Bubble finally deflating?

[pavulon]

Relisted: Porsche 911 Carrera 911 G50 | eBay

and more detailed images:

https://drive.google.com/folderview?id=0Bxhzd8c6Ol3dfnE4R2R3UXpnMmd1NDI4Mnp Hcl96MGRwVjRNVG05amF0Y19ORFVIZ2x6RTQ&usp=drive_web

Originally Posted by pavulon

pretty nice G50 coupe w/ 85K miles sold on eBay for $36.4K
Porsche 911 Carrera 911 G50 | eBay _trksid=p2055119.m1438.l2649&ssPageName=STRK%3AMEB IDX%3AIT

[tominizer]

One thing I haven't seen discussed (unless I missed it) is the up and coming generation of kids/young adults. This next generation seems to have ZERO interest in these things (from my personal experience). It's not important to them. When they grew up, the family car was likely a piece of S*** and there's very little connection automotive-ly. Their interests are very much elsewhere. I don’t know how many times I’ve asked the younger generation about what they just saw driving down the road beside us and they have no clue. “Was that a Camero??” they say. “No……. *sigh*….. it was a Ford Mustang”, dad groans. No connection or importance to them.

Generally speaking, all the car shows I attend are mainly us older guys and our wives (if we are that lucky to have a wife that’s interested!!). I'm not seeing the younger generation taking interest and participating as they are glued to tablets and iPads. Yes, there's the odd case where this doesn't 100% hold true but I think the future holds a very different market place for these precious gems. My kids have no interest in “wrenching” or learning anything about what we do with our older cars. Nor do their friends.

My brother inlaw had an older VW bug as an example. Meticulously restored and maintained. His intention was that it was to be handed down to his son, the next generation. It was an impressive gift. At the time, his son was in his late teens and never stepped into the garage with his dad (first sign). And there was no interest as he was more enamored by big turbo-ed Nissan Skylines, then Jeeps with 30” tires and finally joining the army to drive military vehicles. So the bug was eventually sold off to “some guy” where it apparently sat and rotted. I believe this story holds true to some extent now in many families and will be very much the case in the future.

My point?? Long story short, bubble or whatever, I believe the Porsche market is going to tank. The next generation is not "connected" for the same reasons we are, if at all. The prices on these older cars will not hold as a dying generation of "old guys" eventually unload their pride and joys on a market of un-interested people..

[NYNick]

Originally Posted by tominizer

One thing I haven't seen discussed (unless I missed it) is the up and coming generation of kids/young adults. This next generation seems to have ZERO interest in these things (from my personal experience). It's not important to them. When they grew up, the family car was likely a piece of S*** and there's very little connection automotive-ly. Their interests are very much elsewhere. I don’t know how many times I’ve asked the younger generation about what they just saw driving down the road beside us and they have no clue. “Was that a Camero??” they say. “No……. *sigh*….. it was a Ford Mustang”, dad groans. No connection or importance to them.

Generally speaking, all the car shows I attend are mainly us older guys and our wives (if we are that lucky to have a wife that’s interested!!). I'm not seeing the younger generation taking interest and participating as they are glued to tablets and iPads. Yes, there's the odd case where this doesn't 100% hold true but I think the future holds a very different market place for these precious gems. My kids have no interest in “wrenching” or learning anything about what we do with our older cars. Nor do their friends.

My brother inlaw had an older VW bug as an example. Meticulously restored and maintained. His intention was that it was to be handed down to his son, the next generation. It was an impressive gift. At the time, his son was in his late teens and never stepped into the garage with his dad (first sign). And there was no interest as he was more enamored by big turbo-ed Nissan Skylines, then Jeeps with 30” tires and finally joining the army to drive military vehicles. So the bug was eventually sold off to “some guy” where it apparently sat and rotted. I believe this story holds true to some extent now in many families and will be very much the case in the future.

My point?? Long story short, bubble or whatever, I believe the Porsche market is going to tank. The next generation is not "connected" for the same reasons we are, if at all. The prices on these older cars will not hold as a dying generation of "old guys" eventually unload their pride and joys on a market of un-interested people..

Well, my 28 year old has TWO Porsches; a 944S and an 88 911. I'm pretty sure that he would be considered the younger generation.

The sky is not falling. This is an old argument, heard about older cars forever. I think we've got quite some time to go before people lose interest in air cooled Porsches.,,,like maybe never. Besides, with global warming, emissions and gasoline becoming larger and larger topics, gas powered cars will become rarer and rarer; and perhaps even more desirable...who knows?

No, you've got a lifetime of enjoying these babies still to come.

[zakira]

Yeah, when I mention to the younger generation I have a Porsche and a Nissan GT-R, they only care about the GT-R.

[Rick Brooklyn]

Originally Posted by NYNick

No, you've got a lifetime of enjoying these babies still to come.

Your son is the exception. By and large, "millennials" think cars are for transportation and are appliances like washing machines. I firmly believe that generation X will be the last one with car lovers represented in good numbers.

Besides, there is a realistic scenario where self driving cars, electric or otherwise, lead to prohibitive insurance costs and increasingly less roadways left available for drivers, with the endgame of driver cars being regulated away and only being allowed on private property, much like horses today. Would become a hobby for the rich and the extravagant. If electric cars do become prevalent, that'll make it even worse, faster. That's not an outlandish tin foil hat fantasy, I'd say it's the relatively more likely scenario really.

Not to say that this would impact 911 prices any time soon, but I think the sky will very much fall at some point in the future.

[2ndTARGA]

The demographic angle has been discussed. I think this link has been posted before:

Baby Boomers Created the Classic-Car Market—and Could Crash It – Feature – Car and Driver

I tend to think it's a legitimate concern, but I'm a "typical" boomer who got hooked on European cars during college in the '60's and have seen what the disposable income of my generation in our '50's and '60's has done to prices of all things "fun and special." The same argument is being applied (correctly, IMO) to large houses in suburbs. The appetite among millennials and younger is all about urban living and renting - and using UBER, Car2Go etc.

But as the prior poster pointed out, for most of us it's all about what we want and get out of our car passion/hobby while we still can drive. The major unknown, to me, is still whether the hard asset hockey stick over the past few years has brought in a bunch of non-hobby investors and whether this is a bubble that could end pretty quickly.

Case in point, of the 71 993's currently on eBay, more than a third (28) are turbos ranging from $150K to $525K. I don't think there are that many enthusiasts shopping for them just now - but a lot of dealers/owners trying to get out while the getting's good?

[Matt Monson]

What's going to happen to prices in ten or twenty years has nothin to do with this idea of a bubble.

That said, my 23 & 25 year old younger brothers love my air cooled cars. And when I go to Cars n Coffee here there are plenty of 20 something's wandering around looking at them and ogling. Furthermore, I've seen plenty of comments about how google and FB employed hipsters are part of the current run up in air cooled prices. They want to buy a 911 made in the year they were born. There's even one guy over on RL obsessed with having his 3.2 Carrera made the month he was born. Maybe that's part of the run up in 964 prices? It's all these 26 & 27 year old kids.

People go on and on about how expensive these cars are. I've seen a lot of mid to late 20s guys join the forums recently who are getting out of a $30k STi or EVO and spending that money on an SC or Carrera. People are actually financing these old cars. That's commitment in my mind. If you are making a 30 year old car your daily driver and taking a loan to do it? Yeah, you are into them.

[NYNick]

Originally Posted by Rick Brooklyn

Your son is the exception. By and large, "millennials" think cars are for transportation and are appliances like washing machines. I firmly believe that generation X will be the last one with car lovers represented in good numbers.

Besides, there is a realistic scenario where self driving cars, electric or otherwise, lead to prohibitive insurance costs and increasingly less roadways left available for drivers, with the endgame of driver cars being regulated away and only being allowed on private property, much like horses today. Would become a hobby for the rich and the extravagant. If electric cars do become prevalent, that'll make it even worse, faster. That's not an outlandish tin foil hat fantasy, I'd say it's the relatively more likely scenario really.

Not to say that this would impact 911 prices any time soon, but I think the sky will very much fall at some point in the future.

Decent point. My other two 20 somethings don't even own cars, and live in cities.

[vracer]

Originally Posted by NYNick

Decent point. My other two 20 somethings don't even own cars, and live in cities.

Nick,
New construction in SF is allowed to have a maximum of 1.5 parking places per 2 units.

[KNS]

Originally Posted by Rick Brooklyn

Besides, there is a realistic scenario where self driving cars, electric or otherwise, lead to prohibitive insurance costs and increasingly less roadways left available for drivers, with the endgame of driver cars being regulated away and only being allowed on private property, much like horses today. Would become a hobby for the rich and the extravagant. If electric cars do become prevalent, that'll make it even worse, faster. That's not an outlandish tin foil hat fantasy, I'd say it's the relatively more likely scenario really.

I actually read a curious article recently that said sort of the opposite. That driverless cars would be so safe (time will tell...), insurance companies are seriously concerned that their premiums collected will plummet and that they'll have to find new sources of revenue (I won't cry if that happens unless they skyrocket the premiums for the remaining cars with actual drivers).

[spyerx]

I'm seeing a trend in la. I'm seeing lots of "younger" (think mid 20s to 30s) driving cool older cars. There is an appreciation for the art/design/classic nature of them. My wife first pointed this out. I see a cool older car and very often it's someone in that age range. Sure the expensive classics may not be in reach... I'm honestly not much outside that age range but I feel hope for the younger generation. I like my cars mechanical, my music on vinyl, my coffee brewed by hand (espresso please), and my charcuterie house made. :-)

[Matt Monson]

Originally Posted by spyerx

I'm seeing a trend in la. I'm seeing lots of "younger" (think mid 20s to 30s) driving cool older cars. There is an appreciation for the art/design/classic nature of them. My wife first pointed this out. I see a cool older car and very often it's someone in that age range. Sure the expensive classics may not be in reach... I'm honestly not much outside that age range but I feel hope for the younger generation. I like my cars mechanical, my music on vinyl, my coffee brewed by hand (espresso please), and my charcuterie house made. :-)

F-in hipster! I keed. You just are learning to appreciate what I've appreciated for the last 3 decades. I used to get my Peets coffee at the original location on Vine St in Berkeley years before Starbucks had a slice of their pie.

[spyerx]

Originally Posted by Matt Monson

F-in hipster! I keed. You just are learning to appreciate what I've appreciated for the last 3 decades. I used to get my Peets coffee at the original location on Vine St in Berkeley years before Starbucks had a slice of their pie.

lol. Not really. I've never stopped listening to vinyl since I was a kid, but the coffee thing was making espresso at home waaaay before "3rd string" was a thing. Besides I'm too old to be a hipster. But those driving the cool cars, gives us hope !

[darmahman]

My son has two older BMW collectable cars and is looking for a 911 coupe to backdate.
Remember there are more of them(hipsters) than there are of us old fogeys and there are less 911's as time marches on.
Supply and demand.

Originally Posted by tominizer

One thing I haven't seen discussed (unless I missed it) is the up and coming generation of kids/young adults. This next generation seems to have ZERO interest in these things (from my personal experience). It's not important to them. When they grew up, the family car was likely a piece of S*** and there's very little connection automotive-ly. Their interests are very much elsewhere. I don’t know how many times I’ve asked the younger generation about what they just saw driving down the road beside us and they have no clue. “Was that a Camero??” they say. “No……. *sigh*….. it was a Ford Mustang”, dad groans. No connection or importance to them.

Generally speaking, all the car shows I attend are mainly us older guys and our wives (if we are that lucky to have a wife that’s interested!!). I'm not seeing the younger generation taking interest and participating as they are glued to tablets and iPads. Yes, there's the odd case where this doesn't 100% hold true but I think the future holds a very different market place for these precious gems. My kids have no interest in “wrenching” or learning anything about what we do with our older cars. Nor do their friends.

My brother inlaw had an older VW bug as an example. Meticulously restored and maintained. His intention was that it was to be handed down to his son, the next generation. It was an impressive gift. At the time, his son was in his late teens and never stepped into the garage with his dad (first sign). And there was no interest as he was more enamored by big turbo-ed Nissan Skylines, then Jeeps with 30” tires and finally joining the army to drive military vehicles. So the bug was eventually sold off to “some guy” where it apparently sat and rotted. I believe this story holds true to some extent now in many families and will be very much the case in the future.

My point?? Long story short, bubble or whatever, I believe the Porsche market is going to tank. The next generation is not "connected" for the same reasons we are, if at all. The prices on these older cars will not hold as a dying generation of "old guys" eventually unload their pride and joys on a market of un-interested people..

[mooty]

Originally Posted by Matt Monson

F-in hipster! I keed. You just are learning to appreciate what I've appreciated for the last 3 decades. I used to get my Peets coffee at the original location on Vine St in Berkeley years before Starbucks had a slice of their pie.

really, u dont say..... i attended cal for 8 years. yes, i keep flunking out....
i like on francisco and MLK and shop at the safeway near that peets!

oh and like SpyerX, play LP and run vacuum tube stuff....

but kind of sad that the next gen kids are texting more than i do... that is scary....

[ShopCat]

Originally Posted by tominizer

I think the future holds a very different market place for these precious gems.

This is what Im banking on, most of my peers see cars as point A to B and thats it. To them and all my co-workers Im the freak because Im a 24 year old that drives a '68 Camaro to work every day with no power steering/power brakes or AC... "Why dont you just sell it and buy a new car since its worth 25k?" is all I ever hear. No offense to all the older gentlemen but I cant wait for the market to come back down so that I can start really collecting.

[christiandk]

Originally Posted by Matt Monson

Furthermore, I've seen plenty of comments about how google and FB employed hipsters are part of the current run up in air cooled prices. They want to buy a 911 made in the year they were born. There's even one guy over on RL obsessed with having his 3.2 Carrera made the month he was born. Maybe that's part of the run up in 964 prices? It's all these 26 & 27 year old kids.

I have heard that too. My 912E is actually assembled around the time I was made by my mom and dad.

[Matt Monson]

Originally Posted by mooty

really, u dont say..... i attended cal for 8 years. yes, i keep flunking out....
i like on francisco and MLK and shop at the safeway near that peets!

oh and like SpyerX, play LP and run vacuum tube stuff....

but kind of sad that the next gen kids are texting more than i do... that is scary....

Yep. I lived there from 1989 to 2001 when I moved to Colorado. I only spent 5 years at Cal getting my 3 degrees. I lived on Spruce and Rose. Later on I lived off Solano through the tunnel. Mmmm, Zachary's.

[Skwerl]

I've seen several surveys and studies that indicate that millenials in general really don't care about cars at all, and those who do value things like tech features, safety and gas mileage.

Of course, that's just in general, and there are still plenty of genuine car enthusiasts in the 16-32 age bracket. I do think that outside of hipsters going for retro authenticity, their tastes will veer more towards GTRs and the like than vintage 911s, but that's just my guess as someone who belongs to that age range.

[spyerx]

Originally Posted by Matt Monson

Yep. I lived there from 1989 to 2001 when I moved to Colorado. I only spent 5 years at Cal getting my 3 degrees. I lived on Spruce and Rose. Later on I lived off Solano through the tunnel. Mmmm, Zachary's.

F'kin hipster! hahah... and live in the 'springs now? lol!!!! You and Mooty. And he's not kidding on txting. But my vinyl is amplified through hybrid amps (tubes/SS) so maybe I'm not all that hipster authentic.

But...The benefit of the 911 relative to most other cars is it is timeless, it is classic, 50 years of history, so it appeals, i think, to a much broader audience than most older cars.

Then again, the entire population has never been 'car people' and it's always been a subset. The question is if that population or subset is shrinking. I live in SoCal, probably the car culture center of the US....and I'd say that car events, shows, meetings, etc seem BIGGER than they used to be - sure not all porsche focused.... I think there is hope