when will the bubble pop ?

[Matt Monson]

You can search my post history. I explained how it happened to the 356 market, and the longnose market and is now happening to the IB cars. Too long to re-write and too busy at work today to find it for myself.

[speeder]

[QUOTE=ficke;8016053]

Originally Posted by speeder

If you cannot answer that question, it's a bubble. If you do not agree, you don't know what a bubble is.

QUOTE]

I guess you are the right thinking person? and to disagree with you is wrong? only to you.

I do not agree that we have a bubble, there is froth, but there is a lot of staying power to the increase in value of 911's.
911's were under appreciated for years and were viewed as a fall back car that could always be found, cheap. The price's were stagnate when other cars were rising and there was the gospel spread by people in the know, like Bruce Anderson, to buy the newest you can afford. Now we have a crop of younger people who think 65-89 911's are 'Classic' Porsche and do not even associate with 356 as being a Porsche. We also have old 356 guys who do not like to dice it up in modern traffic with their 356 and a early long hood has the feel of a simple early Porsche but with performance that can deal with in modern traffic.
long hood 911's have matched 356's in desirability and has a much broader market and I believe will never fall back to the cheap car slot. Water pumpers have nicely filled that. Even Boxster are fighting with 914's for the cheap track car position.

Very sorry, did not mean to come off this way. It's a frequent problem for me, posting before espresso does its magic in the morning.

I believe very firmly that most all older Porsches have value. Some quite a bit, others not as much but they all have value as well-made mechanical objects, etc. I was referring specifically to the early car market, which has gone bonkers in a way that cannot be explained using any free-market rules or logic, therefore it's a bubble. Impact bumper cars are not at all in a bubble, IMO, they are simply enjoying a "rising tide" effect from crazy early car prices.

I shopped for '73 RSes back in about 2005, I can remember that the most expensive ones were around $100k, give or take, and there was a good supply for sale worldwide. $100k seemed really ambitious on the part of the seller at the time, good matching #s cars were around for $60-70k. Beautiful '73 911S coupes were in the $20s.

I'm not talking about prices back in 1965. I'm talking about 2005. Seinfeld had his cars, other people that are known in the Porsche world had their hoarded RSes and '67 911Ses, etc. There was plenty of demand for good early cars, but 911Ts were sort of a dime-a-dozen. I got offered a '73 black 911T targa for under $20k that was truly in showroom concours condition. I can't even guess what it would be worth now.

I'm pretty sure that they were undervalued then.

Fast-forward to oh, say 2011 or 2012. A good early 911S is what, $60-70k? And now they are $150-200k? Anyone think that's not a bubble? Normal appreciation? It's a massive run-up in prices, with lowly 911Ts along for the ride...call it what you will if you don't like the word "bubble".

My 80 year old dad has lived through all kinds of crazy financial bubbles, (and is familiar with the ones before he was born), during the last RE bubble here in SoCal he pointed out that it was something like the 423rd RE bubble since the time of ancient Rome, which actually had a RE bubble itself.

And still, I went out to dinner with people who did not believe we were in a bubble. Seemingly normal people who use knives and forks that did not understand what a bubble is. They honestly thought that their houses that had appreciated 20% annually for the last 5 years were going to continue going up. I did a face-palm. They ate schit soon after, since they all sucked all the $$ out of their houses even if they hadn't bought them recently.

A bubble is a bubble is a bubble, no matter what the item being discussed.

[dporsche74]

Never!..!!!!>.!>!!
It is how it is now.... collector cars are recession proof ...proven time and time again..
Rare low production 911 $$$$ .. whata fun hobby to have .. when junk turns to gold..were all feelin lucky...

[mattC2993]

Values move up and down but long term almost everything goes up. I think this is just the general inflationary characteristic of our economy that most people accept as the norm. How much did your first car/house cost? What did your first job pay? Everything goes up as the value of money goes down but not necessarily to the same degree. $10k Porsches are now $30k. The economy might come crashing down one day but there is no point in worrying about that.

[wgwollet]

Speedster.....good points.

Bubble, yes the cars have gone up, it's a bubble, yes,
The cars will reach a point of no return .....but for the wealthy.....in theory just not a lot of inventory. But this bubble could be 2 years out and not burst like the 2008 housing bubble...the burst will be small or not at all just a small leveling of prices.

Remember, we talked about this before, 1) low inventory 2) hand built low production cars 3) a world car not just relaying on any one economy 4) young people besides baby boomers like the cars.....356's are now too old for the younger buyers 5) longevity off the 911 and newer owners wanting one in their herds.

[Sunroof]

A hundred years ago, a steak dinner was 25-cents, twelve years ago a restored Porsche 911 1973.5T was under $10,000. Back in the 60's I used to gas up my dad's 1967 Cadillac for less then 8 cents per gallon. Yep, everything goes up. Their is no bubble! Its what your willing to pay for what you desire. So the real question is, do people have more money then sense?!

[ficke]

[QUOTE=speeder;8017175]

Originally Posted by ficke

Very sorry, did not mean to come off this way. It's a frequent problem for me, posting before espresso does its magic in the morning.

I believe very firmly that most all older Porsches have value. Some quite a bit, others not as much but they all have value as well-made mechanical objects, etc. I was referring specifically to the early car market, which has gone bonkers in a way that cannot be explained using any free-market rules or logic, therefore it's a bubble. Impact bumper cars are not at all in a bubble, IMO, they are simply enjoying a "rising tide" effect from crazy early car prices.

I shopped for '73 RSes back in about 2005, I can remember that the most expensive ones were around $100k, give or take, and there was a good supply for sale worldwide. $100k seemed really ambitious on the part of the seller at the time, good matching #s cars were around for $60-70k. Beautiful '73 911S coupes were in the $20s.

I'm not talking about prices back in 1965. I'm talking about 2005. Seinfeld had his cars, other people that are known in the Porsche world had their hoarded RSes and '67 911Ses, etc. There was plenty of demand for good early cars, but 911Ts were sort of a dime-a-dozen. I got offered a '73 black 911T targa for under $20k that was truly in showroom concours condition. I can't even guess what it would be worth now.

I'm pretty sure that they were undervalued then.

Fast-forward to oh, say 2011 or 2012. A good early 911S is what, $60-70k? And now they are $150-200k? Anyone think that's not a bubble? Normal appreciation? It's a massive run-up in prices, with lowly 911Ts along for the ride...call it what you will if you don't like the word "bubble".

My 80 year old dad has lived through all kinds of crazy financial bubbles, (and is familiar with the ones before he was born), during the last RE bubble here in SoCal he pointed out that it was something like the 423rd RE bubble since the time of ancient Rome, which actually had a RE bubble itself.

And still, I went out to dinner with people who did not believe we were in a bubble. Seemingly normal people who use knives and forks that did not understand what a bubble is. They honestly thought that their houses that had appreciated 20% annually for the last 5 years were going to continue going up. I did a face-palm. They ate schit soon after, since they all sucked all the $$ out of their houses even if they hadn't bought them recently.

A bubble is a bubble is a bubble, no matter what the item being discussed.

Fair enough and what you said makes a lot of sense and a much more enjoyable read than you are an "idiot if you do not think like me"
The part of the market rise fueled by speculators will come down, the part fueled by enthusiast will make the new norm, how much is each I do not know but I will agree when the speculators leave there will be a price drop and that can be labeled 'bubble'
But it will never go back down to the cheap sports car alternative, the market has discovered these cars, I believe it is more than just the "flavor of the month". So there is a new norm that is much higher than before.
In 2004 I brought a no rust highly optioned 67S for 15K and was also offered a no rust, rough interior 70S for 7.5K I thought they were under appreciated valuable cars at the time, now I also believe they are not nearly worth what people are paying today.
But any fast rising market will overshoot.

[WANNA930]

I believe you are simply seeing the value of these cars leveling off with the rest of the collector car market. A nice 69 Camaro costs $100k. Remember Porsche is thought of as a luxury brand and should demand more money especially if you compare orig pricing.

73 and down will continue to rise but those that are paying huge bucks for say a plain jane 85 will see an adjustment when the market sees what else say $40k can buy. By the way there was a huge price drop in muscle cars in the last 5 years.

[whiterabbit]

Originally Posted by WANNA930

.

73 and down will continue to rise but those that are paying huge bucks for say a plain jane 85 will see an adjustment when the market sees what else say $40k can buy. By the way there was a huge price drop in muscle cars in the last 5 years.

I don't agree. Tell me what is better than a perfect impact bumper 911 at 40k? I can't think of anything. In my case I also have a 308 Ferrari worth about the same and the 3.2 is way nicer to own and drive. To me the impact bumper 911 is one of the cheapest ways to own a reliable sporting classic car that can also be used in historic tours.

I think a perfect 40k impact bumper 911 is about the best deal out there right now.

[PushingMyLuck]

The mistake everyone makes is giving reasons that were just as valid 5 years ago, when these cars were selling for $12k.
So, it's not low production number that caused prices to spike. The the 5 years bull market.

The bubble will deflate once the stock market corrects and the economy goes south.
That is what caused the inflation, and is what will cause the deflation.

Low production numbers were low when 3.2's were selling for $12k.
That is NOT the reason they are now high in price.

[nota]

Originally Posted by WANNA930

I believe you are simply seeing the value of these cars leveling off with the rest of the collector car market. A nice 69 Camaro costs $100k. Remember Porsche is thought of as a luxury brand and should demand more money especially if you compare orig pricing.

73 and down will continue to rise but those that are paying huge bucks for say a plain jane 85 will see an adjustment when the market sees what else say $40k can buy. By the way there was a huge price drop in muscle cars in the last 5 years.

any old 69 camaro is not a 100k car
a few unrusted z28's with the right options maybe worth that
in like new condition with the correct original rare motor

my dispute is not the rare cars value like a true original ''S''

but the older 912 or 911 with the non-MFI motors
swaped motors ect all going up
that is where there is a current BUBBLE

[PushingMyLuck]

An old Camaro is more like a $25k car.

[speeder]

I think that it absolutely follows market fundamentals that old 911s have risen in price, just not to the degree and at the rate that early cars have.

[Matt Monson]

We used to say that all Carreras as were $20k cars. Either you bought a $20k car or you bought a $10k car and in the next couple of years you put ten into it.

Basic economics here. An engine rebuild used to be $5~8k and a gearbox $2~4k. Now those prices are close to double. And paint costs have gone way up. So it stands to reason that if enough of them got major maintenance of those big items the value of the whole segment goes up. Why the change in price happened so quickly is another story. But it happening was inevitable.

[ASD]

what about VW bus bubble? Its been going on awhile.
Everything from the 60's, 70's, and now 80's is on the rise. People want what they wanted when they were young but couldn't afford then.
My wife just bought the Barbie RV Camper she had when she was 5. Without a Barbie.

[wannaporsche]

When it comes to the value of a well sorted car, the question isn't not all just the wacky economy. In reality it costs an owner today more to restore and keep a 35 year old 911 on the road than it did an owner 10 years ago to keep the same, then 25 year old 911, on the road. The cost of keeping a 45 year old 911 on the road (and looking good) is even higher. Once investments like restoration improvements are made in dearly held cars, an owner is going to ask a price that reflects the added value invested.

I think 911 value is as much a result of physics (cost of exerting against natural erosion over time) as it is the volatile nature of economy.

[ficke]

So the 67S I brought for 15K in 2004 I sold when the bubble burst in 2008 for 47,500I figured I could buy another one for far less money because the bubble burst then , right? or so I thought. So we are in a bubble now and then and before and it burst and seems to recover.

[speeder]

Difficult to find a great '67 S for any price now, probably over $200k from a friend if you could.

[ficke]

Originally Posted by speeder

Difficult to find a great '67 S for any price now, probably over $200k from a friend if you could.

I know that is why bubble talk in 2008 I took seriously cost me serious money

[PushingMyLuck]

Do some research on bubbles.
There is a famous saying "bubbles tend to last far longer and grow much larger than most anyone expects".

The bubble is at the top when it is INCONCEIVABLE that prices can go down.
When surgeons quit their jobs in order to flip Porsches.

See the chart below: