when will the bubble pop ?

[nota]

thanks mods

may be a civil discussion can continue

[comintern]

Originally Posted by PushingMyLuck

The mistake everyone makes is giving reasons that were just as valid 5 years ago, when these cars were selling for $12k.
So, it's not low production number that caused prices to spike. The the 5 years bull market.

The bubble will deflate once the stock market corrects and the economy goes south.
That is what caused the inflation, and is what will cause the deflation.

Low production numbers were low when 3.2's were selling for $12k.
That is NOT the reason they are now high in price.

Don't forget the dollar is losing value at a fast clip (~6% a year). Everything else being equal, the $100k car is going to be priced at $134K in 5 years due to increased money supply alone.
Com

[PushingMyLuck]

USD has been fairly steady against EUR over the last 2 and 5 years.
But, yes, this would be a more valid catalyst than "they're not making any more of em"

[COLB]

Originally Posted by comintern

Don't forget the dollar is losing value at a fast clip (~6% a year). Everything else being equal, the $100k car is going to be priced at $134K in 5 years due to increased money supply alone.
Com

The trend is highly dependent on your time horizon. The past two years has seen a strengthening Euro, but it is less clear if you look further. Here is the 5 year EURO rate:



The remnimbi looks ripe for a devaluation. The Yen is weak. The Euro zone economy looks weaker than the U.S.

Hard to say what will happen -- especially if China slips into a debt crisis.

[Mr.Lazza]

In May issue of Octane magazine, page 45, Robert Coucher answers this question quite clearly: seems that we have the same opinion... early 911's are still undervalued compared to other contemporary sports car.
Enjoy reading

[cody818]

Thanks for the article! good read.

[CountD]

It's a good article, but he makes a mistake in the first paragraph. It should read 'pre-'74' because if he is saying 'pre-'73' he leaves out all of 1973 which of course you know just isn't true...

[nota]

i HAVE NO PROBLEM WITH a like new 911 ''S'' RS or other real hi-po cars
in factory spec all new bits ect

but the plain jane 911 or the 912 prices is where the bubble is
along with rusty heaps going for insane prices

[Vipergrün]

Anyone else see the 83SC for 35K? Seriously? Decent car, maybe 20K, but 35K? The guy must be retirement planning....dang.

[Uncle Enzo]

I was shocked at some of the prices being asked for a few mid years at Hershey. They were nice examples and pushing 30k.

[KNS]

Originally Posted by Vipergrün

Anyone else see the 83SC for 35K? Seriously? Decent car, maybe 20K, but 35K? The guy must be retirement planning....dang.

Anyone see the 73.5 T listed here for just under $200K? For a T... I wonder what price he's really shooting for?

[whiterabbit]

FYI the 1972 911t on here last week sold in one day at 85k. There is also a low mile SC on rennlist for 48k, not correct to say the 1983 SC on here is way overpriced considering the seller is well known for quality work and cars.

[mobius911]

I like the conclusion of the article above, and sure, I'm a longhood owner so of course I agree. But his argument is pretty weak. The reason that early 911s are moving up in value is the halo effect from the 918? Not buying it.

[nonthaburi2000]

what car was out or reach when you were in High school and only the rich kid could have one ? maybe driving his fathers car

thats probably what you want now !

[speeder]

Originally Posted by nonthaburi2000

what car was out or reach when you were in High school and only the rich kid could have one ? maybe driving his fathers car

thats probably what you want now !

Any new car was out of reach when I was in HS. That means nothing to me now.

[msort81]

Originally Posted by Vipergrün

Anyone else see the 83SC for 35K? Seriously? Decent car, maybe 20K, but 35K? The guy must be retirement planning....dang.

Agreed even with the sellers credentials ( I saw the car also listed at Early S where the seller did and incredible nut and bolt restoration of a 69S). But $35K seems wildly ambitious for a very ordinary looking silver SC with an unremarkable interior, and its only really seemingly significant selling point is the updated AC & 9" Fuchs.

[fryardds]

Originally Posted by mobius911

But his argument is pretty weak. The reason that early 911s are moving up in value is the halo effect from the 918? Not buying it.

Agreed Jeff, current Porsche models have had no effect what so ever on run up of prices of the classic models. The author says, "classic car market has shot up 54% since 2009" but doesn't connect the dots to arrive at the correct answer.

Central banks bailed out the big banks of the world and thus prevented the vaporization of the financial systems of those countries, ours included. They have since held interest rates a zero and printed mountains of colored paper in the form of QE.

This has once again created a significant mis-allocation of capital and fostered rampant speculation in several markets (ag land, art, and classic cars). It will be interesting to watch how this unravels like equities and real estate have previously.

[PushingMyLuck]

Originally Posted by fryardds

central banks bailed out the big banks of the world and thus prevented the vaporization of the financial systems of those countries, ours included. They have since held interest rates a zero and printed mountains of colored paper in the form of qe.

This has once again created a significant mis-allocation of capital and fostered rampant speculation in several markets (ag land, art, and classic cars). It will be interesting to watch how this unravels like equities and real estate have previously.

+1

[SilberUrS6]

Originally Posted by fryardds

A
This has once again created a significant mis-allocation of capital and fostered rampant speculation in several markets (ag land, art, and classic cars). It will be interesting to watch how this unravels like equities and real estate have previously.

The ag land thing is personal for me - we are selling our farmland currently. The price for the land is so good that we can't say no to the deal. Since the land will never be any good for anything other than farming (location being the big thing), this is about the top price we will ever get for it.

I might not have bought that longhood 912 that my cousin's husband was selling for $6500 four years ago (that was a serious mistake on my part to let that car go), but at least I can cash in on one bubble.

[wally509]

So what y'all are saying is that the buyers of these $100K+ longhood 911's are people making $30-$40k/year and banks are giving them six figure car loans there is no way in h-ll they can pay back to buy them? If I understood correctly, that's what blew up the housing market then (mostly) caused the subsequent overall meltdown.

I've only owned an air cooled 911 for a couple years so I will probably get flamed for chiming in here but...I will share my experience from another until recently undervalued car that I have been involved with for a very long time.

That car is the 4 cylinder Austin Healey made from 1953-1956. They began to "run up" in the early 2000's. In 2002 a really nice BN2 model could be had for about $20K and a 100M for about $40K. They had essentially doubled+ by the crash in '07 and guess what? The crash hardly effected them and today those cars are $60-70K/$120-150K respectively.

My OPINION is what goes on is that one looks at how much he could have bought a fully restored 911S for 5 years ago, sees how much they are selling for now and screams there's a bubble that's going to burst any second on these. What one really needs to do is look back to what a fully restored/top of the line 911S was selling for 30-35 years ago and stick that into a compound interest calculator with 5,6,7,8% rate for a 35 year term and go from there.

FLAME ON BOYS!