like the Ferraris), and I estimate the car lost 50% from the peak by the early 90s. Then prices took off again, but seemed to sputter in the early 2000s. And now we are where we are. So for my 28 years of ownership it's been a sawtooth with an upward slope. Timing is everything.

I don't know if it's a bubble, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a correction of 20-25%. Especially if the Euro tanks.

FWIW, I estimate that, at 3.5% annual inflation, my car is worth pretty much the same as what it was in 1988. The two peaks (if this is in fact a peak) are similar in inflation-adjusted dollars.

[archtech]

I'd be interested in reading the article... I went to the book store and they didn't carry it. Any chance someone can scan it?

thanks!

[mobius911]

Well, here's a link to the important part on Early S. Shows the values, but only the beginning of the article. The pdf file is about halfway down the page. Tried to attach the pdf here but it seems beyond my abilities...

Panorama early 911 values

[whiterabbit]

I have a contary opinion here and think we will see more upside especially with 1974-89 cars. I would expect all air cooled cars to appreciate more in the next decade. Lots and lots of people with money now in their 40's getting older who are getting disillusioned with other investments and are seeing an air colled 911 as something fun and safe to own. I personally kow 3 people who have paid top dollar for 3.2's in the last year as they think (as do I) that these cars will be very hard to find soon.

As for Europe I am there very often and whether the Euro tanks or not the demand for air cooled 911's will only increase. There are just not enough cars available anymore and whether there is a reccesion or not the kind of people who are buying these cars are generally well insulated already and paying with cash.

Todays price will look like a bargain soon I think and even the beater 10k mid year 911 will disappear as the parts will become way more valuable than the sum.

[andoni510]

Here is some info on the prices of longhoods in the past few years. I wonder if the current prices shown from 2011 has increased significantly for the the E and T models. We all know the S prices is just way up there. Excellence :: Buyers Guide :