when will the bubble pop ?

[nota]

I think we are in a early 911 bubble
and all bubbles pop sooner or later
so the question is when will it happen ?

not that the car will lose all value
but return to sane price levels
I understand racecars like a 550 or 904
or even the early 911S
but early 912 at more then a low mile 1990's 911 price ?
or a nice boxter ?

I think the insanity will end by fall

[galileo]

Good question, because supply will always be limited(not producing aircooled cars since 98) I think prices will level off but I dont think a bubble will pop. Once everyone gets "there car" I think it will just cool down. When muscle cars came crashing down it was because millions of those cars were manufactured and thousand were being restored to support the demand. The aircooled craze is a little different. But hey, I can be completely wrong

[cover]

I don't think air cooled prices are especially bubblelicious.
But the general economy might be.

[93nav]

Bubbles seem to go on for a lot longer and higher than you would think. That being said, if I could accurately predict bubbles I would probably be a billionaire!!!

[Sunroof]

Bubble is not going to pop! Has it popped for the 356? The problem is that you cannot buy a decent 356 for under 75K. So, the longhoods have made it to the top now and I expect will stay up there. As the longhoods increase they bring along the mid-years, SCs and Carreras and the ever popular 993. The way I see it, the longhoods are now at 356 status and the market has yet to settle down. Prices will remain high. Bubble? What bubble?

[SilberUrS6]

I guess the questions really to be answered:

What made the longhoods popular enough to command the prices they do? (The longhoods are driving the market.)

The other question follows from the first - what about longhoods will become unpopular such that the market for them will soften?

[COLB]

Musclecars and Porsches are apples and oranges.

Ford made 559,451 Mustangs in 1965 alone. That is more than all the 911s built in any generation combined.

Add Camaros, Firebirds, Chargers, Challengers, Cudas, GTOs, and the millions of lesser badged cars that can be easily "cloned" for the price conscious -- and you have a situation where supply can actually outpace demand for all except the rarest of options -- the top of the line motors, homologations, and actual race cars.

Now add single digit fuel economy, and aging out boomers.

Those factors don't apply to Porsches in the same way:

- Many fewer built
- Few real substitutes (what are the 70s and 80s sports car comparables?)
- Street & DD usable (20+ MPG)
- Broader, younger appeal (popularity peaked in the 1980s -- not 1960s)

THe 911 market still has legs.

[whiterabbit]

No bubble at all on air cooled cars. In fact demand is increasing.

[galileo]

↑↑ That was my point with the muscle cars. I specifically said" millions were manufactured" and implying that the muscle cars and the porsche are completely different. Thats the most recent car bubble I can think of.

[NYNick]

I kinda agree with COLB, but with some qualification.

The market for muscle cars is much larger than it is for Porsches. Always has been, even when they were being built. Smaller supply versus smaller demand, at least when you compare the apple market to the orange market, or vice versa.

The old guys (me) like the cars from the 50's and 60's. Honestly, you can get a good air-cooled right now for less than a good GTO, for example. I think some younger people are seeing the value there, and creating the air cooled demand, while the older well heeled crowd are seeing them as investments. I doubt anybody who now owns an air cooled will be losing any money on them down the road. And yes, it still has legs.

Bubble? Well, if you're late to any game, you're bound to get hurt.

Orange you glad you asked? ; )

Nick

[wgwollet]

Ummm....bubble

My only concern, because I like theses cars is the quote " once everyone gets their air cooled car, then what"? The market is driven by the LONGHOODS, very true. I now see very poorly done LONGHOODS for sell that would almost be parts cars 5 years earlier.

The Porsche World in the US is much smaller then muscle cars, and most US baby boomers identified with muscle cars (me). But I changed course when I bought me first Porsche about 10 years ago. But now with world wide interests the prices have been up...but I wonder who or how people can continue to afford $50,000 plus for air cooled cars? I think the one big issue is supply, it's difficult to find nice air cooled cars.....so prices continue..

[Mr.Lazza]

Porsches, compared to other period sports car like Ferrari, Aston Martin, Jaguar, Bentley, Lamborghini, Maserati... are the cheapest of the lot.
They won't reach Ferrari quotations (produced in very few numbers), but they will still grow in value, because understimated compared to other brands

[Sunroof]

The longhoods, many decades after the line ended (1973.5T) were sought after only by the purists. These were the VW air-cooled Beetle crowd. The cars were very prone to rust, were not exceptionally fast compared to the 2.7 of the 1974 - 1977 line or the 3.0's of the 1978 - 1983SC line. The newer models became quite popular compared to the older 911's (longhoods). Afterall, who did not like electric windows and mirrors, sculpted high back seats, flared wheel wells, factory rustproofing, etc, etc. Rust is what kept everyone at bay for sometime when looking to buy an older 911.

What brought on the sudden upsurge in longhood popularity I guess is a matter of nostalgia coupled with more simplistic engineering and of course the original model line that gave Porsche its great reputation. The sales brochures showed the cars going directly from the showroom to the track!! The longhood has reached 356 status on collectibility and price range. I feel this will not retreat and as the cars age the mid-years (74 -77), SC's (78 - 83) and the Carreras (84 - 89) will see increases in collectibility and price.

When I bought my 1973.5T over a dozen years ago at first I was reluctant because of the rust issues. Actually I was looking for a decent SC when I came upon a restored older 911 for a decent price. I took a gamble knowing about the rust issues, lackluster perfomance of the "T" model, the color Sepia Brown, which for years was considered here by Pleican Heads as a "deal killer" and the difficulty in finding parts, I almost backed off.

Today, I can say, my purchase was a wise one............so as a longhood owner, I will take the bubble anytime. Would'nt we all? Now would I pay upwards of 50K for a longhood today? Probably not, but I would not hesitate to pick up a nice SC or early Carerra for half that amount.

40 year Porsche Owner
Bob

[Matt Monson]

No bubble.

[COLB]

The Porsche World in the US is much smaller then muscle cars, and most US baby boomers identified with muscle cars (me). But I changed course when I bought me first Porsche about 10 years ago. But now with world wide interests the prices have been up.

This is a great point. Muscle cars are primarily a US phenomena. Europe is a huge part of Porsche demand. The muscle car market may be bigger, but the Porsche market is much bigger than just US demand.

Porsches, compared to other period sports car like Ferrari, Aston Martin, Jaguar, Bentley, Lamborghini, Maserati... are the cheapest of the lot.

Maserati quit making real sports cars in the mid-late '70s, and a lot of the post 73 cars (the Citroen hybrids) were pretty weak (Meraks, etc.) I don't see Bentley as being any more comparable than Rolls Royce. The last comparable Jag was the E-type. Astons are really GTs -- more comparable to 928s than 911s.

But your point is valid -- Ferrari and Lamborghini, and the '77 & earlier Maseratis -- add Lotus Esprits. There isn't much more out there. And Porsches are the cheapest to buy, cheapest to maintain, and probably the best engineered.

[speeder]

If it's not a bubble, can someone explain how they were so undervalued for so long? I'm not talking about during one short period of bad economic times but rather all through the last 35 years up until 2 years ago??

If you cannot answer that question, it's a bubble. If you do not agree, you don't know what a bubble is.

And I love the cars, BTW. I owned a "longhood" when some of you were still riding Big Wheels on the sidewalk.

[ficke]

[QUOTE=speeder;8016018]

If you cannot answer that question, it's a bubble. If you do not agree, you don't know what a bubble is.

QUOTE]

I guess you are the right thinking person? and to disagree with you is wrong? only to you.

I do not agree that we have a bubble, there is froth, but there is a lot of staying power to the increase in value of 911's.
911's were under appreciated for years and were viewed as a fall back car that could always be found, cheap. The price's were stagnate when other cars were rising and there was the gospel spread by people in the know, like Bruce Anderson, to buy the newest you can afford. Now we have a crop of younger people who think 65-89 911's are 'Classic' Porsche and do not even associate with 356 as being a Porsche. We also have old 356 guys who do not like to dice it up in modern traffic with their 356 and a early long hood has the feel of a simple early Porsche but with performance that can deal with in modern traffic.
long hood 911's have matched 356's in desirability and has a much broader market and I believe will never fall back to the cheap car slot. Water pumpers have nicely filled that. Even Boxster are fighting with 914's for the cheap track car position.

[NYNick]

Agreed.
A lot has happened in the last two years to the car market in general. Honestly, I don't think you can even discount Seinfeld's Collection as affecting the market upwardly. Not to mention the proliferation of car shows. The market has grown exponentially for new Porsches over the years, broadening the brand recognition. Is it too much of a stretch to think there are NEW Porsche aficionados out there these days?
And again, I really think these cars have just become known as great value to a lot more people. They were a niche car for a very, very long time, and priced accordingly.

People have come to realize that at $15-30K, you get a lot of car for the money.
Nick

[whiterabbit]

Originally Posted by speeder

If it's not a bubble, can someone explain how they were so undervalued for so long? I'm not talking about during one short period of bad economic times but rather all through the last 35 years up until 2 years ago??

If you cannot answer that question, it's a bubble. If you do not agree, you don't know what a bubble is.

And I love the cars, BTW. I owned a "longhood" when some of you were still riding Big Wheels on the sidewalk.

I think you mean impact bumper cars specifically? Longhoods have been going up for a long time. I have owned a few over the years. Personally I believe as they age the impact bumper cars are now viewed differently and considered classics. In the last year there have been many glowing magazine articles in places such as Octane which have increased collectors awareness and turned them into bonafied classics. Plus in Europe at least the earlier impact bumper cars are now eligible for historic events.

They have also always been worth a lot more overseas and finally we are waking up in the US to how undervalued they are here. Plus there are significantly less physically available in the US than ten years ago.

Also I think lots of folks are now buying as they see it as their last opportunity to get in to buy a car to keep for life. I still can't think of a better longterm prop than a 3.2 for 35k in excellent condition.

[COLB]

Originally Posted by speeder

If it's not a bubble, can someone explain how they were so undervalued for so long? I'm not talking about during one short period of bad economic times but rather all through the last 35 years up until 2 years ago??

If you cannot answer that question, it's a bubble. If you do not agree, you don't know what a bubble is.

And I love the cars, BTW. I owned a "longhood" when some of you were still riding Big Wheels on the sidewalk.

Why does anything go from undervalued to valuable?

They used to junk old race cars. Now anything with legit period race history is valuable -- even "cars" that are little more than old frames with a few bent, unoriginal panels.

Rusty 356s (especially coupes) were worth little for decades. Sure, they had avid followings of enthusiasts -- but they were cheap. Until they started becoming coveted by a wider audience in the early '80s -- when they were 20-25 years old. Is that a bubble? If so, it is a durable one -- that market has been climbing for 30+ years.