when will the bubble pop ?

[ThomasVDA]

Hehe - let me rephrase that: they are not driving their cars. They are showcasing their investments on a saturday or sunday - mostly this boils down to parking illegally right in front of the bar or restaurant they frequent, going back and forth to the car for fifteen times (to get their wallet, their sunglasses, their jacket, their notebook, their laptop, putting back the jacket, putting back the notebook, etc - you get the picture). And then they slowly drive back home, put it in storage until the next social event, and take the Evoque to drop off the kids at school.

[Nick Triesch]

Yup, like in New Porsche Beach in Southern Cal!

[vracer]

Originally Posted by Nick Triesch

Yup, like in New Porsche Beach in Southern Cal!

Very good, Nick, but I thought that was Ferrari country.

[vracer]

But, back on topic: "Those who do not remember history are condemned to repeat it."

Back in 1989, I had a friend who was offered (what was then) a LOT of money for a car. He sold it, and then watched the car go up $10,000 per month for a year. Another year later, he could have bought a similar condition car for half what he sold for. Imagine how much fun the 'top-of-the-market' 1990 buyer had watching 3/4 of his "investment" wither away.

Twenty five years later those cars are worth about three times that 1990 purchase price, but said person would have to have a real love for the car, or nerves of steel. Or both.

[sugarwood]

Which car went up $120,000 in 1 year back in 1990?

[Matt Monson]

There's always going to be stories, but they often don't define the market. In 1989 I worked for an auto broker in the Bay Area. He bought the rights for a Ferrari F40 that wasn't even going to be made until 1999. He paid 750k and sold them a day later for 1.25M. Current owner could maybe sell for that.

But that means nothing to 911scs. I hate the Ferrari examples thrown around as evidence of the Porsche bubble. A half million car has no relevance to a $30-50k car.

[trader220]

The market feels toppy to me. I am seeing a lot of cars listed at high prices and not selling. I have my own car out there at a very high price ( okay I am not in a rush to sell it).

964's in particular have some really strong asking prices but I don't see many selling at those prices. I was watching a 964 which sold off of Rennlist for 35k and then was offered all over the net for $45k, $41k and now it can be had for $38.5 k. Yea thats still a high price compared to a year ago and I know its only 1 car.

If this was the US equity market I would say we had a revaluation of the prices and now we're in "back and fill" mode... basically we had a price adjustment and now were hanging at new levels slightly below the recent highs.

[HugoBear]

I would agree trader 220. I, by no means think we are in a bubble but a lot of folks have gotten way ahead of the market. A reasonably priced car will still sell in hours.

[Matt Monson]

Trader, I agree with that assessment. In a thread over on RL I called it the froth. There was a head on this thing that's frothing off a little bit. That's very different than a bubble popping.

[HugoBear]

yes, that's what it seems like in my area.

[vracer]

Originally Posted by Matt Monson

A half million car has no relevance to a $30-50k car.

I generally agree with Matt, but I love cliches. "A rising tide lifts all boats." I think many here forget that most of us own 'driver quality' cars, not 'collector quality'. While the car I mentioned above was a Ferrari, it was driver quality; that is why my friend decided to sell.

This sure looks like a bubble to me, but that may be at least partly due to the real estate market here in the SF area. My wife just sold a 'mid century modern' house for an heir from South Carolina. The house had not been updated since it was built. He said, "Where I live this would be about $185,000". It sold for $1,185,000, with multiple offers.

If you've heard of the "greater fool" theory, my question is, when are we going to run out of fools? If you can sell your car for enough money to make a really positive change in your life, this is a good time to sell. They MAY be up in a year, but they WILL be down in two to five years.

Personally, I'm driving and enjoying. I realize this in not money-in-the-bank.

[Matt Monson]

Originally Posted by vracer

I generally agree with Matt, but I love cliches. "A rising tide lifts all boats." I think many here forget that most of us own 'driver quality' cars, not 'collector quality'. While the car I mentioned above was a Ferrari, it was driver quality; that is why my friend decided to sell.

I think that cliche also has an application to my froth comments. So we've got $200k '74 Carreras and $40K '74 911 normals. The froth comes off that Carrera and it's going to be $20-30k. It comes off the normal and it's $5k. To me that's still not a popping bubble. The bubble popping would be that Carrera losing 25-50% of it's value in 12 months or less.

[trader220]

I dont think its a bubble. Prices are settling in at these higher levels. The days of buying a G50 car with sub 100k miles in nice condition for $25k are over. Same for the 964's.

Here is an example of what I was talking about earlier:

Porsche 911 Carrera | eBay

That car will not sell in the $40's, at least not anytime soon ( meaning this year ). The market for 150k mile plain g50 car is not there.

[Arne2]

Originally Posted by trader220

That car will not sell in the $40's, at least not anytime soon ( meaning this year ). The market for 150k mile plain g50 car is not there.

Certainly not for black, GP white or guard's red. A less common color might help push it up a bit, but still probably not to that level.

[trader220]

The market is not at $47,500 on a 150k mile g50 coupe no matter what the color

[Matt Monson]

Originally Posted by trader220

The market is not at $47,500 on a 150k mile g50 coupe no matter what the color

No it is not. I only just now clicked your link. When you said "in the $40's" I was thinking a car at $40-42.5k. $47,500 buy it now? Get lost.

I think an indication of how far off in the weeds he is would be how many views, 153? That means people see it on the search results and don't even click into the auction to see what it is because they have already dismissed it.

[Macroni]

Great conversation.... I tend to think it is not a bubble but there are those that use the rising market to sell paint jobs. Meaning a #1 will tend to hold its value but a driver quality or non-number matching is a risk at a quickly increased asking price... example the Green 67 DBS hotrod.

[trader220]

Yea I am heart broken to see the cars from my buddy at DBS getting price slashed LOL. Maybe he can drum up some action under a different name?

[Samdance]

So, we are a year out from the original post.

Is the consensus that the market has topped, but not declining?

Do you think it will recede? Will prices continue to rise?

It is an interesting thread but I would be interested to hear what the more experienced members think about the market as it stands today.

SD

[gregoryp]

Don't think it has topped out yet. Been trying to buy a car for the last two years (more seriously the last year) and even with cash in hand you can't even get a seller to respond as most times the car sells to the first person who responds. As long as that is happening people who want a car will have to pay the asking price or buy something else. Currently it seems people are still willing to pay. There are some cars out there that are priced extremely high and haven't sold, but they are extremely high and then you have to start looking at other cars. I was seriously considering a cayman vs. spending similar money on a 911 and then having to put a bunch of money into it to restore it. The end of last year saw prices shoot up, but so far this year the price increase has tapered off a bit, bit I think there is more cars popping up for sale. At the end of last year I think people were afraid to get priced out of the market. I know I was and at some when the price gets to high it outweighs the benefit of having a car like this and people only buy them to park in the garage.