when will the bubble pop ?

[comintern]

Originally Posted by COLB

I thought yours was a very well though out post. I would offer that there is one aspect of certainty: the capital stock of the United States, including population, is growing, and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. This means that over the long term, the collective value of the U.S. stock market is to going go up:



This has been true since the foundation of the Dow, and is something that is sufficiently certain to justify the wisdom of investing in an index with a long term outlook.

There may be no certainty except death & taxes, but the benefits of dollar cost averaging and long term investing are as close to certain as you can get.

And yes, hope you don't hit 67 in late 2008. But if you do, don't panic.

When you are considering the implications of this given, also consider that there are more people and more money now than 10 years ago, and there will be more of both in 2025.

But the supply of air-cooled Porsches manufactured is fixed. It ain't going up. So supply is relatively inelastic.

Preferences may change, of course -- and interest in old cars may wane with time. But you are decades from seeing enough old geezers dying off that 60s-80s Porsches have the limited appeal of Model Ts. (and even '23 Model T coupes are still worth a suitcase of money.)

The foam may blow off the top of the market (as Matt Monsen describes) -- but there is a firm floor rising below the foam.

Your graph has some funky metrics I have not seen before. Why the vertical compression near the order of magnitude?

[mobius911]

That's log scale. In this case it's useful because the values cover such a broad range and log scale compresses it.

[rdwinelover]

Sucks if you bought in 1929 as it took over 20 years to break even... History repeats itself.

[kennykimk2]

Porsche.
Love to drive
Love the look
Racing history. Love It!

Bubble talk, Stock market, Fed and etc. Not loving it.

Let's go out and just drive!

[COLB]

Originally Posted by rdwinelover

Sucks if you bought in 1929 as it took over 20 years to break even... History repeats itself.

And if you bought in 1933 you quadrupled your money by 1937.

That is why trying to time the market is a fools errand -- unless you make your money on commissions.

But to your point, the stock market would have to crash to around 3600 from its current ~18,000 to match the losses of the Great Depression.

Could it happen? Maybe. But I'm not seeing it. I also don't have a bomb shelter in my backyard, so some might call me risk tolerant.

[hierogk]

Sorry to reopen old thread, but it is time for bubble to burst. I just bought.

1984 gray market targa

[Matt Monson]

No.

[trader220]

Baring global economic meltdown the market for these cars is not going to implode. You probably won't see the wild appreciation of the last two years.

[soundbehindyou]

Getting back to the original thought of this thread, I am seeing 993 prices soften. Cars are sitting and I am seeing a back slide in prices recently. My thoughts are: too rapid appreciation in the last 2 years and the "new glut" of 993 buyers have bought.
As an owner of a 993 I will be hoping for a leveling off so more people can be exposed to these great cars and enter the market, therefore seeing a slow increase in value once again.

[Matt Monson]

A backslide in asking prices doesn't automatically mean a market contraction. It just means sellers were asking above market price previously. Selling price can remain unchanged in that circumstance.

[galileo]

very true

[NYNick]

Originally Posted by soundbehindyou

Getting back to the original thought of this thread, I am seeing 993 prices soften. Cars are sitting and I am seeing a back slide in prices recently. My thoughts are: too rapid appreciation in the last 2 years and the "new glut" of 993 buyers have bought.
As an owner of a 993 I will be hoping for a leveling off so more people can be exposed to these great cars and enter the market, therefore seeing a slow increase in value once again.

You're lucky to be an owner. Forget watching the market...try buying a nice 993. You'll quickly find there are no bargains out there...unless maybe you're shopping Cabs.

[specialtyoneinc]

I feel like the majority of 911's have finally leveled off in the past 6 months but the good ones will hold their value if not gradually increase in the years to come.

The 964 Coupe (manual) market is crazy right now. Good ones get swooped up within 24hours and there are tons of neglected examples out there fetching ridiculous prices. With the popularity of the Singer/RWB/Magnus cars and limited productions numbers everyone seems to be after them.