Sept 2015 Excellence Turbo Pricing - Wow

[Matt Monson]

Originally Posted by cover

Why shouldn't it venture into speedster territory?
A 3.0 930 is a rarer car than a 356 speedster and IMO much more significant and special among Porsches.

Agreed, and I think we are starting to see the generational impact. I identify more with Steve McQueen than James Dean. Same with the cars.

[Macroni]

Originally Posted by cover

Why shouldn't it venture into speedster territory?
A 3.0 930 is a rarer car than a 356 speedster and IMO much more significant and special among Porsches.

Significant....... special.......hardly...... rare...... how do you define rare by model year production numbers?

Speedster comment was a personal preference...... I would much rather have a Speedster if I were to spend $215,000......

[cover]

Originally Posted by Macroni

Significant....... special.......hardly...... rare...... how do you define rare by model year production numbers?

I am no expert on Speedsters but weren't they in production from 55 - 59 MY with production total around 4000 pcs.?

As far as I know the Speedster is little more than a body style in it self.
(though minimalisticly equipped)

The 930 is an automotive milestone and quite possibly the most iconic car ever produced by Porsche (and it started out as a homologation special)
It was posted above the beds of an entire generation of boys and it took the Porsche brand into the same league as Ferrari and Lamborghini.

The 3.0 turbo is different from the later 3.3 to an extend that it must be viewed as model in its own right.

Production total 75 - 77 MY is approx. 2800 pcs. incl. a number of 934 race cars.

[Matt Monson]

A truly rare car is a 964 C4 lightweight, 911 SC-RS or 911 ST. I totally get Luke's point. There's no argument to have here. For the same money he would prefer the Speedster, you would prefer the Turbo Carrera. Nuff said.

[Macroni]

roughly 23,000 turbos from 75 to 89........as rare as.......... guards red......

[Matt Monson]

Introducing a compromise... The Turbo Speedster.
http://forums.pelicanparts.com/porsche-cars-sale/875987-78-turbo-speedster-project.html

[cover]

Originally Posted by pmax

For one, the 3.0 turbo looks no different from the later 3.3. So it's not special in this respect.
The Speedster wins the exterior design round easily.

The 3.0 does look different from the 3.3.
One of its most defining visual features, the whale tail, is very different from the tea tray on the 3.3.
But otherwise the differences are technical, I agree.
So which add more value; Unique visual- or technical features ?.........I don't know.
Or is the right combination better?

Originally Posted by Macroni

roughly 23,000 turbos from 75 to 89........as rare as.......... guards red......

Again, the 75 - 77 930 is different from the rest of the production.

[93097004xx]

Originally Posted by Macroni

roughly 23,000 turbos from 75 to 89........as rare as.......... guards red......

This argument does not hold water. It keeps coming back because of excellence ect.

So 21,580 930s produced worldwide from 1975 to 1989 30% attrition rate 15,106 remain

76,313 356s produced worldwide 1948 to 1964 50% attrition rate 38,156 remain

135,065 longhood 911s produced worldwide 1965 to 1973 50% attrition rate 67,532 remain

You see not many 930s were made... And fewer survive.

[Macroni]

Originally Posted by 93097004xx

You see not many 930s were made... And fewer survive.

I understand your and cover's premise........ there are a limited number of seats and if you want one here is the current marketplace regardless of personal opinion of what is rare and what is plentiful......

[Matt Monson]

Originally Posted by 93097004xx

This argument does not hold water. It keeps coming back because of excellence ect.

So 21,580 930s produced worldwide from 1975 to 1989 30% attrition rate 15,106 remain

76,313 356s produced worldwide 1948 to 1964 50% attrition rate 38,156 remain

135,065 longhood 911s produced worldwide 1965 to 1973 50% attrition rate 67,532 remain

You see not many 930s were made... And fewer survive.

Your argument does not hold water. You can't take all 356s worldwide when we are talking about Speedsters. You would need to cover ALL 911s, including 930s made 1975-1989 if you want to play it that way.

There were just over 3500 356 Speedsters ever made. 50% attrition rate puts us at 1750. If you do your math on Turbo Carreras only, it puts about 2000 left. No doubt the Speedster is a more rare automobile today.

[Jabberwocky]

Originally Posted by 93097004xx

This argument does not hold water. It keeps coming back because of excellence ect.

So 21,580 930s produced worldwide from 1975 to 1989 30% attrition rate 15,106 remain

76,313 356s produced worldwide 1948 to 1964 50% attrition rate 38,156 remain

135,065 longhood 911s produced worldwide 1965 to 1973 50% attrition rate 67,532 remain

You see not many 930s were made... And fewer survive.

Your long hood number is a bit frothy. Total swb (1965-1968) was 16,057. Total lwb production (1969-1973) was not 119,008; more like 35,000. Besides, in order to do an apples to apples comparison using the 930/speedster rationale, you should only count long hood "S"s, of whic approx 14,000 were made (1967-1973).

[Macroni]

Originally Posted by Macroni

I understand premise....... regardless of personal opinion of what is rare and what is plentiful......

Originally Posted by Matt Monson

Your argument does not hold water.

Originally Posted by Jabberwocky

Your long hood number is a bit frothy.

It does not matter really, marketplaces are momentary.... I also believe more times than not when a marketplace shifts it rarely returns to previous lows........

[cajun]

Originally Posted by cover

Which previous incident compares to the current situation?
This is not quick finances all chasing the same investment oppertunity.

With a great deal of respect, I disagree. I have owned my 930 for 10 years and I cannot believe the market now. I do think these cars will come back down in value, however I also believe the days of finding a clean 30k 930 are gone forever.

Honestly, you don't have to look far into the history of cars to see bubbles... Ferraris in the late 80s and early 90s after Enzo's death... Musclecars in the early 2000s (thanks BJ)... Aircooled mania now. Hell, anyone who has taken business classes in college knows that the history of free markets are littered with bubbles.

I personally know people who are buying these cars as investments... pure speculation. One guy in particular is looking for his 4th 993 and can't stop telling me every time he sees me how much these cars are going up in value and its an "excellent" investment! I keep telling him that if he wants to make money on them, he needs to find the next fool in line. - I predict that he will learn a VERY difficult lesson in the next 24 months or so...

I will say that this recent run up in the aircooled marked has me kicking myself in the ass for not pulling the trigger on a low mileage 993tt 4 years ago at 70k. But hey, I'm sure every guy on here has a similar story...

[Racerbvd]

A buddy, who owns BOTH, a 356 Speedster AND a 77 930 was talking to a well known and well respected 356 expert, who told him that it wouldn't be too long before his 930 was more valuable than his Speedster, and that came from a top 356 restorer, so I think that he might have a good idea about the actual values of these cars. Plus, you can't use;

So 21,580 930s produced worldwide from 1975 to 1989 30% attrition rate 15,106 remain

As the 75-77 3.0s were completely different cars from the 78-89, smaller brakes, snappy boost, fewer built, many crashed because many couldn't handle the tail happy on boost, plus, since they were so undervalued, compared to the 78 up 3.3 with bigger brakes, many where turned into race cars (I had 2 friends buy concours 77 930s and turned them into 934s) so that also brings the number of survivors down.

[shlobeck]

It's seems a majority of the conversation (as usual) on vintage Porsches and 930s are the values. There's very little talk about what wonderful cars the early turbos are to drive. I bought my cars because I love 930s and not because I'm some financial genius. When you kick yourself for not buying a car, don't, you really didn't want it in the first place. And surely didn't "need" it either. This might sound cliche but I love 930s for far more than there monetary rise. I know several multiple 930 owners that have the same sentiments. I understand this a marketplace forum but I never want to think of my cars as some commodity or stock. They're my hobby and passion, like most of us on here. All air-cooled cars are going up, that's a fact, what you do with them is your decision. I'm driving mine.

I wouldn't say the 3 liter cars and the early 3.3s are completely different but you'll surely never mistake one for the other when driving them back-to-back. They're all wonderful cars, regardless of year.

[Black968]

Remember, these cars are popular 'worldwide'. Muscle cars were only sought after in North America. The market is being influenced by currency levels also. If I sell my car in the US at the moment (lets say) $80,000 x 1.35 cdn = $108,000 cdn. You may see cars coming back to the US based on currency and cash levels. It is a very complex market.

[Macroni]

Originally Posted by shlobeck

hobby and passion

I think this is why there is no longer a air-cooled in my garage..... I like driving them not looking at them as a portfolio item.......

Here is the ultimate should have.... turned down the opportunity 10 years ago to purchase 50% of a company for $3 million. It sold last year for $800 million......

oh well... time to push back the top of my Boxster and enjoy a beautiful July afternoon drive to the beach......

[93097004xx]

Originally Posted by Jabberwocky

Your long hood number is a bit frothy. Total swb (1965-1968) was 16,057. Total lwb production (1969-1973) was not 119,008; more like 35,000. Besides, in order to do an apples to apples comparison using the 930/speedster rationale, you should only count long hood "S"s, of whic approx 14,000 were made (1967-1973).

1965-1967 - 10,723 all models

1967-1969 - 5,056 S model
1968-1969 - 6,618 T model
1968 - 11,610 L model
1969 - 2,826 E model

1970-1971 - 15,082 T model
1970-1971 - 4,927 E model
1970-1971 - 4,691 S model

1972-1973 - 16,933 T model
1972-1973 - 4,406 E model
1972-1973 - 5,094 S model
1973 - 1,590 RS model

Paul Frere

Total long noses made: 135,065



1964-67 911 (2.0) 10,723

1965-69 912 30,300

1967-69 911S (2.0) 5,056

1968-69 911T (2.0) 6,318
1968 911L (2.0) 11,610

1969 911E (2.0) 2,826

1970-71 911T (2.2) 15,082
1970-71 911E (2.2) 4,927
1970-71 911S (2.2) 4,691

1972-73 911T (2.4) 16,933
1972-73 911E (2.4 4,406
1972-73 911S (2.4) 5,094
1973 Carrera RS 1590^

1974 Carrera RS 3.0 109
1974-75 911 9,360

1976-77 911 7900

1974-77 911S 17, 124


1974-75 Carrera 2.7 3,353

1974-77 Turbo 3.0 3227

1976-77 Carrera 3.0 3691

1975 912E 1160 1971 2,099

1978-89 911 Turbo (3.3) 17,425

1978-79 911 SC
1980 911 SC
1981-83 911 SC Total 57,972

1984-89 Carrera 3.2 49,289

1984 SC-RS 20

1987 959 283^

1987-89 911 Club Sport 340

1989-93 Carrera 56,363

1991 Carrera 2 RS 2,364

1991-92 Turbo 4107

1992 Turbo S 80

1993 Carrera RS 3.8 129

1993-94 Turbo 3.6 1875

1994-95
1995 Carrera 4 Total 34,396

1994-96 993 Cup 327

1995-96 Carrera RS 1,123

1995-97 Turbo 8919^

1996-97 Carrera
1996-97 Carrera Tip
1996-97 Carrera 4
1996-97 Carrera 4S Total 34,846

1997 Carrera S 3580

1999 GT3 1450

[NYNick]

Talk about muffler drone...

[Matt Monson]

Forgot the 964 C4 lightweight.