Is it me, or is the 911 price/demand bubble beginning to burst.

[enzoducoing]

Hello.
Is it just me?
I have been looking at more and more cars that seem to last longer in the market than two months ago and there seems to be also more options out there. It would seem that the market prices hit a celling that the remaining buyers are no longer willing to pay, and the demand has topped out. What do you think? Are we getting ready for a burst? It has happened before on the 356 market.
Cheers.

[Matt Monson]

I don't think we are seeing it burst. Many of the cars being brought to market are in lesser condition than what was on offer 6 months ago. Couple that with overly optimistic sellers who are trying to capitalize on the run up and you have average cars sitting unsold because people are asking nice car prices for them.

I think that the sellers have just stepped in front of the price increases. Their expectations are unreasonable and that's all that needs an adjustment.

[MrBonus]

I agree with Matt's assessment. Whereas well sorted $25,000 - 28,000 3.2s would sell in a matter of hours, people expecting 40+% more in a matter of months with listing prices at, near, or above $40,000 are making the same buyers to pause.

[924CarreraGTP]

I'm no expert, but I can say that I doubt it. The 356 market is way out of control in my opinion. The 911 is a better, and much more powerful car than the 356's. That will continuously magnify as time goes on. There are many sub par 911T's going for upwards of $60K right now. A 40K car like mine is suddenly looking like a deal to collectors. All the 356 has going for it is the Speedster, and Carrera variants. The 911 is technically more definitive of a Porsche than the 356. So I could see prices exceeding most 356's before its all over. There are many people labelling the early 911 market as a bubble, but they are just naysayers. A well maintained early 911 has been valuable for a long time now. The main question I have is why the 928 market is so low when the 928 is a better engineered car than a 911 of almost any year. The design of the 928 is also elegant and stands head to head with Lamborghin's Muira in styling. Yet, you can buy them for almost nothing and a 928 is probably 100 times more reliable than any Italian car. It makes no sense.

[silverc4s]

Prices will be confirmed or otherwise come August in Monterey. I think the best cars are still escalating, but the mid pack examples are lagging, as the high end buyers really have no interest in them.
Two different markets.
added: so I agree with Matt also, said in a different way.

[911SauCy]

Originally Posted by Matt Monson

I don't think we are seeing it burst. Many of the cars being brought to market are in lesser condition than what was on offer 6 months ago. Couple that with overly optimistic sellers who are trying to capitalize on the run up and you have average cars sitting unsold because people are asking nice car prices for them.

I think that the sellers have just stepped in front of the price increases. Their expectations are unreasonable and that's all that needs an adjustment.

I believe Matt hit the nail on the head.

[NYNick]

I've always been a fan of the 928, but you can't compare their value to air cooled. Apples to orangutans. They were ahead of their time, but hard to service and work on. Good looking, Yes! Desirable? No.
If I had a warehouse full of cars, maybe.

And FWIW, Matt did hit the nail on the head.
Nick

[Matt Monson]

Go looking for a show condition 928 GTS. Expect to pay six figures for it. Ratty old early production 928s are a dime a dozen. But really nice S and later variants are almost back to what they sold for new.

Guys are paying Greg Brown $20k+ to rebuild 928 engines. There wouldn't be a market for that engine if the cars weren't coming back up.

/OT

[Josh D]

According to all of the British 911 magazines, The price for nice driver quality SC and 3.2 Carrera's are still climbing in Europe. With fewer and fewer rust free examples to choose from over there, this will certainly have an affect on the US market to some degree. European importers have been buying up clean US cars for awhile now and getting some pretty good prices over there for them. I'm sure it will take a few more years before supply in the US becomes affected enough that the US market prices will see any significant jump, but I believe it will happen. Because they are built so well, there's still plenty of these cars to go around though.

[Matt Monson]

Josh,
The SC and 3.2 took a big run up over the winter here in the States. Even the Midyears jumped. All IB 911s have gone up $5-10k (sometimes more for really nice examples) in the last year.

[Josh D]

Originally Posted by Matt Monson

Josh,
The SC and 3.2 took a big run up over the winter here in the States. Even the Midyears jumped. All IB 911s have gone up $5-10k (sometimes more for really nice examples) in the last year.

Yes, I'm aware of the price jump. I started looking 4 years ago or so and saw the trend then. I used that as leverage with my wife to get a car sooner rather than later. I'm glad I did. I've put over 30K miles on my car in 3 years and it's worth more than I paid for it! Not that I ever plan to sell. I'll drive the the crap out of it (and maintain it well) until it either needs an engine rebuild or the replacement value makes it not worth the risk to drive it daily. Then it will become a hobby car. I'm not looking forward to that day. I enjoy driving it too much!

[RollingArtworks]

I think we are just seeing poorer quality cars for outrageous prices. The quality stuff or properly priced cars are selling rather quickly.

[Nick Triesch]

Most 928 cars are rolling obsolescence. There are very few exceptions Cost way more to rebuild than the car is worth. Same with the 944. Really cool cars...just not worth buying. Years ago I saw a really nice 928 go by and my Wife said that it looked like a squished AMC Pacer. She was kind of right.

[tazzieman]

The 928 is a very fine car but being water cooled like the 944 , requires the water pump , timing belt and ancillary attention. Air cooled maintenance is so much easier. Other than that , they are all very different driving /ownership experiences.

911s are no doubt seen as investment strategies , certainly talked up by the classic car mags and the like. The 50th anniversary thing has also elevated awareness/price.

The mags are now starting to recognise how well built the 928s were. Of course , luxury supercar on a budget doesn't work for many. Especially if you pay for labour. The 928 bad raps are pretty much a result of woes caused by poor or deferred maintenance. Bit like a 911.

[wildthing]

I hope it levels off or dips a bit. I'm still waiting for my chance for a 993...

[HugoBear]

I don't think it is. If things don't sell, it is because pricing is out of control. Tons of folks asking $35k plus for 85-89 carrera's and that is aggressive. A well priced car is gone within hours. I experienced that with 2 SF Craigslist cars just last week.

[Macroni]

Originally Posted by enzoducoing

It has happened before on the 356 market.
Cheers.

What burst in the 356 market? They are at all time highs.

[hbueno]

Originally Posted by Nick Triesch

Most 928 cars are rolling obsolescence. There are very few exceptions Cost way more to rebuild than the car is worth. Same with the 944. Really cool cars...just not worth buying. Years ago I saw a really nice 928 go by and my Wife said that it looked like a squished AMC Pacer. She was kind of right.

Obsolete: no longer used or produced, out of date
Obsolescence: the process of becoming obsolete or the condition of being nearly obsolete

A 928 is as obsolescent as any air-cooled 911. Not quite sure what you're trying to say. We should all hope that older Porsches stay as affordable as 944's and 928's.

Wow, in writing this I just realized I'm "different." I own two Porsche models that are bad mouthed by a certain segment of the community.

Hugo

[Matt Monson]

Hugo,
So do I, a 912 and a couple of 914s. Also used to own a 924s. I would love to grab a nice early 90s 928 in good condition before they too become stupid expensive.

I own what I like. It's the cardinal rule. Buy cars you like. Market value be damned. Just be sure you can afford to maintain them.

[christiandk]

I don't think we are seeing it burst. Many of the cars being brought to market are in lesser condition than what was on offer 6 months ago. Couple that with overly optimistic sellers who are trying to capitalize on the run up and you have average cars sitting unsold because people are asking nice car prices for them. <br>
<br>
I think that the sellers have just stepped in front of the price increases. Their expectations are unreasonable and that's all that needs an adjustment.

True!