Bubble finally deflating?

[Matt Monson]

Originally Posted by manbridge 74

Lighten up Francis! You've got 45 years at least...

My mentor quit driving at 95. Of course he was rockin a supercharged Buick Park Avenue.

I've got no interest in living to 90. Anything past 80 will be just fine with me.

[Flashoir]

I just don't really understand some of the varying prices in the market at the moment - you've got $1m '73 RSs and $100k 911Ss, $500k '74 Euro Carreras and $50k '74 CIS Carreras. That the former command premiums isn't a surprise... But an order of magnitude?! Especially when the conversion of one into the other is a pretty straightforward task. Personally, I'm not sure the top of the market can keep climbing further into the stratosphere like it has, but solid 40-year old sports cars are generally going to appreciate if looked after.

[Nick Triesch]

Not if there are 100,000 of them. Some of you folks are in a dream world. At least not the 3.2 cars. So some of the very best will be worth the least.

[bobbyp]

Originally Posted by Matt Monson

I've got no interest in living to 90. Anything past 80 will be just fine with me.

You might want to rethink that as you get older.
Wishing you a long and healthy life.

[Flashoir]

Originally Posted by Nick Triesch

Not if there are 100,000 of them. Some of you folks are in a dream world. At least not the 3.2 cars. So some of the very best will be worth the least.

That's the thing, even if you started out with 100,000 of them, how many are still on the road? How many get wrecked and rusted into oblivion every year? Every one. That goes makes every one that survives a bit more valuable. Hell, in the UK you can pay over £20k for Triumph Stag these days and there is no more a rubbish pile of rubbish than that - it's just old and there are always fanboys willing to pay...

[Nick Triesch]

There are still many thousands of nice 911 cars in the world. Probably most here in California. The main reason that they are still around in large numbers is because they were made so well. They did not rot and leak like the British cars or the fiats. Also, they always cost a ton so people took better car of them. I really like my car but if someone wanted to trade for a Cayman, I just might do it.

[wally509]

Originally Posted by Nick Triesch

There are still many thousands of nice 911 cars in the world. Probably most here in California. The main reason that they are still around in large numbers is because they were made so well. They did not rot and leak like the British cars or the fiats. Also, they always cost a ton so people took better car of them...

Another thing to consider about attrition rates is what were the cars originally being purchased for. A lot of those British cars were year round daily drivers and in a lot of cases a guy's or families only car. 911's and particularly the impact bumper ones were second and third cars so they never got subjected to a lot of the crapola that takes a car out. Because they cost a ton, so people who have a ton can typically own a "regular" car to drive in the sheit. They also never got really low in value, saying sub $2500, like the British stuff did. I think that kept a lot them from being seen as disposable/not worth fixing and scrapped.

[Matt Monson]

Originally Posted by wally509

Another thing to consider about attrition rates is what were the cars originally being purchased for. A lot of those British cars were year round daily drivers and in a lot of cases a guy's or families only car. 911's and particularly the impact bumper ones were second and third cars so they never got subjected to a lot of the crapola that takes a car out. Because they cost a ton, so people who have a ton can typically own a "regular" car to drive in the sheit. They also never got really low in value, saying sub $2500, like the British stuff did. I think that kept a lot them from being seen as disposable/not worth fixing and scrapped.

On what do you base these assumptions. I grew up in 1970s and 80s CA. 911s were everywhere. They most definitely were daily drivers for many people.

And from about 1995-2010 or so middies were seen as disposable. Many parked them when the engine popped. Or someone took a 3.0l from a wreck and put it in on the cheap.

[Matt Monson]

I bought my first 911, a '70T in 2005 for $1000. They most surely got cheap.

[93097004xx]

I think there are a few on here trying to imply that impact bumper cars are common place. Fact is the 2.7 cars were made in far less numbers than long hoods. The 3.0 and 3.2 cars were made in roughly the same numbers as longhoods, 356s. Muscle cars, Japanese sport cars were made in the millions. So 80,000 is a small number. As for attrition in Europe it's HUGE. Stateside is higher than you would think. I'm going to say that most likely fewer than half of all impact bumper cars built from 1974 to 1979 remain. The 930 has the highest attrition rate of any impact bumper car. Especially the 1970s cars. These cars got cheap had huge running cost compared to NA 911s as a result many were gutted into track cars or just parked somewhere and left to rot away because the repairs greatly exceeded the cars value. This can be said for 1974 to 1977 2.7 cars as well.

[Nick Triesch]

Wow! Wally! A British car as a family car????? I took care of my MG's but they spent most of their time leaking, popping out of third and electrical stuff not working and keeping a rawhide mallet in the car to tap the electric fuel pump when it got stuck with dirt (MGA) and just not working. Very pretty terrible cars. But not as bad a a rotting Fiat. Sometimes I would get together with other MGB guys and we all replaced all the very same stuff!!!! All the time. 911 cars were very much like a VW bug in that they were so reliable for many years. Same with the 356.

[Racerbvd]

Originally Posted by Nick Triesch

I was always told that for a car to be super collectable it had to be a desirable and good car in the first place . And there has to be few of them around. There are thousands of Sc and 3.2 cars the world over. I think most of them live in New Porsche Beach!! Just too many of them. I'm just being realistic.

Ok, explain the crazy prices of VW Micro Buses.

[Nick Triesch]

Even in SO CAL there are not many micro buses. Please!

[SCadaddle]

Being the current owner of an 82 SC and a 66 VW microbus, I'll suggest the current market trend on the microbus is just plain fantasy. Sure there are plenty of them listed on The Samba for crazy money, but how many of those "patina monsters" are actually trading hands for the ridiculous asking prices? I realize attrition took many of them out, seen more than my share of VW bus chicken coops and rotted storage buildings.

[wally509]

Originally Posted by Matt Monson

On what do you base these assumptions. I grew up in 1970s and 80s CA. 911s were everywhere. They most definitely were daily drivers for many people...

Okay, I was basing this assumption on being form the Midwest where cars rust. I never saw them around in the winter from what I remember. I grew up in a fairly wealthy Chicago suburb and friends fathers had them and they never left the garage in the winter. I'm sure in CA they were regularly used as daily drivers just like people use motorcycles for year round transportation.

Originally Posted by Nick Triesch

Wow! Wally! A British car as a family car????? I took care of my MG's but they spent most of their time leaking, popping out of third and electrical stuff not working and keeping a rawhide mallet in the car to tap the electric fuel pump when it got stuck with dirt (MGA) and just not working. Very pretty terrible cars. But not as bad a a rotting Fiat. Sometimes I would get together with other MGB guys and we all replaced all the very same stuff!!!! All the time. 911 cars were very much like a VW bug in that they were so reliable for many years. Same with the 356.

A lot of this is based on conversations with aging sportscar (mostly Healey) enthusiasts talking about how there seem to be so many more 6 cylinder Healeys around. One of these guys is in his 80's and owned Le Mans 100's when they were new. One worked as a mechanic at ConImEx in Chicago in the late 50's early 60's, another not quite as old was heavily involved in the sportscar scene in this area again in the mid 1960's (he attended Meadowdale on a regular basis), etc.

These guys say there was a general shift somewhere in the early to mid 1960's from families owning only one car to owning two cars. These were sportscar guys and generally hung out with other sportscar guys and this is what they saw or what they remember at least. By the time the 3000 Healeys came out, a significantly higher margin of them were second cars. Hence they could be spared from some of the crap and therefore the attrition rate was not as high. Given they were still only second cars for a couple or family, they would still get driven in some crap, but not to the same extent.

I could go on but sort of need to get to work. Thanks for calling me out as this was just speculation. It just doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me that some guy that could afford a 911 wouldn't be able to afford another car to drive in the salt. Particularly in an era post where the nation as a whole trended to having 2 cars. Porsches have always been expensive cars, I mean 911's were 2-3x what an MGB was again reinforcing my thoughts. Maybe they were being purchased by people who were just getting by and had to be pressed into winter daily driver service.

[RD911T]

Originally Posted by Matt Monson

I've got no interest in living to 90. Anything past 80 will be just fine with me.

My dad says the same thing. He's approaching 87 in a few months. He still drives and so does my mom.

[Matt Monson]

Originally Posted by RD911T

My dad says the same thing. He's approaching 87 in a few months. He still drives and so does my mom.

I've got a hot young thing to drive me around when I get old. When I'm 80 she will still be 69.

[RD911T]

Originally Posted by Matt Monson

I've got a hot young thing to drive me around when I get old. When I'm 80 she will still be 69.

When you're 80, she'll still be into 69? Good for you!

[manbridge 74]

When I'm 80 my sweet wife will be 68..

[OsoMoore]

The first owner of my 79 SC was a young female doctor in California. She put 200K miles on it in the first 20 years, and then sold it for about half of what she bought it for. (30K -> 13K).

Between 1999 and today, it has only seen another 56K miles (although I am making up for lost time).

So while it is definitely been living a 2nd car kind of life since '99, it had the wheels driven off it for 20 years.