Recent changes to Craig's list and Auto Trader
 

I look at both San Diego Craig's list (how I bought my car) and the Auto Trader from time to time and I notice that both now have very few 3.2 cars advertised. And if they are they are, they are priced through the roof! Just in a few months time! Also I notice there are a ton of 1999-2002 cars in these pubs all the time. Mostly advertised around $18,000-$20,000. If someone wanted one of those cars they are a deal and a half! I think the 3.2 cars are moving to the specialty dealers. Interesting times indeed!

This is me. I'm looking. :D SmileWavy

I just sold an 85 3.2 and jumped to a 2002 996… While the 99 to 2001 are indeed attractive from a price perspective, the 3.6 engine in the 2002+ are noticeably stronger!

I've only purchased one thing ever off of Craigslist - my '84 Carrera. I picked it up in 2008 for $12,000, it had been for sale for a week or so. Ruby Red coupe, 101,000 miles, excellent mechanical condition but AC not working, some cracks in the dash and front seats with some tears (rest of interior in fantastic shape). Nice paint but a few scratches and some rock chips. Zero rust, always a SoCal and Arizona car.

PPI showed healthy engine (very little oil consumption since I've owned it). I'm the third owner and it has full maintenance history going back to 1984. It came from the factory with 16x7 and 16x8 Fuchs (which I've got in storage), an unusual and uncommon option in 1984. I'm curious as to what it's worth today because I'd have a heck of time trying to replace it if something happened to it.

I remember when the economy tanked after 2006-07. I was amazed at how many 911SCs and 3.2s were up for sale, everywhere you looked.

This will happen again, as it does for every boom and bust cycle.

Nothing doubles in 2 years without a major correction,
as nothing in the fundamentals has changed in 2 years.

Your car is probably worth $22k now.
It may be worth $12k again 2 years from now.

What economic principles are you citing again?

I no longer have a vested interest in the air-cooled game, but what do you consider a fundamental change? Other than the passage of time and increased desirability?

What's fundamentally changed about a Ferrari 250 GTO in the last 20 years to justify its astronomical gain?

I've had pretty good luck buying and selling cars on craigslist -- but I tend to be selling & buying inexpensive cars. For more high dollar cars you tend to attract a lot of tire kickers & guys trying to get big discounts.

How's the transmission?

Hard to really judge yours based on the info & no pictures. Factory 7&8s are worth a fair bit by themselves. Those might balance the seat & dash issues a bit.

Maybe $23-26k. Less if the 915 needs work.

BTW -- if PML is discussing either economics or Porsches, he is generally talking about things he has read about, but doesn't really understand.

Estimating future prices of cars (or guitars, or watches, or Beanie Babies) is just guessing. Some guessing is more educated than other guessing.

The transmission shifts fine actually though once a while it is little stiff coming out of third.

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1398130141.jpg

True, though I wouldn't roll Beanie Babies in with Rolexes or legit guitars. No doubt there is downside risk in any high dollar collectible.

Despite the blathering about bubbles and crashes, etc by folks like PML -- consider for a second what the actual downside risk is of buying an air-cooled 911. Unless you are buying a concours trailer queen -- and there are very few 74-89 cars that fit that definition -- it is a car that you are buying to drive.

Buy any decent 911 for ~$25k, and what is the least you can expect to sell it for in 5 years -- even if the economy goes into another recession? $15k? And that is a true swoon, sold at the bottom of the market. After 5 years of fun.

Congrats -- that is a better economic performance than you can expect on almost ANY $25k you might buy new, and people drop that coin by the thousands every single day.

And if you take care of it, you have the prospect of breaking even, or maybe even seeing a small financial gain -- perhaps enough to cover your routine maintenance costs.

Name me a new or late model used car that offers the same prospect at the same price point.

Sorry -- I'm just losing it on people worrying themselves silly about possibly "losing" 5 grand on a car -- when that is GUARANTEED depreciation within two years of buying any new or used car of comparable value.

People worry too much. And as someone smart once posted here -- people regret most the cars they didn't buy.

Great looking car -- love the color. The deep rears look the business, and the polished petals really work with the paint.

It is different, and has great curb appeal.

^^^this

Colb,

Thanks, the front has been lowered slightly since that picture. I'm not crazy about polished Fuchs and would someday like to have them redone so that what is currently polished would be a bright anodized with black background.

I tend to agree with you about polished wheels, but on a coupe with your color, they look right.

I agree. I like an all-silver look on the wheels, which I think looks great against a dark car. All-silver in a semi-gloss sort of look with anodize would be SO much better. :)

You'll get no argument from me on any of the above. :)

The huge flaw in your logic is ignoring maintenance costs for 5 years on the used 911.
A new car is not going to require a $20k engine rebuild, $5k gearbox rebuild, or $8k top end rebuild.

It is reasonable to expect to spend $2000-$3000 a year to keep an older car on the road that is getting 20k miles of annual driving.
I assume it's only more with a Porsche if parts prices are any indication.

So, you could buy a 911 for $25k.
It could go back to $15k in a serious recession. Just like stocks. Just like houses. Just like everything else speculative.
In that time, if you got unlucky and needed serious work done, you could EASILY be into the car for another $25k ($20k rebuild plus $5k misc. bits to sort it out)

That would have you sitting on a net loss of $30,000 in 5 years if the car was sold for $20k in 5 years time.
That is an ass kicking vis a vis the $5k depreciation on a Camry in 5 years (and virtually zero repair bills)

If you don't have money to play with, this is not the hobby for you if the Black Swan decides to visit your car.
Maybe it was for the salt of the earth types 2 years ago, but now it's only for folks with real money to spare.

PS: Someone tell Silber that he owes me an apology. That obsessed windbag was proven wrong yet again.
http://forums.pelicanparts.com/porsche-marketplace-discussion/807197-report-my-day-hershey-picss.html

To quote the great Lloyd Bentsen...

"I knew Ferrari 250 GTO.
Ferrari 250 GTO was a friend of mine.
This, sir, is no Ferrari 250 GTO"

You should not expect to rebuild an engine or transmission on a 911 you paid $25k for -- and your $20k number for an engine rebuild is either for a custom performance motor build at a high end shop, or a figment of your over-active imagination.

How many 911s get driven 20k a year? I expect it is a number approaching zero. But yes, there is a cost for keeping an old car on the road. It is not $2000 per year -- especially if you do your own routine maintenance. And if you are paying someone else to maintain your classic cars then you shouldn't be fretting about a couple of grand on the sales price.

you assume things you know nothing about. An major service for a 911 is a less than two hundred bucks if you DIY (Oil, air, and fuel filters, belts, oil change, valve adjustment, valve cover gaskets), and the major cost is the oil. That is due every 15k miles -- which is probably three years of driving for the average owner. Most change the oil annually, which is $70-100 depending on the brand you use. A regularly serviced engine can go 200-300k miles without needing a rebuild. Clutches go well over 100k on cars that are properly driven and not tracked. If you paid $25k and your car needs an engine, tranny, and clutch, well...you are not very good at buying cars.

Yeah -- and a sinkhole could open up under your house. Or a tree could fall on it. And the market could bounce back to $25k again within two years if you don't panic and sell at the bottom. If you are speculating on a $25k car, you are foolish. It is consumption that has the prospect of retaining its value and maybe appreciating. That's it. and your $20k number is pure fantasy.

That is also totally imaginary. The average owner does not do ANY of those rebuilds within a five year ownership period, and only a dumbass who doesn't know what they are talking about calculates a "$20k engine rebuild" and a "$8k top end rebuild" as separate things. The fact you don't know what either of those terms entails is ample demonstration that you should stop trying to advise new posters who may not realize that you are an internet poser with no relevant experience.

Umm, yeah. If you don't have disposable income, and are going to take your car to a mechanic every time it drips a little oil, this is not the car for you. No one suggested otherwise.

Your flirtation with the hobby is fine and all. And whether or not you end up buying a car is immaterial to me. More power to ya for going to Hershey. Even your confused economics lectures are fair game since even Warren Buffett doesn't know when the next recession is going to happen.

But seriously -- you really ought to stop giving advice to people that you don't even have the most basic qualification to give. Buy a car, get to know it for a few years, and then offer information on the ownership experience of a new buyer. But until then, you really should read more and post less.

The notion that someone would put 20,000 miles per year on a 25+ year old car, then have the entire motor and transmission grenade, only to turn around and be sold at the trough of the market is a pretty funny series of events.

By the way -- like MrBonus points out -- how exactly do you take a "$30k loss" on a $25k car that is worth $10k+ to any breaker's yard?

In the highly unlikely scenario that your motor completely grenaded -- and that is extremely rare with these cars -- you could still sell an intact, otherwise well-sorted but non-running car on ebay or craigslist for $10k+ in a flash. But that would be foolish.

Hell, I could buy a complete, running motor and drop it in myself for less than $5k, and keep the old one with the car for originality sake, or sell it as a core for $2-3k depending on what went wrong.

The depreciation on a new or late-model used car is a given -- EVERY SINGLE ONE is going to lose value at a rate of 10-15% per year. That is a fact, and has 100% likelihood.

In comparison, a 911 MIGHT require major mechanical work within 5 years of ownership. Presuming you don't buy it broken, maybe 1 in 20 cars. Maybe 1 in 50. Who knows? But I doubt more than 1 in 500 will actually grenade to the point they are undriveable. That is why these engines are commonly referred to as being "bulletproof". Even when they wear and leak, they still run.

Cars with worn synchros and worn valve guides can generally be driven indefinitely in that condition -- I have a friend who has put 20k+ miles on his 3.0 that has broken head studs. He drives it while he is building a 3.2 with PMOs to drop in.

So, guaranteed $10k depreciation vs. the small possibility you might have to invest in a major repair -- which of course you can partially recoup in the additional value a recent rebuild provides a car. And even then you can likely drive it and sell it "as is" at a $3-5k price discount, which still puts you a ahead relative to a new Camry.

You can discount the recession factor, as it would affect the value of used Camrys the same as it tanks Porsches, and maybe moreso.

Cars are bad investments. In the long term, the only people who make money on them are dealers. So if you are scared of taking a financial hit...well, don't buy a car. Any car. Certainly not a sports cars.

LOL, dude, just LOL. Here he is, spouting the same old lies. He's been "educated" on all this stuff before. He posts this stuff to get a rise out of you, and get you to respond.

Put him in the ignore bucket, and warn new posters to avoid his advice. He absolutely lives for this back-and-forth you're giving him.

LOL, so he went to Hersey after all? Talked down about it, I'm guessing. Looks like I trolled him into spending the whole day doing something he didn't want to do. LMAO.

Seriously, don't waste your time on this guy. He's not worth your effort.

The series of events that would required that are purely imaginary, made up and invented solely for the sake of internet argument.

IOW, TROLL.

He says it to get you to respond. It's nothing more than a troll to get you to arguing about it. First the false "facts", then turn the conversation to value judgements, where it is a discussion of opinion.

He has no intention of buying a Porsche. His only intention is to troll this forum, which is why these same "facts" get present several times. You'll notice he still makes up numbers and does crappy math. All on the wrong side of the equation, you'll notice. His math is really good when he's totalling up the downside.

Strange - almost like he's doing it on purpose.

When you take a step back, it's so ridiculous that it's hilarious.

All true, and I have ignored 95% of his drivel. I am uninterested in his mythical quest to buy a Porsche, or his baiting about specific cars for sale.

I am only weighing in where he is employing his misinformation against new posters with legit questions.

He can be a doofus all he wants, but it is wrong to let him to continue giving unchallenged clueless "advice" to people who are coming to this board for information -- not just idle conversation.

Anybody can predict a recession…it happens every 10 years or so. If you keep predicting it, sooner or later you'll be correct….just a matter of time. Then you can say: AHA! The market has corrected!

But owning and driving a classic car, any classic car, is of course with money you can spare, and can afford to fix if need be. I would venture to say there are very few of us here who ONLY own an air-cooled for DD. But planning for it to break down over 5 years, driving it 20k miles per year and doing the math associated with it? Um, that's really not what it's about for any of us I don't think.

These cars are meant to be driven and experienced, not over analyzed. If I did that, I'd never buy any classic car. For God's sake, it's not pure Economics. It's a sports car.

I drove my SC home from the golf course yesterday afternoon on a twisty road. Sure stuff is broken, doesn't work, not perfect, but boy, are the mechanicals right! I fell in love all over again, grinning and whooping.

THAT's what it's all about, not ROI.

Nick

-Deleted-

This is why no one in their right mind would trade a 1973 911T worth $25,000 for a 2014 Toyota Camry worth $25,000. One goes up the other goes down...but I am offered new cars for mine cars all the time.

I never got a guy who traded a 1963 Corvette even for a 1986 Chevy Pickup, both at the time were similar value.

Interesting!
If these are so rare, they sure do get a disproportionate amount of discussion on this forum.
Why do people constantly post about engine rebuilds and engine drops?
Why do I see so many ads that talk about top end or engine rebuilds?
The majority of 911s have under 200k miles on them.


Dumbass? I used the word "or".
It was said in the context of your misleading implication that 911's do not have any carrying costs, and are such a bargain compared to new cars. LMAO!
My point was that 911s have have some very high dollar maintenance items, including any of those 3 which would make them much more expensive to own than a new car.

The huge flaw in your logic is ignoring maintenance costs for 5 years on the used 911. A new car is not going to require a $20k engine rebuild, $5k gearbox rebuild, or $8k top end rebuild.



Actually, the price of used cars spiked up in this recession as credit was tightened. In fact, used car prices have been rising for 5 years straight.
In economics, we call used cars "substitute goods".
U.S. Used Car Prices Expected To Decline This Year - WSJ.com


Every thread I've read here has stated $20k for a rebuild.
If not $20k exactly how much does a stock 3.2 rebuild cost?
Please respond with a number only.


Pardon me for making the outlandish assumption that these "driver cars" can actually be driven daily.
With all the talk about "bulletproof" and "daily driver", here is my math:
40 miles commute. 5 days a week. 400 miles a week. 20,000 miles a year.


You're not paying attention.
It was stated in the context of needing an engine rebuild.

$25k Buy price
$20k Rebuild price
$5k Misc bits to sort out: suspension, tires, brakes, exhaust, etc.

$25k + $20k + $5k = $50k total cost

If there is a hypothetical recession and reversion to mean,
the car could be worth $20k again upon sale in a few years.

$20k - $50k = -$30k

I forgot to make my daily "my engine is still running fine" thread.

Well, obviously because it is a technical forum where people go for maintenance advice.

It is not a survey of all cars. No one goes to the technical forum to start a thread about the car they own that DOESN'T need any work! That should be obvious.

And even then, many of the people are rebuilding their motors because they want to -- not because they have to. They are installing performance parts, fixing leaks, and making repairs that are not necessarily mandatory, but as long as the motor is on the ground, they choose to do it.

And my point was that $20k or even $8k "maintenance items" are not routine. The routine maintenance costs for gaskets, belts, brake pads, filters etc is comparable to other European cars. And unless they bought a project, what the majority of Porsche DIY owners spend in 5 years on a solid car will be less than the depreciation of every single Camry owner. Even if that number is $2k per year.

And even if you shell out $2k to fix your transmission, or $8k for a top end (which is not an "average" figure) that will still pale to depreciation and maintenance costs on many new cars. Not all new cars have "free" dealer maintenance.

Of course prices have been rising the past few years -- the recession hit in 2008. Prices tanked for all cars in 2008 -- new car sales seized, and no one could get credit.

A used car might be a "substitute good" for a new car, but in the broader transportation market, riding the bus, taking a metro, or keeping the car you have is the more predominant effect. No one was buying crap in 2008-2009, and prices tanked across the market -- particularly since people couldn't get credit. The used vs new substitute effect didn't really start gaining traction until 2010-2011, when the normal supply for lease returns & trade-ins didn't materialize.

Show me a link where used cars were more expensive in 2008-2009 than they were in 2006-2007, and I will agree with you.

You mean every thread you post on you throw out this debunked number. There is no "stock rebuild" as every rebuild is going to vary based on what you replace and who does the work. Google it yourself. A $20k rebuild would be a performance build -- the equivalent of building a race motor. Sure people do it, but it is NOT normal. Maybe 1 in hundreds of full bottom end rebuilds would cost that much, and only because the owner chose to do it. And only a small percentage of rebuilds are "full" rebuilds. Go to the website's rebuild wizard and pick which parts you want to replace and get your own parts estimate.

I don't pardon you for idiotic straw man arguments that 80 mile per day commutes are average "daily driver" miles. And who said most 911s are "daily drivers"? They are sports cars -- and weekend drivers. You could daily drive a Ferrari if you wanted, but who does?

Insurance estimates for annual mileage is 12k, not 20k. "driven" sports cars tend to average closer to 5k a year, though there are plenty of cars floating around that have logged over 300k . Two have been in the marketplace in the past two weeks.

Your hypothetical equation is ridiculous because it is doubtful that 1 in 5000 cars might get a $20k engine rebuild in its entire service life.

That's just a stupid assumption, and it makes your whole value equation worthless.

As I said, even if you had extremely bad luck and your engine totally grenades, you can buy a working motor for $5k, and sell your broken core for up to 3k, depending on what broke and what is serviceable.

The bottom line is that a small percentage of maintained 911s at the $25k price point need a major component rebuild and every single Camry is going to depreciate -- and dealer maintenance on most new cars is not "free".

If you are scared of spending money on a car -- and you clearly are -- then buy a bike. There's no such thing as free chicken.

If $20k is so ludicrous for a rebuild, let me ask you again:
If not $20k exactly how much does a stock 3.2 rebuild cost?
Please respond with a number only.

So, on the one hand, 911's require almost no maintenance, and are cheaper to own than a Corolla.
On the other, there's no such thing as free chicken, and you need to be ready to spend money on a car. LMAO.

COLB, what do you think about this $17,000 maintenance bill?

Porsche 911 Carrera Targa 2 Door | eBay

Just like a crescent wrench... a tool that's not really good for anything.

Very nicely stated. LOL.

Link me a post where I ever mentioned a Corolla. I mentioned a Camry because a basic one can be had for around $25k. In five years, it will be worth maybe half that -- guaranteed.

If you put $2k a year for five years into a 911, you are spending a lot of money. The net between ownership costs is a wash, with the likely prospect of better residual value on the Porsche. The difference is that there is a very good chance you won't spend $2k per year that on your 911. And a small chance you might spend more. The new car depreciation is guaranteed.

As to your other point, all of my comments assume you bought the Porsche as a hobby car, and are doing your own maintenance, If that is NOT the case, then yes -- you are going to spend a lot of money. Never said otherwise.

As for this guy:

Sounds like a thorough rebuild of the transmission, and a new clutch, a targa top repair, and a Wevo shifter (which is totally optional).

Other than that, he had an engine out service -- they didn't even rebuild the engine.

The rest of it is pretty minor stuff -- oil return tubes, Oil lines, cap, rotor, switches, brake flush ("renewed" implies they didn't even replace the rotors), rear main seal, plugs -- this is 400-500 hundred in parts. Maybe a little more. One of the HVAC fans is expensive, the other isn't. I know because I did most of it myself last month, and much of the rest in the previous year -- and for a small fraction of what this guy spent. And my A/C works.

I can't see his itemized bill, but when you exclude the transmission rebuild, it sounds like he paid $7000-10000+ for maintenance items that a rookie DIY could do for 10% of that.

That doesn't make him an idiot, but it makes him the kind of owner that should have a lot of disposable income if he is going to own a 30 year old Porsche. It paints you as very hardheaded that you don't see the difference.

If you are like him, and plan on servicing your (theoretical) Porsche with a checkbook, it is an expensive proposition. If you can't afford it, buy a used Honda -- a new one will eat you alive with depreciation.

Other points worth considering:

This is why knowledgable posters on this board have suggested to you that if you are buying a car to drive, buying a car with 70k miles can be more expensive than a higher mileage car. Cars that aren't driven generally aren't maintained, either. That is why maintenance records are nice when you buy a car -- so you don't buy 30 years worth of deferred minor maintenance. Which this guy did all at once at a shop probably charging $100-125 an hour.

It is also why judging prices on Ebay cars is tough -- because a few pictures and glad-hand listings don't tell you whether the previous owner has taken care of the small stuff.

I don't see where we disagree on any of that.

Huh? Weren't you just saying they are WAY more costly to own than a 911 ??

If you are going to pay somebody to maintain your Porsche for you, you are probably better off eating the depreciation on a new or late model used car.

It is a pretty simple concept.

Read it out loud if that helps. ;) (there is a winky face to soften the sarcasm)